The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 22,885 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 20,890
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.0% to 22,148 per day, following 1.4% increase yesterday (and 56th increase in the past 59 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 21.5% higher than one week ago (from 24.2% higher yesterday) and 47.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 50.3% higher yesterday and 47.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 367 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 102 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 9.9% to 200 per day, following 1.8% increase yesterday (and 40th increase in the past 42 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 47.3% higher than one week ago (from 49.5% higher yesterday) and 144.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 151.4% higher yesterday and 154.4% higher 7 days ago)
 
Awful number of deaths today. Looks like the number of infections is stabilising which is good unless it is another problem with testing
 
bear66 said:
As of 9am on 27 October, 917,535 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 22,885.

367 deaths were reported today.

58,925 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate.

Testing capacity shot up to 447,000. Was the 500,000 promised by the end of October capacity or actual tests? (261,000 tests processed today.)

Hospitalised patients approaching 50% of the April peak. Admissions about a third of the peak.
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It still has averaged around 20k cases per day for the past 2 weeks, It does look to have peaked.

The death rate rise is catch up to the 20k and I expect that to stay around that mark for the next few weeks.

I hope I am right and it isn't false hope
 
slavens_holgate_fence said:
It still has averaged around 20k cases per day for the past 2 weeks, It does look to have peaked.

The death rate rise is catch up to the 20k and I expect that to stay around that mark for the next few weeks.

I hope I am right and it isn't false hope
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That seems to be the case. Hospitalisations are increasing at a faster rate than positives though, but hopefully survival rates will continue from June successes (see Good News thread).
 
First time the 7-day average for new deaths has been 200 per day since 3rd June. Highest number of deaths reported in a single day since 27th May.
 
BoroJake said:
Awful number of deaths today. Looks like the number of infections is stabilising which is good unless it is another problem with testing
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slavens_holgate_fence said:
It still has averaged around 20k cases per day for the past 2 weeks, It does look to have peaked.

The death rate rise is catch up to the 20k and I expect that to stay around that mark for the next few weeks.

I hope I am right and it isn't false hope
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We should be able to judge this tomorrow. Last Wednesday's figure was 26,688 new cases so anything lower than that and the 7-day average will fall for the first time in 30 days (ignoring the statistical correction two weeks ago that was caused by the 'catch up' reporting of 16,000 cases the previous week).
 
slavens_holgate_fence said:
It still has averaged around 20k cases per day for the past 2 weeks, It does look to have peaked.

The death rate rise is catch up to the 20k and I expect that to stay around that mark for the next few weeks.

I hope I am right and it isn't false hope
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I was thinking that, cases have been high for weeks but 7 day average has only risen slowly. Sadly, deaths will be catching up for a few weeks and look terrible.
 
Billy Horner said:
We should be able to judge this tomorrow. Last Wednesday's figure was 26,688 new cases so anything lower than that and the 7-day average will fall for the first time in 30 days (ignoring the statistical correction two weeks ago that was caused by the 'catch up' reporting of 16,000 cases the previous week).
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Yeah, I was going to say same thing, tomorrow is a big day for reported cases, seems like Wednesdays is the case peak recently.

Problem we have now though is delays to getting results, can only mean there's more positives wandering around unknowingly.
 
Statto1 said:
Yeah, I was going to say same thing, tomorrow is a big day for reported cases, seems like Wednesdays is the case peak recently.

Problem we have now though is delays to getting results, can only mean there's more positives wandering around unknowingly.
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Yes, Wednesday/Thursday for some reason.

Also, if you look at cases by specimen date there are some very strange patterns. The cases fall every day from 7th - 11th October before jumping up by more than 7,000 on 12th October. Then they fall again every day from 14th - 18th October, but jump by more than 11,000 on 19th October.

Must be administrative reasons for this I presume, but I'm not sure why.
 
BIG increase in daily hospital admissions in England on the latest date reported (25th October). Up by almost 200 (20%) in one day.

