Laughing
Well-known member
I thought that was genius.It's your referencewax on, wax off and all that.
Oh god, “STOP THE BOATS” is their slogan
- Thread starter viv_andersons_nana
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r00fie1
Well-known member
Bed with no Horlix for you.Did it not make sense the first time? I am joking don't get your thong in a twist, old man.
Laughing
Well-known member
I have always hated horlix. It's vile.Bed with no Horlix for you.
On a different subject I am surprised a practical man, such as yourself is so against starmer. He is a long way from perfect, but also a mile to the left of the current bunch.
Not what the man himself said last year.
Keir Starmer admits little difference between Labour and Tories on immigration
KEIR Starmer has admitted there is “not a great deal” of difference between Labour and the Conservatives on immigration.
www.thenational.scot
Unravel_Morrison
Well-known member
Twas just a joke.
Unravel_Morrison
Well-known member
Thats fair but Blair if he was running now would get the same criticism, although he'd smile a lot more.
I had a similar background but before Blair came into power.
I was brought up in Saltburn, a relatively affluent place and we still had a school under threat of closure and classes being taught in prefabs.
r00fie1
Well-known member
Good morning young man.
Its not a matter of being "against" a particular politician - its their politics which is the focus for me.
His betrayal of his "10 pledges" within months of becoming leader, his threatening MPs for supporting Trades Union members on picket lines, suppressing local democracy in the Party, parachuting his staffers MP`s into constituencies, the continued expulsion of socialist Jews and anti-racists and his failure to deal with islamaphobia and racism in the party is just unacceptible. He is deceitful and untrustworthy - a chamelion. His politics are the biggest obstacle to change for the better for ordinary people. His politics are that he can manage austerity and privatisation better than the Tory`s. Like changing deck-chairs on the Titanic. Not for me.
Its not a matter of being "against" a particular politician - its their politics which is the focus for me.
His betrayal of his "10 pledges" within months of becoming leader, his threatening MPs for supporting Trades Union members on picket lines, suppressing local democracy in the Party, parachuting his staffers MP`s into constituencies, the continued expulsion of socialist Jews and anti-racists and his failure to deal with islamaphobia and racism in the party is just unacceptible. He is deceitful and untrustworthy - a chamelion. His politics are the biggest obstacle to change for the better for ordinary people. His politics are that he can manage austerity and privatisation better than the Tory`s. Like changing deck-chairs on the Titanic. Not for me.
Laughing
Well-known member
If you continue to talk.... You know what carry on. I can't be bothered and you don't listen.Not what the man himself said last year.
Keir Starmer admits little difference between Labour and Tories on immigration
KEIR Starmer has admitted there is “not a great deal” of difference between Labour and the Conservatives on immigration.
Laughing
Well-known member
Good morning yourself. So what's the solution?
I'm not sure what you're getting at. Is there some point you've made that I've neglected to respond to? Apologies if so.If it's the balance thing, I simply disagree. My view of the last 15 or so years of British politics is that if politicians want to bring about some kind of change they actually have to talk about it. Support for Scottish independence was much lower before the 2014 referendum and months of politicians talking about it. Support for leaving the EU was much lower before the 2016 referendum and months of politiciabs talking about it. If we want a socialised economy, we need politicians to talk about it. There's no "balanced" route there, with Labour politicians slandering trade unions and mimicing the tories 'tough' rhetoric on immigration in my opinion.
r00fie1
Well-known member
Politics is about flux, about communication, about forming policy, principles and being pro-active. For me, politics starts at the grassroots, not in Parliament. "Solution" is not a principle I adhere to - because politics is not about definites. Its about change. Any political party is its members, notr its leader. the leader is a figurehead: its not "their" party. For me, the aim of politics is to educate, agitate and organise - starting from local tenants and residents associations upwards. Politics is about inclusion - not exclusion. It means asking straight questions, like why have members accepted donations from private healthcare providers, weapons firms and NGO`s with their own agenda. It means working with partners - including those who donate to the party - like trades unions. It also means the leader is transparent, accountable and scrutinised by the members. It means a democratic structure in a party - not ruled by a bureaucratic autocracy - dominated by an agenda, influenced by foreign governments and lobby groups. ........so much more, we could debate all day
Andy_W
Well-known member
Absolutely ludicrous false equivalence.In defence of Stu I used to read on here only the far right supported being outside the CU/SM but when Starmer announced that was his position it was met on here like it was a vote winner and amazing
When I read the NHS was going to be run by private corporations if we elected another conservative Government it was absolutely shocking until Starmer said the same thing then it became worth sacrificing the NHS to kick the Tories out
When Johnson was being criticised (rightly) as a liar and being dishonest it was again terrible for democracy but then the excuses start for Starmer as it was as things changed. It’s ok
Same for strikes. He began by supporting the NHS staff, railway workers, unions etc but then the counter argument on here is he has to do what the right wing press wants to win. It’s not he’s moving right, it’s just the left has moved away
The point is he’s one step behind the Tories. Let’s not pretend the party is left wing and there won’t be any disagreements
The question is will the people supporting Starmer feel so strongly when Labour shift right again or will they keep refusing to acknowledge the change and again start to defend it?
