Scathing attack on government Covid-19 response

There’s an article on sky news saying in Britain have we people in 30’s and 40’s and these would die without ventilation support.

It’s someone speaking anonymously....
 
GazC_MFC said:
Sure?
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Yes, based specifically on the criteria I mentioned that the graph indicated countries that have done extensive, early testing show a lower rate of increase in the number of cases than countries that had not. Anybody looking at the graph would notice that it shows South Korea with a rate of increase much more similar to that of Italy and Iran than those of Singapore and Japan. So in terms of the graph confirming the premise, yes they are an anomaly but as I also said, there are reasons for that.
 
Liamo said:
Yes, based specifically on the criteria I mentioned that the graph indicated countries that have done extensive, early testing show a lower rate of increase in the number of cases than countries that had not. Anybody looking at the graph would notice that it shows South Korea with a rate of increase much more similar to that of Italy and Iran than those of Singapore and Japan. So in terms of the graph confirming the premise, yes they are an anomaly but as I also said, there are reasons for that.
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Isn’t the anomaly due to one of the early contractors of the virus being a super spreader?
 
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FartingGnome said:
Change course or a quarter of a million people will die in a "catastrophic epidemic" of coronavirus - warnings do not come much starker than that.

The message came from researchers modelling how the disease will spread, how the NHS would be overwhelmed and how many would die.

The situation has shifted dramatically and as a result we are now facing the most profound changes to our daily lives in peacetime.

This realisation has happened only in the past few days.

However, it is long after other scientists and the World Health Organization had warned of the risks of not going all-out to stop the virus.
The crucial piece of evidence came from the scientists at Imperial College London who first realised the scale of the problem in China and whose advice is heavily influential in government.





Those PhD students, eh?
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FartingGnome said:
Change course or a quarter of a million people will die in a "catastrophic epidemic" of coronavirus - warnings do not come much starker than that.

The message came from researchers modelling how the disease will spread, how the NHS would be overwhelmed and how many would die.

The situation has shifted dramatically and as a result we are now facing the most profound changes to our daily lives in peacetime.

This realisation has happened only in the past few days.

However, it is long after other scientists and the World Health Organization had warned of the risks of not going all-out to stop the virus.
The crucial piece of evidence came from the scientists at Imperial College London who first realised the scale of the problem in China and whose advice is heavily influential in government.





Those PhD students, eh?
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-latest-deaths-uk-infection-flu-a9360271.html?amp
Published on 26th February

we seem to be still following the plan of action that was set out on 4th March
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk
 
I think that is a fair analysis of what has gone on from the perspective of foreign eyes.

As I said in another discussion on here, a progressive politician should be studying this period and using it as a basis for their future platform.
 
I still think the main failing in the way this is being handled in the UK (and the US for that matter) is the lack of widespread testing. As the head of the WHO head pointed out, the key to tackling this virus is: test, test, test. If you don't know who's got the virus, how many cases there are and where they're located, you're working blind.

One of the worst aspects of the failure to test in the UK is the refusal to screen health care workers even when they've been exposed to patients with coronavirus or have symptoms but only mild ones. This means you're letting possibly infected health care workers continue to treat some of the most vulnerable people in society (remember that according to some studies in China, up to 86% of cases may be asymptomatic). An NHS doctor talks about the failure to test in the article below:

NHS staff and CoVid-19 tests.

In China, they were able to get this under control because they tested every single person who showed even the slightest symptoms in special fever testing facilities, isolated from other hospital areas. After ruling out other causes like flu or bacterial pneumonia, they would test for the coronavirus and get the results back within four hours. See video below explaining how this worked.


I mentioned this before but if you don't do sufficient testing, and just isolate people without knowing whether they're actually infected or not, you're spending time and effort on possibly unnecessary measures while allowing other, potentially infected people to keep on spreading it.

Asking people to self-isolate at home can also be counter-productive as even when you're trying to be careful it can still get passed on to other family members - as the video about virus testing in China also mentions, 75-80% of cases there turned out to be from family members infecting each other. Having learned that, they started isolating people who were positive in separate facilities to avoid family transmission.
 
I work in Poland (generally) they went into lockdown when they had just 26 cases. The shut schools and uni's, theatres, cinemas and restaurants. If you look at their numbers, they have limited the deaths to 5 and have just 287 cases. Whilst it is climbing, 17% increase in confirmed cases in the last 24 hours. They have had no additional deaths in the last 3 days.

The UK shows a 26% increase in confirmed cases in the last 24 hours with a 31% increase in deaths.

Anyone who argues that the UK's strategy for handling covid 19 is well thought out, or argues that we will only know how effective it was after the dust has settled, are fooling themselves.

N.B. I could have picked any ofthe countries in lockdown, except Italy, and got very similar figures. Poland just locked down at the first signs of the virus within their borders.
 
