You say it ain't working but let's see at the end of 2020 when the 'death' toll for the year comes in so far it's looking very similar to all the others years before it:-
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You missed off the date, and link on your post, but looking at that 77,300 number, it appears to be early November, from Statista.
You can get an update for the numbers here:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/
The figure on 13th November is 79,268
This could lead most to believe that would include the deaths up to the 13th of November, but nope.
The actual key thing here is although it includes
some deaths for up to the 13th, any days from about the end of October are incomplete, and not fully recorded, like how there's a delay on how they add covid deaths to dates up to 2-3 weeks ago. They take a few weeks to record, but do seem to record accurately, this is good for some things, but is also a "frog in a pan of water on the gas" scenario.
So, if you go back to say October 31st, which we can assume has reliable/ complete data then:
2020: 77,351 to date
2019: 71,212 to date (lowest in last 5)
2018: 74,960 to date (highest in last 5)
15-19 average: 73,955
Using 15-19 averages, to "finish off" 2020 from October 31st, the number is 94,553
Keep in mind too, up to mid March 2020 Sweden had a -1,500 head start on the yearly deaths compared to an average year, so it could have been heading for a low year (compared to 15-19 av), now it's up by 3.5k on the 15-19 average, so that's about a 5k difference, close to the 6k covid deaths that were registered up to 31 Oct.
Yeah, you could say 19 was low, so there was "some timber to burn" as I read somewhere, but equally 17 and 18 were high, so in 19 there shouldn't have been many vulnerable left. In reality the line should probably trend through around 90,500.
But, how will winter effect them? In April, 2020 was on average 96 per day excess (over the 15-19 average).
How many more are going onto that December average, or do these days of 6,000 and 7,000 cases mean nothing, Sweden's PM doesn't think so, and I would really hope he's quite in the know, and would really hope the public listen to what he's saying.
The source of the data is here:
https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/manniskorna-i-sverige/doda-i-sverige/
and here
https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...l-och-diagram/preliminar-statistik-over-doda/
This is the graph from "Nov 13th", but you can clearly see it's only useful for data up to end of October.
In A