As for SM/ CU, these two are VERY different:
1 - Voting to leave the UK to get immigrants out (although not really), even though it meant taking us out of the SM and CU, among many other things which will ultimately be bad
2 - Not pushing for a vote (against what was a majority) to try and reverse the above, as it could mean another loss (or a much smaller win), giving another 5 years of power, or less control to those largely pushing for option 1. Those pushing for option 1 have caused a catastrophe in every other area they control. Starmer, Labour and nearly all of us would prefer to be in the SM and CU, but finally, Starmer and Labour have come to realise what tactics and timing are. Starmer was (and still is) a lot more pro EU/ SM/ CU than the previous guy.
As for the NHS, these two are also VERY different:
1 - Being pro-selling the NHS off for 13 years, plus for the next two, and then more in the next 5. This has meant a lot of it sold off already and planning to sell more. Having these areas being run by private companies is bad, if you have poor control over them, or if you're using them to get backhanders.
2 - Not being pro-buying those 13 years of selling back, when we're absolutely crippled with debt, and have bigger problems to sort out. Private companies can run things better than public ones, and they often do, but they need to be controlled and have the right contracts in place, which I would expect Labour to do better, as hopefully they won't be dishing out contracts to line their own pockets. You can still increase staffing numbers and funding, and improve care, without buying areas back. Again it's timing, and we don't have the money to buy everything and fix everything, it's not going to happen, it will take many terms.
Liars:
Johnson was and is a liar, there's no doubt about that, he said he would do things, had the power to do them, and didn't do them. For some he did the opposite. I'm not sure which lies Starmer is supposed to have made, he's not in power in the UK, and we've not had a vote on Labour control since the leadership vote, and a lot has changed since then.
Strikes, again more false equivalence:
1 - Trying to stop people striking, and putting laws in place to prevent it.
2 - Not wanting MP's on the picket line, which is fair enough I think. Let the people have power to strike, but no need to have MP's there, I'm not sure what this is achieving. What happens if they were striking with Labour in power, would the MP's be still stood by them then? The best way for Labour to support ALL of the working class, is to get in power, and with a load of the country right leaning, having MP's on picket lines won't help. Having MP's on picket lines it's no gain for likely pain, i.e a net loss for Labour, and ALL the working class.
He's one step behind the Tories? How many steps behind was Corbyn? Who was the last one to be steps ahead? Blair? Did you all support him? I could maybe understand this when Labour were behind in the polls, like early 21 with the vaccine rollout pushing Tory numbers, but to say Labour are one step behind, when they're predicted over 400 seats is laughable. Starmer's got the Tories in his pocket, the tactics have been almost perfect.
The party is roughly centre left, but we'll know more when the manifesto comes out. They're also hoovering up votes in the centre, where most people sit. Starmer's a lot more left-wing than the tories, and Labour now have a hell of a lot more chance of enacting some left-sided policies than the last guy in charge. We tried the left guy last time, and the result of that was 8 years of the furthest right Tory government I've known (and still 2 more to come). The last time Labour won was with a centre left guy who also controlled the centre, and that time period was a lot better than what we've had in the last 8 years.
Andy_W
Well-known member
He's always been pro-EU, and that's not changed. What has changed is how he has to be about that due to his job, and his job is winning an election and then trying to fix some of this mess. His job isn't to be a heckler, who would provide no meaningful opposition to the Tories.First off Starmer is not pro EU. His politics are based on what’s best for his career...
Secondly the point is that Labour under Starmer are constantly adopting Tory and even Reform policies. Blair was smart to not show the left the door before he got elected. But what are Labour saying they will be better at stopping the boats than the Tories?
