Oh god, “STOP THE BOATS” is their slogan

No, not really, I'm not comparing now to then, I'm just looking at examples really, The examples show public feeling at the time, and the width of that margin, and time to go suggest it's already pretty much in the bag.

Effectively what I mean is the margin of the lead, with how long it would take to chalk that, transferred over to odds, suggests that Labour are now massively odds on to win, and with a majority.

For example:
When was the last time Labour had a seat projection map like this, or an equvalent? Never?
View attachment 54333
I don't think it's happened, or it's equivalent in my lifetime.

Then as far as electoral probability, when has it ever looked like this?

View attachment 54334

Labour look a shoe in at 1.25 for most seats, and 1.64 for overall majority, which is why I'm not laying off my bets at 2.1 and 4.6 from August 22. That's why I was highlighting those numbers previously. I backed them then, and backed what I was saying then, and said those odds would come in, and all the anti-starmer folk were saying the opposite. Now they're still trying to say the same things, or now say polling means nothing, it does when the numbers look like they do now.
I think the shortest odds Corbyn ever got to winning the most seats was 4.0!
Can't see the Tories turning around that projection.

I've said before in the past, even the common man and woman who don't really deep dive into politics will probably vote Labour at the next general election purely because they want a change from the constant **** show they see on the news, in the streets and in their homes.
 
Andy since it’s obviously escaped your attention Labours policies are what we are discussing. We don’t have to wait for a manifesto to know Labour want to make brexit work and don’t want to be in the SM/CU or that Labour want to use private corporations to run the NHS or even to see a pattern that when the Tories move right so does labour

And I don’t have a problem with polls I just think 2 years out tells us nothing

This is the 1992 polling which had Labour on approximately 50% and Tories being on the low end of 30%

And the Tories pulled it back and won.

See, I think Labour do want to be in the SM and CU, the key is they know that this is the worst time to push for it, just like probably pushing for it in their first term might be reckless (for voting for them, not EU membership). They're actually thinking about what they're doing for once. They also know a lot of the red wall seats have a lot of folk who think voting to be poorer, will somehow make them better off. They're sort of protecting some of their voters from themselves (and far-right media influence), for now, which I get.

To be honest, I even think Sunak does, but it's a hot potato for him also, and not something he can push for either yet, but he's making small steps. Now they've realised they need foreign labour (they opened construction up to it today), they and their voters will realise we have to have immigration/ freedom of movement. So with that they will no longer see a downside to SM and CU membership. The caveat that SM and CU came with FOM, used to be what they used to shoot down the SM and CU, but they can't do that now. Everyone knows immigration was the main thing why we ended up leaving, and it's not stopping. They might even paint it like "so seeing as we now have to have the bad (immigration, in the eyes of leavers), why not take the good too (SM and CU)".

The worst time to buy things back is when they're expensive, and there's a big difference between actively selling something off and not being able to buy it back as you simply don't have the money. You might think they're the same, but I don't.

You see a pattern because you have a narrative that makes you want to look for one. I saw a pattern that Labour never win an election when they don't control the centre, the thing is, my pattern is real.

The Tories moved right and labour moved to be openly less left, or basically moving back to where they where when they last won an election.

2 years says a lot when you're projected nearly 500 seats, having come from having 200.
 
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Can't see the Tories turning around that projection.

I've said before in the past, even the common man and woman who don't really deep dive into politics will probably vote Labour at the next general election purely because they want a change from the constant **** show they see on the news, in the streets and in their homes.
I would agree with you on that.

This is not a criticism of Labour or Keir Starmer, but what I find fascinating is that we don’t know how a Labour government will cope, what it will look like, in the social media age. There was no Twitter or Instagram, no TikTok, no iPhone(not sure they were out when Brown left office). We live in an age of content, content, content. The age of relentless information. It’s very hard to compare the days of Blair and Brown to now, the world is very different.

It will be interesting to see how Labour cope with the intense scrutiny, the blanket coverage, the absolutely mental pace with which the news cycle moves now. When Blair and Brown were in, for example, the Owen Paterson scandal would’ve been on the news for a whole week. It would’ve been THE political story and would’ve ended in his resignation. Now it was done within a day. The next thing was already happening before that story had even been properly covered, let alone dealt with properly.

