Omicron

[Uwefuchs]

Did that worst case scenario involve an asteroid hitting earth too? Completely ludicrous to even suggest 3000 deaths a day when the vast majority have two vaccines and everyone classed as vulnerable has been offered a booster. We didn’t get close to that figure when no one was vaccinated or had any immunity. If they realistically think that’s a possibility then we should be very worried as it would mean the vaccines are completely ineffective

I don't know it would be 3000 deaths a day, I'm just relaying information that I've seen suggested elsewhere. I'm just trying to make a point about what could potentially happen in a worst case scenario. I don't think its ludicrous to have a conversation where you look at potential scenarios and plan on how to mitigate them.

Bringing an asteroid into the conversation is ludicrous.

 

[Uwefuchs]

The reason you model multiple scenarios is so you can plot where you are against each scenario and apply appropriate measures.

I'm sure they'll be looking at multiple scenarios won't they?

What actual restrictions are we living with at the moment anyway? Mask wearing and covid passports/negative test status isn't really stopping most of us going about our normal lives. The current level of restriction is surely in place for the best case scenario with the new variant.

 

[Andy_W]

I don't know it would be 3000 deaths a day, I'm just relaying information that I've seen suggested elsewhere. I'm just trying to make a point about what could potentially happen in a worst case scenario. I don't think its ludicrous to have a conversation where you look at potential scenarios and plan on how to mitigate them.

Bringing an asteroid into the conversation is ludicrous.

Depends on the degree of "worst case scenario" though, and what this allows for. The worst case here shows 100% severity, which is meaning the vaccines don't work at all, which we know won't happen, so those worst case scenarios can't happen.

The central estimates and the width of the error bars on the ones assuming 10-20% severity are the most important, as well as trying to gauge what the public will do on their own.

 

[Andy_W]

I'm sure they'll be looking at multiple scenarios won't they?

What actual restrictions are we living with at the moment anyway? Mask wearing and covid passports/negative test status isn't really stopping most of us going about our normal lives. The current level of restriction is surely in place for the best case scenario with the new variant.

They've plotted 12 scenarios, and 4 variations on each of those, so basically 48 scenarios.

 

[Laughing]

I'm sure they'll be looking at multiple scenarios won't they?

What actual restrictions are we living with at the moment anyway? Mask wearing and covid passports/negative test status isn't really stopping most of us going about our normal lives. The current level of restriction is surely in place for the best case scenario with the new variant.

They have only modelled one, worst case scenario according to the twitter interview.

 

[uncle_rico]

I'm sure they'll be looking at multiple scenarios won't they?

What actual restrictions are we living with at the moment anyway? Mask wearing and covid passports/negative test status isn't really stopping most of us going about our normal lives. The current level of restriction is surely in place for the best case scenario with the new variant.

That’s the point they haven’t. They’ve only looked at worst case scenario, which results in lockdown, because that is all they have been asked to model by the Dept. of Health.

 

[FabioPorkpie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470468812512403460

Chise has liked this thread too. That crazy vaccine scientist she is.
Maybes @Billy Horner could break these graphs further down than Pieter has.

Suspicions confirmed.
This guy is part of PANDA

Anybody who has spent anytime looking at anti vax and covid misinformation groups will know who PANDA are. Think HART, GBD, Kennedy Jr, AIER, Yeadon, Smalley, Patton, Craig etc. The SA version and as such, should be taken with a massive pinch of salt and viewed with major suspicion. Sadly.

I hope he’s proven to be correct in time but my confidence in Omicron being inherently milder has just taken a hit now I know who this guy is.

 

[Randy]

Suspicions confirmed.
This guy is part of PANDA

Anybody who has spent anytime looking at anti vax and covid misinformation groups will know who PANDA are. Think HART, GBD, Kennedy Jr, AIER, Yeadon, Smalley, Patton, Craig etc. The SA version and as such, should be taken with a massive pinch of salt and viewed with major suspicion. Sadly.

I hope he’s proven to be correct in time but my confidence in Omicron being inherently milder has just taken a hit now I know who this guy is.

Patton?



**** me Fabio, he's been of the most central based stats guys throughout. You are letting your dislike of people blind you.

 

[Ted_DN38416]

I'm sure they'll be looking at multiple scenarios won't they?

What actual restrictions are we living with at the moment anyway? Mask wearing and covid passports/negative test status isn't really stopping most of us going about our normal lives. The current level of restriction is surely in place for the best case scenario with the new variant.

Sad how far we've fallen apart when mask wearing, a passport to go anywhere of significance and isolating is considered a normal way of life.

 

[The_Tiler]

Honestly thought the Spurs stadium would be empty tonight, what with Khan declaring an emergency in London.

 

[Muttley]

Whinge, whinge, whing... a passport to go anywhere of significance and isolating is considered a normal way of life.