Up in every region, but biggest rise in numbers in North West, North East & Yorkshire and the Midlands. Highest proportional increases in East of England and South West regions.
 
Billy Horner said:
BIG increase in daily hospital admissions in England on the latest date reported (25th October). Up by almost 200 (20%) in one day.

Up in every region, but biggest rise in numbers in North West, North East & Yorkshire and the Midlands. Highest proportional increases in East of England and South West regions.
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Now that's a worry
 
Billy Horner said:
Yes, Wednesday/Thursday for some reason.

Also, if you look at cases by specimen date there are some very strange patterns. The cases fall every day from 7th - 11th October before jumping up by more than 7,000 on 12th October. Then they fall again every day from 14th - 18th October, but jump by more than 11,000 on 19th October.

Must be administrative reasons for this I presume, but I'm not sure why.
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I imagine it will administrative reasons.

Here is data from Spain (admittedly a week old).

1603829273067.png
We will follow a similar pattern
 
bear66 said:
267 deaths announced today. 7 day average up to 167. Still going up like us at the moment.

View attachment 7964

View attachment 7965
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Yup, and if you go by date of death you'll see a much more "smoothed out" version like the data direct from Spain. Without being flippant it is amazing how superimposable the data is for many european countries....

1603832039704.png

Countries with different cultures, population make-up etc..... very similar curves.

Note Germany has a much lower deaths per million but the 'timing' of the curve is similar. I don't know why their deaths are lower....... many reasons will be proposed I'm sure.... Better healthcare, better track and trace. Could it be a less susceptible population?
 
GazC_MFC said:
Everywhere is slower because measures are in place. They’ll be no exponential growth
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I don't think we will get exponential growth, but we haven't had this in winter yet. If we keep growing then testing will be overwhelmed, just like 24 hour turnaround is already overwhelmed. If any/ both of those happen then it could lift off, and lift off for a longer timeframe as there's no summer around the corner and we're unlikely to lock down as hard.

It might have already lifted off due to the 24 hour testing failing, we just won't see it as it's always on a delay.
 
Statto1 said:
I don't think we will get exponential growth, but we haven't had this in winter yet. If we keep growing then testing will be overwhelmed, just like 24 hour turnaround is already overwhelmed. If any/ both of those happen then it could lift off, and lift off for a longer timeframe as there's no summer around the corner and we're unlikely to lock down as hard.

It might have already lifted off due to the 24 hour testing failing, we just won't see it as it's always on a delay.
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Why do people keep mentioning "we haven't had winter yet" as though that is some kind of sole determinant that it "lift off".

We "locked down" after the peak of infections. Some will argue that people's self "distancing" had an impact before that (some businesses sent people to work from home before government advice, people were certainly using public transport less, pubs were dead in the lead up to the official "lockdown"). Maybe they did but I'm yet to see any data or evidence (not modeling!) which supports that. If you have some please do show me. To reiterate I was in support of the "restrictions" brought in knowing what I did then.



I obviously can't speak for the man but I suspect Edgar Hope Simpson will be spinning in his grave. If only he could jump out and slap some of these modelers and "global heath professors" around the head with his big red book.
 
T_A_D said:
Why do people keep mentioning "we haven't had winter yet" as though that is some kind of sole determinant that it "lift off".

We "locked down" after the peak of infections. Some will argue that people's self "distancing" had an impact before that (some businesses sent people to work from home before government advice, people were certainly using public transport less, pubs were dead in the lead up to the official "lockdown"). Maybe they did but I'm yet to see any data or evidence (not modeling!) which supports that. If you have some please do show me. To reiterate I was in support of the "restrictions" brought in knowing what I did then.



I obviously can't speak for the man but I suspect Edgar Hope Simpson will be spinning in his grave. If only he could jump out and slap some of these modelers and "global heath professors" around the head with his big red book.
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Where’s the evidence we peaked with cases
 
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