It’s not a criticism of anyone really, just more of a general wondering about how the next Labour government cope in the modern world. It’s sort of why I have reservations about the party inching rightwards I suppose, because once those Tory f*ckers in the press starting on you you’re going to have double down and double down again. I can’t see how a government, any government, can ease things to the left in those circumstances. How do you turn back after you’ve started down a particular road when you’re being savagely torn apart by the newspaper barons and their dogsbodies?

In fact the financial crash of 2008 is the root cause of much of the current sh*tstorm IMO. It exposed the flaws of a system we’ve been told will look after us our whole lives. That blew the system up. The vacuum has been filled by the far right, as it always is in such extreme circumstances. We’ve been drifting right ever since. I think that’s when Farage stated showing his face. Those politics have become quite mainstream because there’s been a lack of meaningful opposition to them across the board at political level. Those politics now dictate mainstream Tory policy and positioning.

We have austerity because of that crash. Nobody talks about it any more. We’ve been in austerity for 13 years. It’s not even a talking point. Has anyone ever heard Sunak even say the word austerity? Is ending austerity even a part of Labour’s five-point mission?

This is a rambling post because my thoughts aren’t properly formulated or organised. But I think we essentially live in a vacuum of leadership. Of vision. Of compassion. Of decency. I think this comes from the top down. I feel like Labour have become too close to the Tories in terms of public messaging.

I’m not saying they’re Tory-lite of whatever, but there’s a more than one reason Gary Lineker is being pilloried. It’s partly because he’s a BBC man on good money, but it’s partly because there’s a vacuum in terms of opposition on compassionate, human and moral grounds. On this issue, he FEELS like the opposition. He is positioned as so by the news media because he’s the only one calling it out for what it is, or daring to say what we all know to be true. He’s getting this treatment because he is right.

We also live in a nation where showing compassion, expressing concern, hoping for better, asking for services to be funded properly, expecting the truth - standard things in any functioning democracy - is seen as ‘left wing’. It’s tragic.

As I say, a ramble. But I do think we are f*cked. I really, really hope a Starmer government can begin to sort out some of this mess but I just don’t have a great deal of faith or trust in them. I have to be honest.
 
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I would agree with you on that.

This is not a criticism of Labour or Keir Starmer, but what I find fascinating is that we don’t know how a Labour government will cope, what it will look like, in the social media age. There was no Twitter or Instagram, no TikTok, no iPhone(not sure they were out when Brown left office). We live in an age of content, content, content. The age of relentless information. It’s very hard to compare the days of Blair and Brown to now, the world is very different.

It will be interesting to see how Labour cope with the intense scrutiny, the blanket coverage, the absolutely mental pace with which the news cycle moves now. When Blair and Brown were in, for example, the Owen Paterson scandal would’ve been on the news for a whole week. It would’ve been THE political story and would’ve ended in his resignation. Now it was done within a day. The next thing was already happening before that story had even been properly covered, let alone dealt with properly.

It’s not a criticism of anyone really, just more of a general wondering about how the next Labour government cope in the modern world. It’s sort of why I have reservations about the party inching rightwards I suppose, because once those Tory f*ckers in the press starting on you you’re going to have double down and double down again. I can’t see how a government, any government, can ease things to the left in those circumstances. How do you turn back after you’ve started down a particular road when you’re being savagely torn apart by the newspaper barons and their dogsbodies?

In fact the financial crash of 2008 is the root cause of much of the current sh*tstorm IMO. It exposed the flaws of a system we’ve been told will look after us our whole lives. That blew the system up. The vacuum has been filled by the far right, as it always is in such extreme circumstances. We’ve been drifting right ever since. I think that’s when Farage stated showing his face. Those politics have become quite mainstream because there’s been a lack of meaningful opposition to them across the board at political level. Those politics now dictate mainstream Tory policy and positioning.

We have austerity because of that crash. Nobody talks about it any more. We’ve been in austerity for 13 years. It’s not even a talking point. Has anyone ever heard Sunak even say the word austerity? Is ending austerity even a part of Labour’s five-point mission?

