Meanwhile, in Sweden...

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The people are speaking with their feet and choosing to choose living.
In a matter of weeks all of his deflection will be for nought because the train is leaving the station I just pray we can pick up enough steam to save the economy and the livelihoods of millions of adults. 👍🏻
 
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borolad259 said:
It is still the annual probability, just as calculated in May. It doesn't mean that it will triple.
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Looking at the Washington Post article it says :
To date, less than 100,000 people in the United States have died from COVID-19 or three-hundreds of 1 percent.
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That is 0.03%. But the table has 0.02% which is less than the 'to date' figure! It hasn't been annualised though.
 
It only makes sense if it's annnualised at that point in time (bearing in mind Jan and Feb with few deaths. Anyway, not worth getting too bogged down with numbers at this point. We don't know (Still) how far we are along the timeline. I suspect that we are further than is represented in the press ... but that doesn't diminish the continuing threat at all. Especially on a personal level.
 
borolad259 said:
It only makes sense if it's annnualised at that point in time (bearing in mind Jan and Feb with few deaths. Anyway, not worth getting too bogged down with numbers at this point. We don't know (Still) how far we are along the timeline. I suspect that we are further than is represented in the press ... but that doesn't diminish the continuing threat at all. Especially on a personal level.
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The article covers that by saying "if these figures are double over a year". It's clear that people see what's going on differently. Watching a tailing off graph gives some hope, but this is still a nasty disease bringing a lot of misery to those most affected.
 
bear66 said:
The article covers that by saying "if these figures are double over a year". It's clear that people see what's going on differently. Watching a tailing off graph gives some hope, but this is still a nasty disease bringing a lot of misery to those most affected.
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You're absolutely right, it's not annualised risk at all. It's simply the number of people who've died so far divided by the whole population of the US. The reason why it's got the overall risk at 0.02% is that the cut-off date is 16th May. At that point 81,423 people had died in the US, which is 0.0248% (he's rounded down, obviously).

To be clear, this is not the risk of dying from Covid-19. It is actually the risk that you've already died from it!

Also, it's presented as if it's a revelation from a new research study. In fact, it's simply an op-ed piece from Richard Rahn, a well known critic of lockdown, libertarian and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth, which describes its purpose as assisting countries to implement supply-side economics and "pro-growth" policies.
 
Actually, Rahn's deliberate (I suspect) misrepresentation of statistics is a prime example of the type of misuse that really annoys me. It's the reason why the phrase "lies, damn lies and statistics" exists (which also annoys me), when the fact of the matter is that statistics measure precisely what they are supposed to measure, it's people who attribute them false meaning.

As an analogy to Rahm's argument, it would be like reassuring the passengers on the Titantic, after it's struck the iceburg but before it sinks, that because no-one has died yet they have zero probability of drowning. Come to think of it, that's probably what they did tell them.
 
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borolad259 said:
This is why transmission will be slow in the North. My place in the centre. The neighbour is on the right. The one in the middle is empty. View attachment 3650
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Looks fantastic. I’ve spent a lot of time in Scandinavia over the years, mainly Norway, but there is just something clean and fresh and crisp and relaxing about there and Sweden. Wish I’d appreciated them more when I was there.
 
Looks amazing! We're actually looking to move out there in medium (I've spent a lot of time there with work over the last couple of years and love the place, particularly in comparison to the UK)

Actually looking to purchase a Summer Home in the near future - probably the first step before committing to the move. Any advice greatly appreciated (it's early days in the search!)
 
changingman said:
Looks amazing! We're actually looking to move out there in medium (I've spent a lot of time there with work over the last couple of years and love the place, particularly in comparison to the UK)

Actually looking to purchase a Summer Home in the near future - probably the first step before committing to the move. Any advice greatly appreciated (it's early days in the search!)
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There's a huge price difference between the north and the south. There are some amazing properties for peanuts in the Northern half. If you use facebook, join the group https://www.facebook.com/groups/swedishproperty/

Paul, the moderator on there, is a former UK journalist who moved out there several years ago when his Missus was pregnant with twins. He, along with others on there, gives out good advice. I'll answer any specific questions you have too. My place is currently our summer bolt hole, but we plan to spend much more time out there when our son leaves home.
 
Konrad_the_Barbarian said:
How far north are you borolad ? I've been up to Farlun and Borlange a few times. The train journey from Arlanda is wonderful.
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I am between Skelleftea and Arvidsjaur in the North. We're right on the border between Vasterbotten and Norrbotten.

Skelleftea is a great place to live, if you can hack the winters. It's also on the up. Europe's largest battery factory is being built there. There's also a highly decveloped creative and gaming industry there.
 
borolad259 said:
I am between Skelleftea and Arvidsjaur in the North. We're right on the border between Vasterbotten and Norrbotten.

Skelleftea is a great place to live, if you can hack the winters. It's also on the up. Europe's largest battery factory is being built there. There's also a highly decveloped creative and gaming industry there.
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Does your house have heating? I have a relative who has a house further south but only uses it in the summer.
 
Our house has everything you need to live there full time. Heating, electricity, water from a volcanic spring (it's on the resurgent dome of an ancient supervolcano). We bought it in 2005. It still needed some work then (about 10 grands worth). We (me and a mate's family) paid 20 grand. The locals thought it was too much money :p. It has 5 acres of pasture, a bit of forest, beach, 2 barns, bakehouse and boathouse. You can still buy bargains like that in the North. I saw one house going for £1,500 this week (on the cheap property fb group). Let's say it needed some work ... but still ridiculous.
 
borolad259 said:
Our house has everything you need to live there full time. Heating, electricity, water from a volcanic spring (it's on the resurgent dome of an ancient supervolcano). We bought it in 2005. It still needed some work then (about 10 grands worth). We (me and a mate's family) paid 20 grand. The locals thought it was too much money :p. It has 5 acres of pasture, a bit of forest, beach, 2 barns, bakehouse and boathouse. You can still buy bargains like that in the North. I saw one house going for £1,500 this week (on the cheap property fb group). Let's say it needed some work ... but still ridiculous.
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That does sound ridiculously low! Good you can live there all year as well. Oil heating?
 
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