And his poll lead is exactly that. A poll lead; It’s a prediction or guess
Labour don't adopt policies, not now, they're not in charge. Which Tory policies/ actions in their manifesto, have Labour put into theirs?
Sure, Labour can pick some things to not fight on, but that doesn't mean they're thinking in the same way, not by a long shot.
Plus, two sides can implement policies very differently, even if they were actually worded the same, and the directions they can go from that can be polar opposites.
Strange how the anti-starmer folk were mentioning the Tory poll lead back early 21, when the vaccine was being rolled out?
Polls are there to detect the current thinking of the UK, and you can also get trends from that, they're not bang on but they're very close.
For example:
Labour were predicted to get about 250 seats in 2017 I think, and they got around 260 (close)
Labour were predicted to get about 200 in 2019 and that's what they got (close)
Now they're predicted 400+, they're likely to get around double what the previous guy had, not bad going for 3 years in the job.
If you don't like surveys, maybe look at the betting markets, they're usually a pretty accurate reflection of the odds at that time.
Labour are 1.25 for most seats, implied probability of 80%. They were 2.1 in Aug 22
Tories are 5.0 for most seats, implied probability of 20%
Labour are 1.64 for overall majority, implied probability of 61%. They were 4.6 in Aug 22
Tories are 9.0 for overall majority, implied odds of 11%
Jonny Ingbar
Well-known member
Blair was smart when getting into bed with Rupert Murdoch, that's what won Labour the election.
newyddion
Well-known member
or was it the late great John Smith that actually won the election for Tony Blair?
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FishofContemplation
Well-known member
A bit apples and oranges. You’re comparing what look like final week or exit poll numbers for 17 and 19 with polls 22 months out (potentially).
A comparison with the last guy who was three years in with two to go is more appropriate. It’s still favourable, and does show a decent job being done, but a bit more sobering.
newyddion
Well-known member
Why is a shift to the left completely out of the question? Why do we not have a centre left political party to choose from? Labour has gone to the dogs and the starmtroopers.In defence of Stu I used to read on here only the far right supported being outside the CU/SM but when Starmer announced that was his position it was met on here like it was a vote winner and amazing
When I read the NHS was going to be run by private corporations if we elected another conservative Government it was absolutely shocking until Starmer said the same thing then it became worth sacrificing the NHS to kick the Tories out
When Johnson was being criticised (rightly) as a liar and being dishonest it was again terrible for democracy but then the excuses start for Starmer as it was as things changed. It’s ok
Same for strikes. He began by supporting the NHS staff, railway workers, unions etc but then the counter argument on here is he has to do what the right wing press wants to win. It’s not he’s moving right, it’s just the left has moved away
The point is he’s one step behind the Tories. Let’s not pretend the party is left wing and there won’t be any disagreements
The question is will the people supporting Starmer feel so strongly when Labour shift right again or will they keep refusing to acknowledge the change and again start to defend it?
When all the MPs from Labour resigned or jumped ship they should have been deselected, no way on earth should we have been in a position where so many MPs were going rogue and not representing that for which they were voted in.
The Liberal Democrats is the perfect party for the likes of Starmer, Hodge, Philips, Streeting etc..
Personally I think both Labour and the Liberal Democrats should be rebranded..
Labour’s to take the name ‘Democrats’ keep the socialists, bring back the membership and perhaps even bring in the Greens. Liberal Democrats to shorten their name to The Liberal Party and take on on the right wing Labour MPs.. in a two party system the Liberals can take on the Conservatives and the Democrats can run in strong opposition.
Andy_W
Well-known member
No, not really, I'm not comparing now to then, I'm just looking at examples really, The examples show public feeling at the time, and the width of that margin, and time to go suggest it's already pretty much in the bag.
Effectively what I mean is the margin of the lead, with how long it would take to chalk that, transferred over to odds, suggests that Labour are now massively odds on to win, and with a majority.
For example:
When was the last time Labour had a seat projection map like this, or an equvalent? Never?
I don't think it's happened, or it's equivalent in my lifetime.
Then as far as electoral probability, when has it ever looked like this?
Labour look a shoe in at 1.25 for most seats, and 1.64 for overall majority, which is why I'm not laying off my bets at 2.1 and 4.6 from August 22. That's why I was highlighting those numbers previously. I backed them then, and backed what I was saying then, and said those odds would come in, and all the anti-starmer folk were saying the opposite. Now they're still trying to say the same things, or now say polling means nothing, it does when the numbers look like they do now.
I think the shortest odds Corbyn ever got to winning the most seats was 4.0!