This is a rambling post because my thoughts aren’t properly formulated or organised. But I think we essentially live in a vacuum of leadership. Of vision. Of compassion. Of decency. I think this comes from the top down. I feel like Labour have become too close to the Tories in terms of public messaging.

I’m not saying they’re Tory-lite of whatever, but there’s a more than one reason Gary Lineker is being pilloried. It’s partly because he’s a BBC man on good money, but it’s partly because there’s a vacuum in terms of opposition on compassionate, human and moral grounds. On this issue, he FEELS like the opposition. He is positioned as so by the news media because he’s the only one calling it out for what it is, or daring to say what we all know to be true. He’s getting this treatment because he is right.

We also live in a nation where showing compassion, expressing concern, hoping for better, asking for services to be funded properly, expecting the truth - standard things in any functioning democracy - is seen as ‘left wing’. It’s tragic.

As I say, a ramble. But I do think we are f*cked. I really, really hope a Starmer government can begin to sort out some of this mess but I just don’t have a great deal of faith or trust in them. I have to be honest.

Good points.

I think we went through a bad period, which was perfectly timed for the right in all honesty, but I think they've gone way too far with it, and it's come back to bite them on the ****.

Keep in mind that back in 2008 there was still heavy use of print media, and we only really had facebook as the main social media platform. Facebook was dominated by older users, and with that dominated by far-right talk, social media dominated by the older folk and those born in earlier times really didn't help things, and there was no real answer to that from the left. Any new young users joining facebook would get basically flooded with crap from older people, no wonder they stopped using it, or just didn't start.

The likes of facebook have no real direct line to experts either, if someone posts some crap, it's random guy v some other random guy, one might be right (and posting crap) and the other left (and posting truth/ reality), but neither have much credible expertise, so their opinions end up carrying the same weight, which they shouldn't. It's not like Twitter for example, where people have direct links to actual experts etc, it was never perfect but it was better, until musk came along, but the experts haven't left still, which is good.

Another problem with social media is it takes 2 seconds to make something up, yet it takes at least two minutes to prove something wrong, and the one proving it wrong is expected to give evidence, and then that evidence gets ignored, it's mad.

Thankfully now, younger folk use different social media from older folk, so the influence in that way will die off, this should work out better for the left.

I think back in the day, people were less reluctant to boot people off their facebook or whatever, where as now people are more willing to boot people, and don't really care if they get booted themselves.

I think if we had just kept MySpace, and it just stayed with younger folk, then things could have been a bit different, but as the age spread of social media use went up, it also moved to pick up more older people, who tend to lean further right.
 
Good points.

I think we went through a bad period, which was perfectly timed for the right in all honesty, but I think they've gone way too far with it, and it's come back to bite them on the ****.

Keep in mind that back in 2008 there was still heavy use of print media, and we only really had facebook as the main social media platform. Facebook was dominated by older users, and with that dominated by far-right talk, social media dominated by the older folk and those born in earlier times really didn't help things, and there was no real answer to that from the left. Any new young users joining facebook would get basically flooded with crap from older people, no wonder they stopped using it, or just didn't start.

The likes of facebook have no real direct line to experts either, if someone posts some crap, it's random guy v some other random guy, one might be right (and posting crap) and the other left (and posting truth/ reality), but neither have much credible expertise, so their opinions end up carrying the same weight, which they shouldn't. It's not like Twitter for example, where people have direct links to actual experts etc, it was never perfect but it was better, until musk came along, but the experts haven't left still, which is good.

Another problem with social media is it takes 2 seconds to make something up, yet it takes at least two minutes to prove something wrong, and the one proving it wrong is expected to give evidence, and then that evidence gets ignored, it's mad.

Thankfully now, younger folk use different social media from older folk, so the influence in that way will die off, this should work out better for the left.

I think back in the day, people were less reluctant to boot people off their facebook or whatever, where as now people are more willing to boot people, and don't really care if they get booted themselves.

