National Lockdown

National Lockdown ASAP

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 58.7%
  • No

    Votes: 26 41.3%

  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .

Norman_Conquest

Well-known member
No for me. I think the genie is well and truly out of the bottle now. A lockdown would either be too short and then it'd flare up again or too long and further ruin the economy
Catch 22 mate, if only we knew the answer.

I think it is inevitable that we will be put into a national lockdown due to the inept way the government have dealt with the whole kit and caboodle.
 

Mendieta420

Active member
No for me. I think the genie is well and truly out of the bottle now. A lockdown would either be too short and then it'd flare up again or too long and further ruin the economy
Having most of the country in the highest tier of restrictions for the next 6-8 months will do far more damage than a 2-3 weeks lockdown and back with another full opening.
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
What's changed your mind may I ask mate?
Its not a financial thing strangely. More the slow reaction of the government. When sage announced there should be a fire breaker 2 week lockdown it made sense. Cases were low back then and we could have got them down to a really manageable amount. The cases have been rising massively since then and now it's too late. Any lockdown will just see us prolonging the agony.
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
Its not a financial thing strangely. More the slow reaction of the government. When sage announced there should be a fire breaker 2 week lockdown it made sense. Cases were low back then and we could have got them down to a really manageable amount. The cases have been rising massively since then and now it's too late. Any lockdown will just see us prolonging the agony.
I should add i am happy we keep certain restrictions such as social distancing/limits of people indoors and mask wearing just to at least try and stem the rise. I'm afraid we are stuck with the disease though.
 

T_A_D

Active member
Having most of the country in the highest tier of restrictions for the next 6-8 months will do far more damage than a 2-3 weeks lockdown and back with another full opening.

I respectfully think you are very naive if you think a 2-3 lockdown will achieve anything. Cases in places like Nottingham have been falling steadily for a while (even before we went through the "tiers") but that doesn't fit the narrative of "surge in cases" and "exponential growth everywhere". Sadly infections (serious ones, not just "cases") that are occurring now will show up as deaths in 3 weeks time or so.

The government have just published this document regarding interpretation of "positive" results from the PCR tests. I think it was Fabio who highlighted it elsewhere. I'm not going to go into the implications here but it is worth discussion elsewhere.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ycle_Threshold__Ct__in_SARS-CoV-2_RT-PCR_.pdf

SAGE and government have been pushing out the fear message for a long time. Instead of treating the public like adults it has treated them like children and, in my opinion, heightened hysteria (not helped by the media).

I believe further restrictions will be brought in (though I don't think they should be). Once in restrictions you can expect them for months I would say.

If SAGE genuinely believe that 90% are still susceptible then we are f**ked. Not from the virus (though serious) but from their actions. It seems like John Edmunds does genuinely think only 7% (based on antibodies alone) have been exposed/infected. If they stick with that thinking then I have no idea when we will get out of this mess. The imperial "modeling" has these up and down "cycles" of restrictions even through summer! I can't believe I was taken in by this stuff. Looking now at their modeling vs how coronavirus' transmit and their seasonality it is staggering that this modeling has been used to guide nations responses.
 

T_A_D

Active member
I`ve yet to see an exit strategy for Local Lockdowns never mind a National one so it`s a no for me too.

This is a very good point. Nothing mentioned about criteria for exiting a "local lockdown" yet Labour MPs seem happy to take some money and have further restrictions put in place even in areas with falling "case" numbers.

Do the government want cities to leave "lockdown"?
 

coluka

Well-known member
Pays for your funeral? I have been drinking

Noted 😉 Nevertheless, whilst that can be true, Council Tax payers can do that for you too. If anyone passes without sufficient resources and no other person steps forward with reasonable responsibility and/or ability to fund, the Local Authority steps in to fund a basic funeral.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
It occurs to me that we have been so coddled we have forgotten what it means when someone says no. Our grandparents fought in a war to free the world. Wives had no way to talk to husband, kids had no way to talk to dad. Today we live in a connected world, we are asked to reduce contact, right or wrong we are much less resiliant than we used to be.

Johnson should have mobilised a nation not divided a nation.

We have a charmed life now enjoy it.
 

Artie Fufkin

Well-known member
Its not a financial thing strangely. More the slow reaction of the government. When sage announced there should be a fire breaker 2 week lockdown it made sense. Cases were low back then and we could have got them down to a really manageable amount. The cases have been rising massively since then and now it's too late. Any lockdown will just see us prolonging the agony.

You were saying, based on the 7 day average, the rise was levelling out?

Presumably you've revised your interpretation and now understand that's not the case and with an R of 2.6 plus(in London), action is required, and soon
 
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bear66

Well-known member
You were saying, based on the 7 day average, the rise was levelling out?

Presumably you've revised your interpretation and now understand that's not the case and with an R of 2.6 plus, action is required, and soon
You can see daily hospital admissions by region here

The largest rise is in the Midlands, but after levelling out, both NW and NE have risen in the last few days.

Overall, hospitals now have over 50% of the peak April figures.
 

Artie Fufkin

Well-known member
You can see daily hospital admissions by region here

The largest rise is in the Midlands, but after levelling out, both NW and NE have risen in the last few days.

Overall, hospitals now have over 50% of the peak April figures.

Exactly, it's not levelling out at all. A 7 day average is missing the bigger picture. It's useful to use the 7 day thing if you're trying to minimise the severity of the reality
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Quite a few hospitals are reporting more cases now in their hospital than in April. My guess is that we are on course for more infections than in the first wave. People in hospital now probably caught the virus 4 weeks ago when most people were relaxed about the virus and 97% of the UK was in Tier 1.

We must be getting up to 15% of the population who have had the virus now. It still needs at least another 15% to get to herd immunity. (if it exists)

With Spanish flu it took around 16 months to get through the virus - we are currently only 8 months in. A vaccine could be available this time which could kill the Virus in early 2021.
 

Glover_elbow

Well-known member
Yes we went in lockdown too late the first time round for the sake of keeping business open longer this completely backfired in term of deaths and the economy compared to our European neighbours. Now again we seem to reluctant to lockdown for sake of short term economics when countries like Germany are choosing national lockdowns. It has to be done otherwise we will have tens of thousands more deaths.
 

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
i thinks it’s important to remember that students are being tested any more, and were averaging 20k+ most days still

cases are rising amongst the over 30’s as demonstrated in Manchester thread I started.
 
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