Need at least 52 points in 24 games to have an outside chance of auto.
So whats that 16 wins, and 4 draws and 4 defeats? That would be some run. That would still need one of those top two to blow up, say only get 40 points in 24 games. Carrick would have a 66% win rate and be off to be Real Madrids next manager if he did that.
Play offs probably 43 points....12 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats. That's more doable. That's still a 50% win rate for Carrick this season and would be normally seen as damned good form.