I think if we had just kept MySpace, and it just stayed with younger folk, then things could have been a bit different, but as the age spread of social media use went up, it also moved to pick up more older people, who tend to lean further right.
I think my point about social media is more to do with how journalists use it. Or people who write opinion pieces for a range of right-wing publications. Social media storms and Twitter storms and pile-ones didn’t exist last time Labour were in office. The media landscape was different. Was the door between Google and the Conservatives, the top level of government, open as fluidly as it is now for example? That control of information, the control of the narrative. The right have weaponised technology and used it to drag things to the right, which has seen journalists go with them for various reasons,

There was also no GB News and the like back then. UKIP were a fringe group. I think Facebook was still quite new in 2008. I don’t think older people were on it then, it was more young people posting photos and personal information and messages and writing on walls. And then they gravitated towards Instagram a bit further down the line, when parents started posting on Facebook.

My point is sort of this - no Labour leader has governed in a truly social media age. The right own the newspapers and the social media platforms. A big chunk of the battleground going into elections now, and when in office, is online. You notice this when you log off for a while. You think the stuff you read on Twitter is what everyone is talking about but it isn’t really. How many people are actually bashing stuff out on Twitter all day? Compare that to how many journalists are on there, as a percentage. That’s the world they live in, all the blue ticks talking to each other and liking their own posts.

Those journalists and opinion writers live no more in the real world than the politicians and business owners and property owners that govern us, hence when things move to the right they are going along with it because they only talk to each other or their kids’ friends’ parents in posh supermarkets. They are actually responsible for quite a lot of this damage IMO. This wreckage we have to sift through every day.

They’ve spent over a decade trashing anyone who holds a different opinion. The politicians and the news media have become absolutely relentless in crushing ALL opposition and dissent, to the point where now we’re watching the leaders of the two main parties arguing about the practicalities of adopting a flagship BNP policy.

I think it was the SNP who called it out for what it is yesterday lunchtime, no others did as far as I’ve read. It’s another reason why Lineker is headline news. Those writing for newspapers and presenting current affairs shows can quote Lineker and pontificate about whether what he says was right, because it means they don’t have to give their opinion. “Wow, Lineker said the 1930s!” Well, yes. He’s right to. But we don’t have that. We don’t start from a place of fact. But these people shape opinions and shape the public consciousness.

Another ramble, sorry. But I do think this stuff matters. What has happened this week is a nadir. It’s a cesspit. It tells us a lot about what’s happened over the past 10-15 years. The world is insanely different now to what it was when Blair first won, and in 2008.

And still, nobody is talking about 13 years of brutal, ideological austerity.
 
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Won’t be long before the flag shagging Tory MPs replace their background pictures of the Royal Family with Adolf Hitler.

They also seem to have this odd medical condition where they can’t stop shaking their heads when people talk facts and truth.

I absolutely abhor the horrible coonts!
 
I think my point about social media is more to do with how journalists use it. Or people who write opinion pieces for a range of right-wing publications. Social media storms and Twitter storms and pile-ones didn’t exist last time Labour were in office. The media landscape was different. Was the door between Google and the Conservatives, the top level of government, open as fluidly as it is now for example? That control of information, the control of the narrative. The right have weaponised technology and used it to drag things to the right, which has seen journalists go with them for various reasons,

There was also no GB News and the like back then. UKIP were a fringe group. I think Facebook was still quite new in 2008. I don’t think older people were on it then, it was more young people posting photos and personal information and messages and writing on walls. And then they gravitated towards Instagram a bit further down the line, when parents started posting on Facebook.

My point is sort of this - no Labour leader has governed in a truly social media age. The right own the newspapers and the social media platforms. A big chunk of the battleground going into elections now, and when in office, is online. You notice this when you log off for a while. You think the stuff you read on Twitter is what everyone is talking about but it isn’t really. How many people are actually bashing stuff out on Twitter all day? Compare that to how many journalists are on there, as a percentage. That’s the world they live in, all the blue ticks talking to each other and liking their own posts.

Those journalists and opinion writers live no more in the real world than the politicians and business owners and property owners that govern us, hence when things move to the right they are going along with it because they only talk to each other or their kids’ friends’ parents in posh supermarkets. They are actually responsible for quite a lot of this damage IMO. This wreckage we have to sift through every day.

