The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

GazC_MFC said:
Probably why cases in Stockholm are increasing, they increased in the U.K. for a while before we saw a real impact on hospitals and deaths
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You know it's been like there the whole time right?

You know they are averaging 2 deaths a day and have been for 2 months.

I'd actually expect a bigger spike and it might still happen for them with winter on route.
 
Alvez_48 said:
You know it's been like there the whole time right?

You know they are averaging 2 deaths a day and have been for 2 months.

I'd actually expect a bigger spike and it might still happen for them with winter on route.
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They still have measures in place and will continue you to do so.

there has to be a balance sure, you can still argue Sweden didn’t go far enough, especially on Stockholm
 
If hospital admissions have a direct correlation to deaths as a percentage then given where hospital admissions were yesterday we can already expect to see a death toll rise to 300-400 deaths per day. If the restrictions don’t curtail this it will continue to rise.
 
T_A_D said:
I don't have time answer all of your points right now (I still have Billy's from the other day to do too) but let me just pick out a couple for now:

"The problem with using this as a hook to hang your covid response coat on to is if it's wrong you kill a lot of people.

there are scientists that we can quote who agree with your viewpoint and those that agree with my viewpoint, Which are right? I don't know, but as I have said many times, I would rather lock down and be wrong than keep everything open and be wrong."

So what do you do? Lockdown until? ..... when? You will still have a susceptible population. Would you lock down everytime we have a flu season? Serious question because we also have some severe flu seasons (we had overflowing on hospital trolleys in 2018). Would you want to "test test test"? If not why not? Track and Trace? Hmmmm, track and trace the flu....geezzz.

Could you give me one example (with data) where a lockdown has 'worked' (I realise there could be different definitions of "worked". so worked in your view)?

"I could, of course, counter your Sweden argument with Vietnam, Sri-Lanka or Singapore. They all locked down and did much better than most. I could also counter the Sweden comparison with the fact that the uk has 10 times the population density of Sweden."

Excellent...... Vietnam, Sri-Lanka, Singapore. What do all of those countries have in common? Location. I have a little digging to do in a book about seasonality so will come back with data about this, but you make an assumption, which is that Sars-CoV-2 (or coronavirus's in general) circulates in those South east asian countries. Big assumption, any data? I'm going to dig some out.

So we are saying that all the south east asian countries did track and trace superbly and eliminated the virus and all the northern european countries were all useless at it? Hmmmm, maybe, I don't yet have the evidence, but I suspect (I could be wrong) that coronavirus's don't circulate in that area all that much. That would have implications on track and trace. I have no evidence on this, purely a theory.

Track and trace in the UK was doomed to fail. The virus was established in the UK early this year, maybe even late last year. We had very limited testing in Jan (any?), Feb, March (not a criticism) and so the virus build up chains of transmission we were never going to be able to track realistically.

And population density, yeah, I thought the same..... denisty, more contacts, more interactions...... but you can't ignore the data (well, you seem to want to!).... the graph of Sweden and UK overlap excellently, no impact. It is the beauty of graphs, I have shown these to people at work and it really hits home. See my graph on the keir starmer thread (i think) comparing Brazil, Mexico, Peru. Peru (super harsh lockdown), Brazil (mixed) as Bolsonaro encouarged opening up...... result: Not a blind bit of difference, they overlap almost perfectly.(different shape to northern europe). It is so striking.
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I still go back to the graphs re cases and deaths. I think we can safely assume that as we only tested a few back in Feb March the peak if we were to compae apples with apples with the graph today on cases where testing is so much greater would have been ten times larger. Hence the number of deaths. Yes I accept treatments are better but if that peak continues to rise then it is certain more deaths will occur. And at a rate we will all be alarmed at again.
 
GazC_MFC said:
They still have measures in place and will continue you to do so.

there has to be a balance sure, you can still argue Sweden didn’t go far enough, especially on Stockholm
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Sweden have a remarkably similar curve to the UK when you look at the outbreak and I'd be absolutely fine with Sweden's rules, the irony is people want strong leadership, well the Swedes showed strong leadership they said this is going be a long term thing so we're going to adopt a long term strategy, they stood firm and put the data out there for all to see when the world was pressuring them, when people like @Laughing were getting triggered they said no this is the strategy (I'm just kidding laughing mate 😉).
Yes they fecked up on care homes but so did a lot of others, they are currently in a far better place than most of Europe.