Look up the word "Pandemic". This isn't "normal", not even close, but we'll get back there, wearing a bit of cloth on yerr fizzog and proving you are vaccinated or uninfected before entering a football ground or gig is not an erosion of your human rights.

 

[uncle_rico]

Look up the word "Pandemic". This isn't "normal", not even close, but we'll get back there, wearing a bit of cloth on yerr fizzog and proving you are vaccinated or uninfected before entering a football ground or gig is not an erosion of your human rights.

Not sure anyone is saying it is, but depriving people of life saving medical treatment and kids an education surely is?

 

[Laughing]

It seems to me that this pandemic has turned into a game of football with fans entrenched on either side, neither prepared to give an inch, for us or against us seems to be the cry from the hillside.

 

[Muttley]

Not sure anyone is saying it is, but depriving people of life saving medical treatment and kids an education surely is?

Which kids are being "deprived of their education"? The only ones I am aware of are those stricken by COVID.

On the subject of depriving people of medical treatment (life saving or otherwise) surely this is a very good reason to wear a mask, prove you are uninfected or vaccinated before attending large gatherings? Do these things so that limited resources can be more equitably allocated.

That is a frankly silly illogical argument.

 

[uncle_rico]

Which kids are being "deprived of their education"? The only ones I am aware of are those stricken by COVID.

On the subject of depriving people of medical treatment (life saving or otherwise) surely this is a very good reason to wear a mask, prove you are uninfected or vaccinated before attending large gatherings? Do these things so that limited resources can be more equitably allocated.

That is a frankly silly illogical argument.

Füćk me, are you being provocative for the sake of it or are you genuinely stupid? Every child was deprived of their education last year, and the effects are still very evident. Talk of another lockdown including school closures being very possible.

Have you seen how many cancer patients have had their treatment cancelled or delayed?

I guess if it doesn’t affect you, you won’t give a shït.

 

[Pak_Doo_Ik]

Which kids are being "deprived of their education"? The only ones I am aware of are those stricken by COVID.

On the subject of depriving people of medical treatment (life saving or otherwise) surely this is a very good reason to wear a mask, prove you are uninfected or vaccinated before attending large gatherings? Do these things so that limited resources can be more equitably allocated.

That is a frankly silly illogical argument.

My son was deprived of education during both lockdowns and when I took him out of school for 4 days when he was 8 (2017) I got letter from the head teacher informing me that I was to be fined because my child missing 4 days of education would take up to 9 months to catch up.

During lockdown(s) I think he missed in excess of 100 days of education, luckily because he never caught up the 4 missed days he can’t do the maths to work out how long that will take to catch up/

 

[Muttley]

Always nice to have a reasoned argument...

You used the present tense about the deprivation of education. You are of course right some kids missed out on several months of their education last year.

Have you seen how many cancer patients have had their treatment cancelled or delayed?

No. Do you have the numbers? I know that nearly 150,000 families have lost someone to COVID in this country and (according to estimates in The Economist) something in the region of 20,000,000 worldwide.

What are you proposing? I'm struggling to understand what you think we should be doing. No masks, free association? What do you want to do?

 

[SmallTown]

Sad how far we've fallen apart when mask wearing, a passport to go anywhere of significance and isolating is considered a normal way of life.

Not really. I don’t get why snowflakes get so upset about mask wearing. It’s the tiniest minor inconvenience and it’ll probably help. It’s such a strange thing to be so vehemently against

 

[Randy]

My son was deprived of education during both lockdowns and when I took him out of school for 4 days when he was 8 (2017) I got letter from the head teacher informing me that I was to be fined because my child missing 4 days of education would take up to 9 months to catch up.

During lockdown(s) I think he missed in excess of 100 days of education, luckily because he never caught up the 4 missed days he can’t do the maths to work out how long that will take to catch up/

Ah but Pak there are those who claim those who moan about schools been closed are only moaning because they don't have a babysitter for their kids 6-7 hours a day. (Which is a lie).

There are numerous reports out now about children been setback because of the school closures. This is bound to have a roll on effect as they get older for the vast majority of kids.

With regards to schools/local authorities punishing parents for taking kids out of school for holidays, I don't think it will ever happen again.

 

[Ted_DN38416]

Not really. I don’t get why snowflakes get so upset about mask wearing. It’s the tiniest minor inconvenience and it’ll probably help. It’s such a strange thing to be so vehemently against

Whos being a snowflake or being upset? Im stating a fact. You and others, zzz for example seem to get facts and opinion regularly confused and mistakenly believe that you have the right to tell others what to do, advocate for the removal of basic rights and somehow have it in your heads that youre some sort of avatar or ombudsman of social morals. No offence but youre a bunch of idiots