The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Actually, an example of a country that did get on top of things early (with data) ...... the Czech Republic.......

1603833393686.png

Tricky thing to control this kind of virus. They have now "locked down" again which I'm sure will be hailed as a success of "bringing things under control" when deaths peak, quite possibly in the next week or so.
 
T_A_D said:
Why do people keep mentioning "we haven't had winter yet" as though that is some kind of sole determinant that it "lift off".

We "locked down" after the peak of infections. Some will argue that people's self "distancing" had an impact before that (some businesses sent people to work from home before government advice, people were certainly using public transport less, pubs were dead in the lead up to the official "lockdown"). Maybe they did but I'm yet to see any data or evidence (not modeling!) which supports that. If you have some please do show me. To reiterate I was in support of the "restrictions" brought in knowing what I did then.

I obviously can't speak for the man but I suspect Edgar Hope Simpson will be spinning in his grave. If only he could jump out and slap some of these modelers and "global heath professors" around the head with his big red book.
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Why not? It's a disease which transmits better indoors, in winter people spend more time indoors.

I would say you're wrong, and that we locked down near or bang on peak infection.
Here is social distancing (purple) overlaid on deaths (red), obviously the death line needs off setting 20 days or so to the left, to factor how long it takes to die.

Sorry if it looks faint, I just overlaid the two graphs with transparency, for ease.

1603833734217.png

But this is it off-set by a month, for ease, it nearly marries up perfectly.
1603833848677.png
 
GazC_MFC said:
Where’s the evidence we peaked with cases
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I have posted extensively on this before so forgive me for not doing into great detail. The are obviously approximations to be made and again I would add that knowing this is hindsight. It wasn't known at the time and I think few people would criticise Whitty/government for introducing measures. However, what has happened since has been a complete sh**show of media fear, trashing of science (yes, lets just ignore much of the immune system exits - not even acknlowdge it and explain why we think it is not important in this case, just ignore it), and political agenda's (both sides of the spectrum)

Important not to reply on date of detected cases as we didn't have much testing at that point. Farr's law. Peak deaths (by date) were 8th April. Deaths lag (and yes, some debate here) infections by what, 21-28 days. Lets go on the shorter side, and we end up with peak infections around 16th March. Old princiiple but they often hold up. LSHTM also looked back at the data and came to a similar conclusion.

I remember that time well. I was at a family gathering and very nervous about taking my elderly mother and father as I had seen the data and knew where things were heading after seeing the data from Spain and Italy.

At that point we had no masks, little distancing, and a few warnings about washing our hands. What stopped the exponential growth?
 
I've posted this before but it is, to me and others, a very telling set of traces...... Peru (military style lockdown), Brazil (less so), Mexico (I have no idea what they did)....

1603835029346.png

Classic Edgar Hope Simpson.......

Central / South American countries with different approaches..... same result. You'll note the different shape to the European countries.
 
T_A_D said:
I've posted this before but it is, to me and others, a very telling set of traces...... Peru (military style lockdown), Brazil (less so), Mexico (I have no idea what they did)....

View attachment 7970

Classic Edgar Hope Simpson.......

Central / South American countries with different approaches..... same result. You'll note the different shape to the European countries.
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Peru locked down but very crowded housing and the streets crammed full of people queuing at banks explains what happened there (they are a cash only society and every bank had thousands queuing every day.).
 
T_A_D said:
Yup, and if you go by date of death you'll see a much more "smoothed out" version like the data direct from Spain. Without being flippant it is amazing how superimposable the data is for many european countries....

View attachment 7966

Countries with different cultures, population make-up etc..... very similar curves.

Note Germany has a much lower deaths per million but the 'timing' of the curve is similar. I don't know why their deaths are lower....... many reasons will be proposed I'm sure.... Better healthcare, better track and trace. Could it be a less susceptible population?
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The problem with date of case / death is it suggests that everything is good. A week later you find out it wasn't. Look at your highly misrepresentative graph of Spain for that.
 