Interestingly I found out the average age of death for a man in Stockton is like 64 or something, that's absolutely horrendous. (Not for Covid I mean just in general)
 
Zoophonic said:
I still go back to the graphs re cases and deaths. I think we can safely assume that as we only tested a few back in Feb March the peak if we were to compae apples with apples with the graph today on cases where testing is so much greater would have been ten times larger. Hence the number of deaths. Yes I accept treatments are better but if that peak continues to rise then it is certain more deaths will occur. And at a rate we will all be alarmed at again.
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ye I’m in the mind that if we had the testing capacity we had now, we would be posting bigger positive test cases

if you had symptoms in March/April you were told to isolate, now you are told to get tested
 
Alvez_48 said:
Sweden have a remarkably similar curve to the UK when you look at the outbreak and I'd be absolutely fine with Sweden's rules, the irony is people want strong leadership, well the Swedes showed strong leadership they said this is going be a long term thing so we're going to adopt a long term strategy, they stood firm and put the data out there for all to see when the world was pressuring them, when people like @Laughing were getting triggered they said no this is the strategy (I'm just kidding laughing mate 😉).
Yes they fecked up on care homes but so did a lot of others, they are currently in a far better place than most of Europe.

Interestingly I found out the average age of death for a man in Stockton is like 64 or something, that's absolutely horrendous. (Not for Covid I mean just in general)
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i agree Sweden showed leadership and you can get behind a strategy when clear and concise in terms of articulating what you are trying to achieve.

I think we should have just implemented social distancing like Sweden, we would take a bigger hit as more dense and more cities

people are then given the choice of what risks they want to take. Ie if I’m 65/75/85 and want to see my grandkids, then the choice is mine and I know the rose.

not sure on this strategy how you protect care homes though, as workers are undoubtedly going to get infected and bring it in
 
GazC_MFC said:
i agree Sweden showed leadership and you can get behind a strategy when clear and concise in terms of articulating what you are trying to achieve.

I think we should have just implemented social distancing like Sweden, we would take a bigger hit as more dense and more cities

people are then given the choice of what risks they want to take. Ie if I’m 65/75/85 and want to see my grandkids, then the choice is mine and I know the rose.

not sure on this strategy how you protect care homes though, as workers are undoubtedly going to get infected and bring it in
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I am not a professional by any means when it comes to planning these things but you could take the billions spent on track and trace (we could have had 2 yes 2 fully equipped aircraft carriers for that price) and give a fraction of it to care home workers to bubble. I.e. offer them big bonuses to stay for 2/3 months at a time for instance.

Imagine 2 aircraft carriers for an excel spreadsheet 🤣. You've got to laugh or you'd go insane.
 
Alvez_48 said:
I am not a professional by any means when it comes to planning these things but you could take the billions spent on track and trace (we could have had 2 yes 2 fully equipped aircraft carriers for that price) and give a fraction of it to care home workers to bubble. I.e. offer them big bonuses to stay for 2/3 months at a time for instance.

Imagine 2 aircraft carriers for an excel spreadsheet 🤣. You've got to laugh or you'd go insane.
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🤣🤣 you do have to laugh when you out it like that

you could treat staff the same as icu, fully ppe with patients etc. Think it would be easier to bubble them like you say.
 
GazC_MFC said:
🤣🤣 you do have to laugh when you out it like that

you could treat staff the same as icu, fully ppe with patients etc. Think it would be easier to bubble them like you say.
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Was it someone on here who pointed out you could have an aircraft carrier, pay every pub forced to close £100000, buy Germanys working track and trace system AND have 4 billion left over
 
T_A_D said:
I don't have time answer all of your points right now (I still have Billy's from the other day to do too) but let me just pick out a couple for now:

"The problem with using this as a hook to hang your covid response coat on to is if it's wrong you kill a lot of people.

there are scientists that we can quote who agree with your viewpoint and those that agree with my viewpoint, Which are right? I don't know, but as I have said many times, I would rather lock down and be wrong than keep everything open and be wrong."

So what do you do? Lockdown until? ..... when? You will still have a susceptible population. Would you lock down everytime we have a flu season? Serious question because we also have some severe flu seasons (we had overflowing on hospital trolleys in 2018). Would you want to "test test test"? If not why not? Track and Trace? Hmmmm, track and trace the flu....geezzz.

Could you give me one example (with data) where a lockdown has 'worked' (I realise there could be different definitions of "worked". so worked in your view)?

"I could, of course, counter your Sweden argument with Vietnam, Sri-Lanka or Singapore. They all locked down and did much better than most. I could also counter the Sweden comparison with the fact that the uk has 10 times the population density of Sweden."

Excellent...... Vietnam, Sri-Lanka, Singapore. What do all of those countries have in common? Location. I have a little digging to do in a book about seasonality so will come back with data about this, but you make an assumption, which is that Sars-CoV-2 (or coronavirus's in general) circulates in those South east asian countries. Big assumption, any data? I'm going to dig some out.

So we are saying that all the south east asian countries did track and trace superbly and eliminated the virus and all the northern european countries were all useless at it? Hmmmm, maybe, I don't yet have the evidence, but I suspect (I could be wrong) that coronavirus's don't circulate in that area all that much. That would have implications on track and trace. I have no evidence on this, purely a theory.

