Meanwhile, in Sweden...

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Malaguena said:
Too large to cut and paste on here

.pdf version attached
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Actually a pretty fair piece that. And it actually made me laugh a couple of times. I do wish that he/they had acted sooner to secure the old people's homes more effectively ... but then, so does he. One thing he does do via the Swedish media is communicate very effectively. Possibly with excess ice in his belly ... but he tends to stay factual and evidence based.
 
What Anikka Linde thinks now having had 2 months in isolation as a 72 year old.
Link 1

A foreigner's view (from South Korea) of why Swedish people happy not to U-turn
Link 2
 
My foreigner's view of Sweden is that its people are more inclined to "do the right thing" than we are here. This can make them seem dull ... though not quite as the Norwegians seem when you are driving on their roads behind a car doing 30 mph on a major highway. A pretty substantial section of my social group are Swedes. In fact I have a busier social schedule when I'm in Sweden than I do at home ... and most of them are concerned, respectful of the rules and as ***ed off as we are that their care workers didn't have access to adequate PPE. But I don't see much, if any, dissent. And I certainly haven't seen a single post from Swedish friends on social media suggesting that they should have locked down. But then this is a country with Allemansrätten ... the right to roam pretty much anywhere, as ong as you aren't doing any harm.
 
borolad259 said:
My foreigner's view of Sweden is that its people are more inclined to "do the right thing" than we are here. This can make them seem dull ... though not quite as the Norwegians seem when you are driving on their roads behind a car doing 30 mph on a major highway. A pretty substantial section of my social group are Swedes. In fact I have a busier social schedule when I'm in Sweden than I do at home ... and most of them are concerned, respectful of the rules and as ***ed off as we are that their care workers didn't have access to adequate PPE. But I don't see much, if any, dissent. And I certainly haven't seen a single post from Swedish friends on social media suggesting that they should have locked down. But then this is a country with Allemansrätten ... the right to roam pretty much anywhere, as ong as you aren't doing any harm.
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I was really impressed with Allemansrätten when I read a book the Right to Roam. Apart from having a picnic by someone's front gate, you can do just about anything.
 
borolad259 said:
My foreigner's view of Sweden is that its people are more inclined to "do the right thing" than we are here
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Up until now, the same in Spain ... or at least my part of it. As I've said in the Spanish thread through, there's rumblings of discontent now, which is being encouraged by the right wing Vox party
 
Liamo said:
Without commenting on the validity of the overall message, it is actually talking about the "Annual pobability of dying ..."
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That's what the heading of the data table says. Although the right hand dataset clearly isn't.
 
RandySavage said:
Meanwhile, in America.

View attachment 3501
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An alternative view from Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge:

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05...aths-would-not-have-occurred-in-coming-year-/

For those who can't be bothered to read, he calculates that in the United Kingdom the age-adjusted risk of dying from Covid-19 basically doubles your risk of dying this year. He also believes that only between 5-15% of those who die from Covid-19 would have died from something else in the next 12 months anyway.
 
"He also believes that only between 5-15% of those who die from Covid-19 would have died from something else in the next 12 months anyway. "

Agreed. A lot of the so called underlying conditions were not going to be life threatening in the immediate future. Many of those with these condition could have expected a longer life if Covid had not come to the party.
 
RandySavage said:
Those crazy Swedes, after 9 weeks of lockdown we are level.
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Given that the UK has some of the worst coronavirus statistics in the entire world by almost any metric you choose, being level with us is nothing to crow about.

However, surely a better comparison is with their Scandinavian neighbours who are closer in terms of demographics.

IMG_20200530_091554.png
 
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RandySavage said:
Meanwhile, in America.

View attachment 3501
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Just looking at the bottom line.
Right Hand column: COVID-19 been going say 3 months, so if we extrapolate to a year = 1.36% (instead of 0.34%).
Left hand column: Exclude COVID-19, say 13.44% - 0.34% = 13.10% as the non-COVID base death rate.

1.36% as a % increase in risk of dying on top of the base 13.10% = 10% increase in chance of dying.
Not sure I'd be too pleased if you told me I had a 10% greater chance of dying this year.

Second bottom line also works out at an extra 10% chance of dying too.


** Apologies - I'm referring to the above chart showing increases in chance of dying, because of COVID-19. Sorry I thought I knew how to quote properly, but obviously don't.
 
otto62 said:
Just looking at the bottom line.
Right Hand column: COVID-19 been going say 3 months, so if we extrapolate to a year = 1.36% (instead of 0.34%).
Left hand column: Exclude COVID-19, say 13.44% - 0.34% = 13.10% as the non-COVID base death rate.

1.36% as a % increase in risk of dying on top of the base 13.10% = 10% increase in chance of dying.
Not sure I'd be too pleased if you told me I had a 10% greater chance of dying this year.

Second bottom line also works out at an extra 10% chance of dying too.


** Apologies - I'm referring to the above chart showing increases in chance of dying, because of COVID-19. Sorry I thought I knew how to quote properly, but obviously don't.
Click to expand...

Why are you extrapolating for a year when these are already annual %.?
 
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