Liamo said:
I still think the main failing in the way this is being handled in the UK (and the US for that matter) is the lack of widespread testing. As the head of the WHO head pointed out, the key to tackling this virus is: test, test, test. If you don't know who's got the virus, how many cases there are and where they're located, you're working blind.

One of the worst aspects of the failure to test in the UK is the refusal to screen health care workers even when they've been exposed to patients with coronavirus or have symptoms but only mild ones. This means you're letting possibly infected health care workers continue to treat some of the most vulnerable people in society (remember that according to some studies in China, up to 86% of cases may be asymptomatic). An NHS doctor talks about the failure to test in the article below:

NHS staff and CoVid-19 tests.

In China, they were able to get this under control because they tested every single person who showed even the slightest symptoms in special fever testing facilities, isolated from other hospital areas. After ruling out other causes like flu or bacterial pneumonia, they would test for the coronavirus and get the results back within four hours. See video below explaining how this worked.


I mentioned this before but if you don't do sufficient testing, and just isolate people without knowing whether they're actually infected or not, you're spending time and effort on possibly unnecessary measures while allowing other, potentially infected people to keep on spreading it.

Asking people to self-isolate at home can also be counter-productive as even when you're trying to be careful it can still get passed on to other family members - as the video about virus testing in China also mentions, 75-80% of cases there turned out to be from family members infecting each other. Having learned that, they started isolating people who were positive in separate facilities to avoid family transmission.
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only 4 countries have tested more people than the uk
 
ABHBORO said:
only 4 countries have tested more people than the uk
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That's hardly the best measure though is it? What's more important is the proportion of the population you're testing. The criteria for testing are also extremely important. As mentioned, if you're not testing health care staff even though you know they've been exposed, you're running the risk of accelerating the spread of the disease.

If you rank countries by the number of tests per million, the UK falls to 17th place.
IMG_20200319_154445.png
 
I think all stats on testing are hopelessly out of date. A lot of countries have introduced drive by testing where anyone can get tested but, in Germany, you have to them quarantine yourself till you get the result. Germany aren't even on the graph above.

Other countries like Taiwan haven't tested much because they tested early and contained the disease. Taiwan also introduced a daily self test for everyone. Go into fresh air, take a deep breath and hold for 10 seconds. If this is followed by breathlessness, coughing etc. there may be some fibrosis so isolate.
 
I've had it first hand from someone in the NHS who was displaying possible symptoms; nurse who was in charge of her ward- She was sent home for 14 days, before leaving she asked her manager to swab her and if it came back negative then she could be back in work after 2 days once the test comes back. He refused and said they don't want positive results as it'll increase the numbers and we want to keep them low so the government is clearly already suppressing the figures which is a complete and utter disgrace.
 
Liamo said:
That's hardly the best measure though is it? What's more important is the proportion of the population you're testing. The criteria for testing are also extremely important. As mentioned, if you're not testing health care staff even though you know they've been exposed, you're running the risk of accelerating the spread of the disease.

If you rank countries by the number of tests per million, the UK falls to 17th place.
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A country can only do a certain number of test a day. South Korea have been prised for the testing they have done 10k a day yet not on that list, China more test than any other country not on the list.
The UK is also at an earlier point in its outbreak so if you compare the countries at the same point the uk goes back towards the top again. The uk have carried out more test per million than Italy had at the same stage for example.

I agree health care staff should be a priority but you where also wanting widespread testing too. It ok say the government should do this and do that but we are in cold and flu season which have similar symptoms so how many tests would need to be done to test everybody with symptoms?
 
ABHBORO said:
A country can only do a certain number of test a day. South Korea have been prised for the testing they have done 10k a day yet not on that list, China more test than any other country not on the list.
The UK is also at an earlier point in its outbreak so if you compare the countries at the same point the uk goes back towards the top again. The uk have carried out more test per million than Italy had at the same stage for example.

I agree health care staff should be a priority but you where also wanting widespread testing too. It ok say the government should do this and do that but we are in cold and flu season which have similar symptoms so how many tests would need to be done to test everybody with symptoms?
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Have you got up to date statistics? The successful countries were testing in significant numbers in January and tracing every positive to source, keeping them in the containment phase. We gave that up at least three weeks ago. Anyone can get tested in the German drive bys. Private testing is big in a lot of countries and difficult to get any stats for. Test, test, test. If we can go from the ability to test 5000 to 10000 to 25000 a day by policy changes in a week, we could have done it at the right time.
 
bear66 said:
Have you got up to date statistics? The successful countries were testing in significant numbers in January and tracing every positive to source, keeping them in the containment phase. We gave that up at least three weeks ago. Anyone can get tested in the German drive bys. Private testing is big in a lot of countries and difficult to get any stats for. Test, test, test. If we can go from the ability to test 5000 to 10000 to 25000 a day by policy changes in a week, we could have done it at the right time.
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This is from 13th March less than a week ago
 

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