They’ve spent over a decade trashing anyone who holds a different opinion. The politicians and the news media have become absolutely relentless in crushing ALL opposition and dissent, to the point where now we’re watching the leaders of the two main parties arguing about the practicalities of adopting a flagship BNP policy.

I think it was the SNP who called it out for what it is yesterday lunchtime, no others did as far as I’ve read. It’s another reason why Lineker is headline news. Those writing for newspapers and presenting current affairs shows can quote Lineker and pontificate about whether what he says was right, because it means they don’t have to give their opinion. “Wow, Lineker said the 1930s!” Well, yes. He’s right to. But we don’t have that. We don’t start from a place of fact. But these people shape opinions and shape the public consciousness.

Another ramble, sorry. But I do think this stuff matters. What has happened this week is a nadir. It’s a cesspit. It tells us a lot about what’s happened over the past 10-15 years. The world is insanely different now to what it was when Blair first won, and in 2008.

And still, nobody is talking about 13 years of brutal, ideological austerity.
You're absolutely spot on, Viv. The fact this is being discussed in terms of practicality and has people even contemplating whether it's acceptable shows how far the Overton window has been shifted as we've been gradually fed more of this stuff and ground down to acceptance. I remember uproar across the political spectrum at the idea of platforming Nick Griffin, something he would've been proud of is now on a lectern in front of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It's government policy.

This is rivers of blood rhetoric, it's fascistic. Yet somehow there's people eager to defend it and implement it, at the highest level of government. Where would they go next? Where would it end?

I think it's a desperate move and I sincerely hope that the country is not as morally bankrupt as it is financially and rejects this vile nonsense.

I want a Labour party who attacks this for what it is, I don't even care if they need to stoke patriotism to do it. This is the kind of rhetoric our country has rejected every time it has reared its ugly head, we've defeated it at war. And here it is, as a last desperate attempt to scare you into voting for a party clinging to power. Appeal to the decency of the British people.
 
I think my point about social media is more to do with how journalists use it. Or people who write opinion pieces for a range of right-wing publications. Social media storms and Twitter storms and pile-ones didn’t exist last time Labour were in office. The media landscape was different. Was the door between Google and the Conservatives, the top level of government, open as fluidly as it is now for example? That control of information, the control of the narrative. The right have weaponised technology and used it to drag things to the right, which has seen journalists go with them for various reasons,

There was also no GB News and the like back then. UKIP were a fringe group. I think Facebook was still quite new in 2008. I don’t think older people were on it then, it was more young people posting photos and personal information and messages and writing on walls. And then they gravitated towards Instagram a bit further down the line, when parents started posting on Facebook.

My point is sort of this - no Labour leader has governed in a truly social media age. The right own the newspapers and the social media platforms. A big chunk of the battleground going into elections now, and when in office, is online. You notice this when you log off for a while. You think the stuff you read on Twitter is what everyone is talking about but it isn’t really. How many people are actually bashing stuff out on Twitter all day? Compare that to how many journalists are on there, as a percentage. That’s the world they live in, all the blue ticks talking to each other and liking their own posts.

Those journalists and opinion writers live no more in the real world than the politicians and business owners and property owners that govern us, hence when things move to the right they are going along with it because they only talk to each other or their kids’ friends’ parents in posh supermarkets. They are actually responsible for quite a lot of this damage IMO. This wreckage we have to sift through every day.

They’ve spent over a decade trashing anyone who holds a different opinion. The politicians and the news media have become absolutely relentless in crushing ALL opposition and dissent, to the point where now we’re watching the leaders of the two main parties arguing about the practicalities of adopting a flagship BNP policy.

I think it was the SNP who called it out for what it is yesterday lunchtime, no others did as far as I’ve read. It’s another reason why Lineker is headline news. Those writing for newspapers and presenting current affairs shows can quote Lineker and pontificate about whether what he says was right, because it means they don’t have to give their opinion. “Wow, Lineker said the 1930s!” Well, yes. He’s right to. But we don’t have that. We don’t start from a place of fact. But these people shape opinions and shape the public consciousness.

Another ramble, sorry. But I do think this stuff matters. What has happened this week is a nadir. It’s a cesspit. It tells us a lot about what’s happened over the past 10-15 years. The world is insanely different now to what it was when Blair first won, and in 2008.

