The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

bear66

Well-known member
Who was the virologist out of interest?

The euros?

These were some of the scenes from euro final day......


That was 14 days ago now. So we should be seeing a rise in cases now?

The same account made a prediction:

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1419361439303839753

Similar predictions have been made by anonymous twitter accounts (who have been spot on for the US) while Ferguson and Hayward predicted an inevitable 100,000 and (after a plateau) continued exponential growth respectively. Lets see who is right over the coming weeks. 'Delta' has shown an ascent of ~52 days in India, looks v similar for the UK......

https://twitter.com/districtai/status/1419359549933461505

Restrictions and 'lockdowns' are often credited with falling cases yet when places ease restrictions and cases continue to fall it is often overlooked/ignored. With (almost) no restrictions in place in the UK and bars, cubs open at full capacity the mathematicians and modelers have nowhere to hide this time. There should be a clear inflection/increase due to 'full re-opening' on July 19th / removal of mask mandate etc. I've been wrong before but lets see how it pans out........
Jeremy Farrar.
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 26 July, 5,722,298 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 24,950 (39,950 on corresponding day last week).

14 deaths were reported today (19 on corresponding day last week).

153,070 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 9 July).

46,589,211 have had a first dose vaccination. 25,759 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 37,287,384 have had a second dose. 126,725 second dose vaccinations today.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 24,950 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 29,173
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 5.6% to 36,125 per day, following 6.6% decrease yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 21.5% lower than one week ago (from 15.4% lower yesterday) and 10.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 21.2% higher yesterday and 80.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 14 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 28 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 1.1% to 63.6 per day, following 0.7% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 50.3% higher than one week ago (from 59.0% higher yesterday) and 122.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 121.7% higher yesterday and 131.3% higher 7 days ago)
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Something is happening as I said before, some people are saying its school holidays, some say its people not testing, but the figures are down around 55% in one week, when most experts said they were heading for between 100,000 and 200,000.

May be the figues will shoot up later this week after July 19th opening up, but it feels they are on a down trend at present.

Has anyone got the figures for how many people are tested every day.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Something is happening as I said before, some people are saying its school holidays, some say its people not testing, but the figures are down around 55% in one week, when most experts said they were heading for between 100,000 and 200,000.

May be the figues will shoot up later this week after July 19th opening up, but it feels they are on a down trend at present.

Has anyone got the figures for how many people are tested every day.
Virus tests per day
Screenshot_20210726-232445.jpg
It's the PCR positive tests that are falling far more quickly than the (schools) LFDs / LFDs plus PCR.

Screenshot_20210726-232920.jpg
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Something is happening as I said before, some people are saying its school holidays, some say its people not testing, but the figures are down around 55% in one week, when most experts said they were heading for between 100,000 and 200,000.

May be the figues will shoot up later this week after July 19th opening up, but it feels they are on a down trend at present.

Has anyone got the figures for how many people are tested every day.
Pretty much most of the guys I follow on twitter, who seem to know what they're on about seem to think we got to 45-50k due to an artificial bump from the Euro's, and I 100% agreee with that. Now I think we're just heading to where we would have been without that. It's hard to tell where that natural level would have been and it's likely not going to get time to settle before the impact of the 19th starts to take effect, which will more likely be ina week or so's time.

We were on about 8k cases when the Euro's started (for England on the 13/6), then four days after the line seemed to steepen, for a month, with a big push at the end a few days after the final (which 31m watched), peak cases was 4 days after the Final. It couldn't align any better to be honest.
A bit of the fast reduction could also be from reduction in schools, better weather and people getitn a bit nervous about 50k cases etc.
1627378503765.png
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Thats fascinating bear. The LFD tests give false negatives, am I recalling that correctly? It seems to me that cases are falling because PCR tests are falling... Or is it less people are asking for PCR tests?

I would imagine tests fall naturally once the virus is less prevalent. However the tests seem to drop off at a time when we were at a peak of positive tests.

very curious.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Thats fascinating bear. The LFD tests give false negatives, am I recalling that correctly? It seems to me that cases are falling because PCR tests are falling... Or is it less people are asking for PCR tests?

I would imagine tests fall naturally once the virus is less prevalent. However the tests seem to drop off at a time when we were at a peak of positive test
very curious.
Yes. Set to more likely give a false negative so false positives are less likely.

PCR tests have fallen off a little since mid-July. Fewer people with symptoms?

Screenshot_20210727-120958.jpg
 

Laughing

Well-known member
There are people on twitter who are genuinely upset that cases are falling.
Oddly enough, I sort of understand that in a perverse sort of way. There is fascination in how much we can screw up the human race. Too many apocalypse movies perhaps?
 

bear66

Well-known member
As of 9am on 27 July, 5,745,526 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 23,511 (46,558 on corresponding day last week).

131 deaths were reported today (96 on corresponding day last week).

153,342 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 16 July).

46,653,796 have had a first dose vaccination. 64,585 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 37,459,060 have had a second dose. 171,676 second dose vaccinations today.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:

• 23,511 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 24,950
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 9.1% to 32,833 per day, following 5.6% decrease yesterday (and 6th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 30.8% lower than one week ago (from 21.5% lower yesterday) and 2.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 10.8% higher yesterday and 78.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 131 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 14 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 7.9% to 68.6 per day, following 1.1% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 40.4% higher than one week ago (from 50.3% higher yesterday) and 125.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 122.5% higher yesterday and 140.8% higher 7 days ago)

Highest reported daily deaths since 17th March.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
There are people on twitter who are genuinely upset that cases are falling.
Who? Any one of the "big names" or just random trolls etc?

Most of the well known, relatively central/ reasonable lot that I follow say it's fairly unexpected but very, very, very welcome. I'd agree, I thought it might slow growth after the Euro's and between the 19th taking effect, but certainly didn't expect a halving, that's awesome.

Most seem to be trying to figure out why it has dropped, and seem to attribute that to a mix of:
Primarily:
Overinflation of R for mid Jun- Mid July (which appear in figures from late June to late July), due to the Euro's
Vaccinations in the most transmissible groups playing a big effect (R reduction)
Kids off (R reduction)
Heatwave (R reduction)
Infections have been high for a while, natural immunity going up (R reduction)
Infections have been high for a while, people being more careful/ going to the shops less or whatever (R reduction)

Secondarily:
People turning the app off, less flagged up for tests (although this isn't really a gain, as it's just going to lead to more unknonwn infections, and a higher CFR, but this will get shown in the seroprevalence studies)
Less PCR tests (I don't think this has much to do with it, as I think test numbers just follow cases, people don't test when they're not symptomatic, people get more tests when they're more symptomatic)

For me, I think it's mainly the Euro's and then a bit from the other points, it's like a perfect storm of R reduction, coming at the same time from an already high peak.

Now it's just a case of seeing what the 19th does, and that should start to come visible over the next few days, and in a couple of weeks we should know a fair value for R.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
I was taking to some american colleagues who are now concerned about the delta variant. We seem to be following the same path as India where the delta variant just seems to burn out quickly, for whatever reason.

It may be it just had a short shelf life. Let's hope. If not then we are in for a difficult winter.
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
I was taking to some american colleagues who are now concerned about the delta variant. We seem to be following the same path as India where the delta variant just seems to burn out quickly, for whatever reason.

It may be it just had a short shelf life. Let's hope. If not then we are in for a difficult winter.
I think it’s because it’s so virulent: infect too many people and a virus runs out of steam. As insane as it sounds letting it flood in from India may long term have been a good strategy. Get the wave over with. We did that with beta in January. Our peak was before everyone else because it mutated here
 
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