Track and trace in the UK was doomed to fail. The virus was established in the UK early this year, maybe even late last year. We had very limited testing in Jan (any?), Feb, March (not a criticism) and so the virus build up chains of transmission we were never going to be able to track realistically.

And population density, yeah, I thought the same..... denisty, more contacts, more interactions...... but you can't ignore the data (well, you seem to want to!).... the graph of Sweden and UK overlap excellently, no impact. It is the beauty of graphs, I have shown these to people at work and it really hits home. See my graph on the keir starmer thread (i think) comparing Brazil, Mexico, Peru. Peru (super harsh lockdown), Brazil (mixed) as Bolsonaro encouarged opening up...... result: Not a blind bit of difference, they overlap almost perfectly.(different shape to northern europe). It is so striking.
Click to expand...

I don't want to lockdown TAD, I want test and trace to be effective, it isn't so we have limited strategies available with lockdown being one of them. Maybe we should have public announcements on the TV every hour about social distancing and mask wearing. Maybe we introduce tougher penalties and employ folks to enforce those penalties and maybe the government start leading by example. These would all help, but without any meaningful measures, you are left with lockdown. Don't confuse advocating for lockdown as being the same as thinking it's the best strategy, it isn't but with a crappy leadership it may be the only alternative.

Examples of where lockdown has worked: Germany, Turkey, Ukraine, all in the same geographical area as the UK all with better responses and outcomes than the UK.

You dismiss Asian countries because you think the virus doesn't circulate so well there. Maybe, where is the evidence. As for did these asian countries do track and trace better than the UK? You're having a giggle TAD. Singapore distributed small GPS devices to any vulnerable people who didn't have a smart phone, they started distributing track and trace wearables in June. On the 20th of March Singapore released their track and trace app.. so hell yeah, Singapore dealt with testing, tracking and tracing in orders of magnitude better than the UK. I haven't looked but I suspect the other countries have similar records.

Your assertion that track and trace was doomed because the virus was circulating at the beginning of the year may be right, but it doesn't explain why countries that had track and trace sorted by March have faired better, unless, of course, the virus doesn't spread in asia.

That leaves you with the argument that the curves in europe all look the same. Yep they do, and they will always look the same because the reason for the virus declining doesn't effect the shape of the graph, it effects the amplitude only, I thought this was obvious.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 19,724 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 17,234
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 5.3% to 15,767 per day, following 2.6% decrease yesterday (and 43rd increase in the past 46 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 21.3% higher than one week ago (from 24.8% higher yesterday) and 153.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 146.0% higher yesterday and 188.8% higher 7 days ago)
• 137 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, slightly down from 143 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 11.7% to 91 per day, following 13.2% increase yesterday (and 27th increase in the past 29 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 72.0% higher than one week ago (from 53.6% higher yesterday) and 127.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 132.0% higher yesterday and 109.0% higher 7 days ago)
 
Laughing said:
I don't want to lockdown TAD, I want test and trace to be effective, it isn't so we have limited strategies available with lockdown being one of them. Maybe we should have public announcements on the TV every hour about social distancing and mask wearing. Maybe we introduce tougher penalties and employ folks to enforce those penalties and maybe the government start leading by example. These would all help, but without any meaningful measures, you are left with lockdown. Don't confuse advocating for lockdown as being the same as thinking it's the best strategy, it isn't but with a crappy leadership it may be the only alternative.

Examples of where lockdown has worked: Germany, Turkey, Ukraine, all in the same geographical area as the UK all with better responses and outcomes than the UK.

You dismiss Asian countries because you think the virus doesn't circulate so well there. Maybe, where is the evidence. As for did these asian countries do track and trace better than the UK? You're having a giggle TAD. Singapore distributed small GPS devices to any vulnerable people who didn't have a smart phone, they started distributing track and trace wearables in June. On the 20th of March Singapore released their track and trace app.. so hell yeah, Singapore dealt with testing, tracking and tracing in orders of magnitude better than the UK. I haven't looked but I suspect the other countries have similar records.

Your assertion that track and trace was doomed because the virus was circulating at the beginning of the year may be right, but it doesn't explain why countries that had track and trace sorted by March have faired better, unless, of course, the virus doesn't spread in asia.

That leaves you with the argument that the curves in europe all look the same. Yep they do, and they will always look the same because the reason for the virus declining doesn't effect the shape of the graph, it effects the amplitude only, I thought this was obvious.
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Test and Trace doesn't work when the virus is now endemic. It's too slow a process.
 
RandySavage said:
Test and Trace doesn't work when the virus is now endemic. It's too slow a process.
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which I said RS, I was responding to TAD's misconception that I want lock down, I don't. I want a government on top of the problem. If they can't get on top of it lockdown is the only measure you have left.
 
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