And still, nobody is talking about 13 years of brutal, ideological austerity.
Yeah, I know what you mean, and I agree, I was just providing additional points etc.

I just mean more that when social media really took off for all age groups, and even up to the brexit vote, everyone was still largely using only facebook, from what I can remember. The rise of Instagram, tik tok, and whatever else have diluted the effect the right can have on other users. Same with Whatsapp too, it's took people away from messenger (which requires a facebook login). Nearly everyone I know who first moved from myspace to facebook, or who just started on facebook as a mid 20's-30's has since almost ditched it. Some of the right have ditched it too, but gone to more "underground" platforms, full of conspiracy nuts, which most will never see (which is good, they can stay there).

Journalists do use SM, but now the media options are more varied/ less limited, and people are less likely to be almost forced into looking at media they don't really like etc. It's not like the old days where most news was print news, which was heavily biased, it's just as easy to get news from a source similar to how you think, or you can use twitter etc to tailor that (to a degree).

I'm not fussed about GB news, the centre and left don't watch it, and neither do the right really, only the far right. It's good that they watch that, it stops them from going mad on other news sources. The way I see it is they're just moving to narrower and narrower sources, which are sources that 90% of people will give zero credit to.

In 2005/6 nearly every person mid 20's was on facebook (most migrated from myspace), and by 2008 that had moved on to 30's and 40's. By 2010 it was everyone, from what I can remember. You're right about the news sharing mind, that wasn't happening much in 2005-2008, but all facebook is now is ads, news pages and people sharing crap, it's not really an app where people post what they're doing day to day, like they used to. This is why I don't bother with it now, used to post nearly every day, now post something maybe 5 times a year.

I don't think JC/ Labour knew what to do about SM, they seemed a bit out of touch with it, but the Tories really knew what to do with it, and especially vote leave in 2015. They specifically used it to nail the voters who they could turn, as they were the only voters worth spending budget on (a lot more bang for buck). It was clever from vote leave to be honest, I'll give them that. I think Labour and other parties have since learned from this, they seem more in touch, and more modernised, and they have to be.

I think things are changing in a way, where before people were kind of forced into seeing far-right crap all the time, where as now, you only need to see a lot of that if you actually want to (or if you want to go and fight it), and you can effectively fill your news with things more in line with how you think.

People aren't mentioning Austerity now, as they've done even worse since the main brunt of that in 2010-15. I can sort of get reigning the budget in from 2010-2015 etc, and Labour would have had to cut back also, but they way the Tories did that was poor of course. What they've done since Cameron (or even May I suppose) went though is an absolute joke, even by their low standards, and I think the vast majority of people have had enough of it.

If (when) Labour absolutely batter the Tories in the election, the Tories will have to soften up a hell of a lot to get votes back (Sunak knows this), and I think this will soften the right media up too. They tried the far right thing, thinking brexit was a rise of the far right, but it isn't, it's just made most realise the far right are just a small, and vocal minority, who are full of ****.
 
I see we are giving the French another 200milliiin - I’d love to know what they are doing with our cash as there are still record numbers crossing the channel. It’s a good job for them it’s not performance related pay.
 
I see we are giving the French another 200milliiin - I’d love to know what they are doing with our cash as there are still record numbers crossing the channel. It’s a good job for them it’s not performance related pay.
Why? They stop around half of the crossings at their end.
 
Nobody but the tory core voters think this is a good idea. They are doing the exact opposite of labour and trying to appeal only to their voter base. You can only assume that they are trying to avoid a wipeout at the next election and know it will not create anything like a majority.

I know they can't run an election on the economy, education, the nhs or education but they never can, yet do so time and again.

This is something they have got badly wrong.
 
I don't get it from any standpoint, even as a purely populist thing.

They're going to end up with even more people than would otherwise be the case being in limbo.

"Unfortunately you aren't welcome in this country. We are going to send you back to your own country. Where are you from?"

"Sorry, can't tell you."

"Ok, we'll send you to Rwanda then. As we can only send 200 a year, you're currently 10,000th on the waiting list, although we don't know when we're sending the first 200."
 
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