Meanwhile, in Sweden...

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Sweden is a sensible choice to compare given the thread theme. I wondered if an equivalent or similar country would have been a better choice. E.g Denmark/ Norway who had a different lockdown strategy.

I wonder if anyone have a link to excess death data across multiple nations. It would be interesting to see excess deaths/ million of the population across Europe. I can find graphical data but not the direct numbers.

Financial times show some quite varied results of covid strategy.

I'm surprised by the Scotland comparison but the Swedes have insisted from the beginning that comparisons between countries can only be meaningful 1, in a year or so 2, when all the stats are being compiled fairly ... excess deaths is probably the fairest.
 
I'm surprised by the Scotland comparison but the Swedes have insisted from the beginning that comparisons between countries can only be meaningful 1, in a year or so 2, when all the stats are being compiled fairly ... excess deaths is probably the fairest.
Check out the numbers presented in the graph as they're not right, so you're right to be surprised. Iceland, Norway, Finland and Hungary have had less deaths this year than the 5 year average and Germany is close to net zero. That's a surprise in the middle of a pandemic.

It's usual to have a report in the next two months to estimate seasonal flu deaths, but ultimately there will be an annual report that will forensically look at all causes for excess deaths for the year.
 
Comparison of excess deaths in Sweden and Norway. As far as I'm aware, Norway is a much better point of comparison to Sweden in terms of demographics, lifestyle, status as an international travel hub, etc.

I keep hearing this argument that you can only make a comparison after either enough time has elapsed or we see the results of a "second wave." Let me point out that to get close to Sweden's rate of CoVid-19 deaths per capita (which is currently the 5th highest in the world) Norway would have to suffer over ten times more deaths over this longer time period, or during a potential second wave, than it has suffered so far.
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I think it will always be able to make a better comparison in 2 weeks time, 10 weeks, 6 months and years later as there are so many factors to consider. However, the further down the line in healthcare the better the treatment options. I would much rather have a virus in 6 months when we have better antiviral knowledge, and increased understanding of the immune response that occurs. Kicking the can down the road with death is awfully useful in my opinion.

I tried to summarise the FT excess death figures per million population.

UK 968
Sweden 515
Denmark 35
Norway 0
USA 369
France 385
Italy 789
Spain 1035
Germany 110

This was using the FT excess death figures above/ over the country population on worldometer.
 
Check out the numbers presented in the graph as they're not right, so you're right to be surprised. Iceland, Norway, Finland and Hungary have had less deaths this year than the 5 year average and Germany is close to net zero. That's a surprise in the middle of a pandemic.

It's usual to have a report in the next two months to estimate seasonal flu deaths, but ultimately there will be an annual report that will forensically look at all causes for excess deaths for the year.

Does that take into account that the world prior to covid was tracking below to 5 year average?
 
Slightly off topic. I get the impression that Covid19 is"fading' in Europe but is "increasing" in the Americas (for instance). How can that be? Or are the number of cases increasing but deaths decreasing? I'm rather confused!
 
Slightly off topic. I get the impression that Covid19 is"fading' in Europe but is "increasing" in the Americas (for instance). How can that be? Or are the number of cases increasing but deaths decreasing? I'm rather confused!
It's difficult to generalise as second spikes seem to be a mixture of relaxing social distancing in different ways. There were two weeks when the average age of people in ICUs in southern USA was about 35 years old. Most of these will statistically live, but, statistically, some will have short to medium term (and possibly longer term) health issues from their ravaged lungs, kidneys, heart and brains. This is a nasty disease and deaths are not the only measure of its consequences.

Interestingly Sweden now has more restrictive social distancing guideline than its neighbours who had more stringent lockdowns. So comparing policies at a point in time is difficult. Scotland versus England well be an interesting comparison as their policies have diverged. One country wants to live with it, the other wants to eradicate it, which may be difficult with an open border.
 
Exactly. So someone putting up a graph going back to January 20 to make an excess death point is pointless.

So... When excess deaths are above average they're a useful tool but when they're below average they're not?

Like your thinking there bear!
 
So... When excess deaths are above average they're a useful tool but when they're below average they're not?

Like your thinking there bear!
The time frame for analysis has some significance. That's good advice from someone who thinks.
 
Slightly off topic. I get the impression that Covid19 is"fading' in Europe but is "increasing" in the Americas (for instance). How can that be? Or are the number of cases increasing but deaths decreasing? I'm rather confused!
Fauci said that America is still in the first wave.
 
The fact the world was tracking below the 5 years means the consequences of covid could likely to be higher than the excess deaths reported against the 5 years average

Absolutely, and it's time, due to the lack of evidence of a major outbreak of any other illness, that the excess deaths were added to the Covid19 total.

Belgium did it from the start, they were honest about the situation.
 
Absolutely, and it's time, due to the lack of evidence of a major outbreak of any other illness, that the excess deaths were added to the Covid19 total.

Belgium did it from the start, they were honest about the situation.
Even those excess deaths caused by the lockdown but with no evidence of covid-19 as cause of death?
 
We've been running below the average and there's no other explanation so it's pretty obvious what the cause is. Don't you think?

There may well have been some deaths caused by lockdown but they will be few compared to the overall number.
 
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We've been running below the average and there's no other explanation so it's pretty obvious what the cause is. Don't you think?

There may well have been some deaths caused by lockdown but they will be few compared to the overall number.
"Some"
"Few"

🤒😔
 
The excess deaths generally track covid deaths in both increasing and decreasing. I'm sure someone more skilled than me could track the two alongside each other and possibly have. Countries with much less COVID death rates seem to document COVID and excess deaths much more closely. Excess deaths tracking lower fits with some of these numbers (the ones that appear more accurate)

Country ..... Excess Deaths ...... Reported Covid Deaths ..... Difference
UK .................... 65700 ..................... 43414 ....................................... 22286
Sweden .................... 5200 .................... 5280 ....................................... -80
Denmark .................... 200 .................... 604 ....................................... -404
Norway .................... 0 ....................... 249 ....................................... - 249
Belgium .................... 9000 .................... 9745 ....................................... - 745
Spain .................... 48400 .................... 28341 ....................................... 20059
France .................... 25100 .................... 29778 ....................................... -4678
Germany .................... 9200 .................... 8954 ....................................... 246

I'm not sure our excess deaths figures can be used to support lots of unrelated excess deaths. You can obviously make stats tell any story you want- but more harsh lockdowns than ours don't support lots of excess deaths outside of COVID.
 
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