Statto1 said:
I don't think we will get exponential growth, but we haven't had this in winter yet. If we keep growing then testing will be overwhelmed, just like 24 hour turnaround is already overwhelmed. If any/ both of those happen then it could lift off, and lift off for a longer timeframe as there's no summer around the corner and we're unlikely to lock down as hard.

It might have already lifted off due to the 24 hour testing failing, we just won't see it as it's always on a delay.
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The virus isn't seasonal though so I don't understand this it hasn't happened in winter yet?
 
T_A_D said:
Yup, and if you go by date of death you'll see a much more "smoothed out" version like the data direct from Spain. Without being flippant it is amazing how superimposable the data is for many european countries....

View attachment 7966

Countries with different cultures, population make-up etc..... very similar curves.

Note Germany has a much lower deaths per million but the 'timing' of the curve is similar. I don't know why their deaths are lower....... many reasons will be proposed I'm sure.... Better healthcare, better track and trace. Could it be a less susceptible population?
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Better health care, a working track and trace, a competent government and an understanding population
 
I'm not going all the way back to April digging the info out but from memory ST if someone had a positive test but died of say a heart attack they took the clinical diagnosis over the test.

Whereas here as you know legislation was passed to make covid a notifiable disease so regardless of clinical diagnosis if a person has a positive test it will be on the certificate.

I remember it really angered the daily express at the time something about Germans cheating and being Nazis 😉
 
Alvez_48 said:
I'm not going all the way back to April digging the info out but from memory ST if someone had a positive test but died of say a heart attack they took the clinical diagnosis over the test.

Whereas here as you know legislation was passed to make covid a notifiable disease so regardless of clinical diagnosis if a person has a positive test it will be on the certificate.

I remember it really angered the daily express at the time something about Germans cheating and being Nazis 😉
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to be fair that would be cheating, as it’s known that covid accelerates death for people with heart problems.

i think the big problem now for the U.K. is how do we prevent getting to some Even more unsavoury numbers when it comes deaths.
 
Alvez_48 said:
I remember it really angered the daily express at the time something about Germans cheating and being Nazis 😉
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That sounds very much like the daily express sort of response.

That being said. The Germans are still exceedingly lucky they have a working and appropriately costed track and trace system, a population that seems to understand what is required of them and, of course, a significantly more competent and less corrupt government than ourselves.
 
Jostler said:
Of course they are. We've never social distanced before because of Flu, so everything we've been doing to stop Covid will have a knock on effect. HAsn't stopped me getting 3 colds since September from the little one bringing them back from Nursery though.
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It surprises me when people like Randy, who argues strongly against lockdown measures, point out that flu cases are down, this proving the efficacy of lockdown measures!
 
SmallTown said:
It surprises me when people like Randy, who argues strongly against lockdown measures, point out that flu cases are down, this proving the efficacy of lockdown measures!
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Work has been done that shows actually covid is replacing the flu i.e. it's winning the evolutionary battle so to speak, not social distancing stopping the flu.. so don't be so quick to jump down Randy's throat boss.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Germany count deaths differently too 😉
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Doesn't really matter how they count it, people still died and the truth comes out in the excess deaths.

Germany had very little excess deaths compared to us (6% v 37%), and what excess death trend they did have pretty much married up with their recorded covid deaths. Sounds like they've under recorded (17.8k v 10k) and we just missed off a load (65k v 45k) of deaths (as we didn't test dead people), but they still handled it miles better than us, and probably will in the future. I expect due to their people being more obedient, better ran government and better track and trace etc. They might fund their healthcare better too, but I've not looked into that.

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People either die of covid and this just gets accepted ASAP, or people accept that people are turning up to hospitals who can't breathe, so they get treat by doctors , which means there's less doctors to treat other things. Both of these end up in more dead people, what ends in less dead people is less covid.
 
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