Play offs still on?

Nano said:
I think this is a great graph and shows what I have been trying to say. Look at the step trajectory we are currently on, that doesn't happen many times but we need to repeat what we've already done. It's going to be very difficult to sustain it enough to get above the yellow line. We will definitely have a sticky patch, it's impossible not to in the championship. I just think trending on that 50 point line for nearly 20 games makes it too big a job this year to get above 70 points.

If we do we're in for a great 2nd half of the season.
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Yes, we have over the last 8 games averaged more than 2 points a game (17 points in 8 matches), that's the kind of form Forest were on last year.

We would need to improve on that slightly to make top 2. So it's really, really difficult. Alternatively to make the play offs we can are ahead of the curve on the current form, carry on like this and we will comfortably reach the play offs. In fact we could do it with 2 games to spare I believe. Can we keep this form up? It'll be very tough.

Difficult run of 5 games coming up, we need anything above 9 points will be a bonus. Burnley (A), Wigan (H), Blackburn (A), Birmingham (A), Millwall (H) - I'd guess we are targeting Wigan and Birmingham as banker 3 points; Millwall as a big 6-point opportunity; and Blackburn and Burnley as free hits.
 
BoroMart said:
Yes, we have over the last 8 games averaged more than 2 points a game (17 points in 8 matches), that's the kind of form Forest were on last year.

We would need to improve on that slightly to make top 2. So it's really, really difficult. Alternatively to make the play offs we can are ahead of the curve on the current form, carry on like this and we will comfortably reach the play offs. In fact we could do it with 2 games to spare I believe. Can we keep this form up? It'll be very tough.

Difficult run of 5 games coming up, we need anything above 9 points will be a bonus. Burnley (A), Wigan (H), Blackburn (A), Birmingham (A), Millwall (H) - I'd guess we are targeting Wigan and Birmingham as banker 3 points; Millwall as a big 6-point opportunity; and Blackburn and Burnley as free hits.
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If we win the next 3 games, unlikely I know, we'll reach the 70 point target line. If we average 2 points per game, automatic promotion form, it'll take us 8 games to reach the line. If we only manage an average of 1.75 points per game it'll take us 16 games to reach the line. 1.5 points per game and we'll never get there.

Edit: Given that 75 points is usually reasonable for the playoffs at 2 points a game it'll take us 16 matches to reach a 75 point line and 1.75 points per game it'll take us 50 matches!
 
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chickenrunner said:
If we win the next 3 games, unlikely I know, we'll reach the 70 point target line. If we average 2 points per game, automatic promotion form, it'll take us 8 games to reach the line. If we only manage an average of 1.75 points per game it'll take us 16 games to reach the line. 1.5 points per game and we'll never get there.

Edit: Given that 75 points is usually reasonable for the playoffs at 2 points a game it'll take us 16 matches to reach a 75 point line and 1.75 points per game it'll take us 50 matches!
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Sorry, I’m sure it’s just me, but I don’t understand any of this post. 🤣
 
atypical_boro said:
Sorry, I’m sure it’s just me, but I don’t understand any of this post. 🤣
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He's saying that the expected trend line for automatic promotion (92 points) is 2 points a game. So after 22 games we would have 44 points, instead of 30. To get to the auto line would take a run averaging 2.75 points per game for the next 18 games. That's 16 wins and 2 draws.

The trend line for sure playoffs is about 1.63 points per game (75 points). So after 22 games we would have 36 points instead of 30.
To get to the 75 point play off trend line would take the next 16 matches at 2 points per game (2 points per game being auto promotion form).

The trend line for just about scraping into the playoffs (70 points) is 1.52 points per game. Getting to that line would take the next 18 games at 1.71 points per game or 10 games at an average 2 points per game.

So it's a pretty tall order to get to the playoffs, let alone automatic promotion. Kudos to Carrick if he can get there.
 
Soutra said:
He's saying that the expected trend line for automatic promotion (92 points) is 2 points a game. So after 22 games we would have 44 points, instead of 30. To get to the auto line would take a run averaging 2.75 points per game for the next 18 games. That's 16 wins and 2 draws.

The trend line for sure playoffs is about 1.63 points per game (75 points). So after 22 games we would have 36 points instead of 30.
To get to the 75 point play off trend line would take the next 16 matches at 2 points per game (2 points per game being auto promotion form).

The trend line for just about scraping into the playoffs (70 points) is 1.52 points per game. Getting to that line would take the next 18 games at 1.71 points per game or 10 games at an average 2 points per game.

So it's a pretty tall order to get to the playoffs, let alone automatic promotion. Kudos to Carrick if he can get there.
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Fair enough. But looking at it as 3-4 points gap with half the games to play, that seems very achievable. Obviously it assumes that we continue in play-off form though, as we are now, rather than the relegation form we were in under Chris “you don’t ave to ask me” Wilder.
 
Soutra said:
He's saying that the expected trend line for automatic promotion (92 points) is 2 points a game. So after 22 games we would have 44 points, instead of 30. To get to the auto line would take a run averaging 2.75 points per game for the next 18 games. That's 16 wins and 2 draws.

The trend line for sure playoffs is about 1.63 points per game (75 points). So after 22 games we would have 36 points instead of 30.
To get to the 75 point play off trend line would take the next 16 matches at 2 points per game (2 points per game being auto promotion form).

The trend line for just about scraping into the playoffs (70 points) is 1.52 points per game. Getting to that line would take the next 18 games at 1.71 points per game or 10 games at an average 2 points per game.

So it's a pretty tall order to get to the playoffs, let alone automatic promotion. Kudos to Carrick if he can get there.
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nutshell...we are still 6 points behind where we should be for play offs, on average.
 
we need to have another run of wins. or keep this one going for a bit longer. the odd slip up wont make to much difference in the long run. maybe lose next week, then win another 3 on the bounce. play offs we'll probably be in them if that happens.
 
dontheking said:
Think most of us thought that at the time. I said to my old man last night even the play offs feel like a bonus still. But dare to dream as they say.
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This is the best right now.. I can’t get enough.

We are peak boro, this is as good as it gets!
 
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