Its not gone away 2

BoroMart said:
The fact is we are largely a bunch of selfish aris-holes, community is dead, social responsibility is something for others, wealth, BMW and personal freedom is the king for many. Years of self-centred libertarian and free market ideology and deriding of socialism have to led to this general mindset
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Yep my point exactly,
 
Smog in Wilts said:
With regards to wearing masks in shops etc. It is hard to understand why now, when arguably we should have been doing this since June. However I think we are being asked to do it now, to get us used to it, before a possible second peak in Autumn or Winter when we will be inside more.
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It's late but I think the scientific community can hold their hands up for this one. Not their fault per se but the evidence that wearing masks was a benefit took a long time to process. A lot of scientists thought it had no benefit.
 
RandySavage said:
And also spread over multiple days which the doomongerers forgot to mention.
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That 123 might have been spread over several days, yes but subsequent and previous days could say the same thing, which is why we look at 7 day rolling average. The rolling average is still in the 64 a day, that's aprox 2,000 lives lost a month and is more than France+Germany+Italy+Spain, you can't wish these facts away fella.
 
BoroMart said:
That 123 might have been spread over several days, yes but subsequent and previous days could say the same thing, which is why we look at 7 day rolling average. The rolling average is still in the 64 a day, that's aprox 2,000 lives lost a month and is more than France+Germany+Italy+Spain, you can't wish these facts away fella.
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Yet excess deaths are way below the 5 year average now. So maybe we should review how we calculate care home deaths in particular.. Given that people dying with positive tests is in low teens.
 
bear66 said:
16 confirmed cases in one pub in Crawley. Two bar staff included. Shows how one close environment can get it started again.
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Now imagine one pub where the staff luckily avoid, and thus track and trace of customers not invoked, that 16 will be 66 in 4 days, and 250+ in 8 days, and over a thousand infections in a week.....unless people wear a f$(%*n mask and practice social distancing
 
Alvez_48 said:
Yet excess deaths are way below the 5 year average now. So maybe we should review how we calculate care home deaths in particular.. Given that people dying with positive tests is in low teens.
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the total excess deaths for 2020 are way above normal. The last months figures are below, because a) a lot of people died months early this year, b) people with health problems are self isolating, and c) in general there are less people doing things that can lead to death such as driving.

Arguing that current excess deaths are below normal for the last 3 weeks is like arguing that a single days death rate is proof of something. You have to look at multiple data points and trends.
 
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RandySavage said:
Not enough though.
Fags still for sale, kids can still buy and eat as much McDonalds as they want. They've pretty much obliterated home economics in schools thus leaving generations of kids without the skills to cook for themselves therefore relying on microwave meals and takeouts full of salt. A+E full of drunk idiots every weekend and no control over that.
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Can't argue with you with regards to smoking and poor diet, particularly for the less well off. Long drinking sessions exacerbated by drug taking has obvious consequences.
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
Can't argue with you with regards to smoking and poor diet, particularly for the less well off. Long drinking sessions exacerbated by drug taking has obvious consequences.
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the argument from Randy seems to be we've given up on lots of life saving health policies.....so let's just give up on fighting Covid. Seems a legit strategy :rolleyes:.....do you work for number 10 Randy?
 
I’m all for keeping the sports stadiums shut, maintaining the social distancing measures in pubs and restaurants etc. These will “holistically” all contribute toward preventing a second wave, no doubt.

But I see people all over the place livid that their cousin cuddled their best mate, or whatever, as though that’s definitely just killed another few hundred people. I appreciate in theory that it could, but it’s almost certain that it won’t.

I forgot my face mask when I went out earlier. Just not in the habit of carrying it all the time. Yet no doubt everyone in the post office who saw me (I was in there about 45 seconds) has decided I’m basically a modern Yorkshire Ripper.
 
BoroMart said:
the total excess deaths for 2020 are way above normal. The last months figures are below, because a) a lot of people died months early this year, b) people with health problems are self isolating, and c) in general there are less people doing things that can lead to death such as driving
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A) possibly which suggests that we have completely over reacted. Given that saving 3 months of life (which is what you're suggesting with point A) has to be balanced against completely destroying economic activity and the lives you lose as a result of missed cancer screenings, people not attending a and e with heart attack symptoms due to fear etc etc..

B) Anecdotal but I agree the city centres are very quiet.

C) can't agree with you here there's as many cars on the road as this time last year and if anything people are doing more things like hiking and outside activities that can lead to accident and death.

👍🏻
 
BoroMart said:
the argument from Randy seems to be we've given up on lots of life saving health policies.....so let's just give up on fighting Covid. Seems a legit strategy :rolleyes:.....do you work for number 10 Randy?
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I wish I did.
Kids would be taught how to cook from scratch in schools.
Fast food places would be ran under the same licence rules as pubs and bars. No under 18's would be able to purchase.
The sale of tobacco products would be banned outright and stricter sentences for this caught selling and buying tobacco.
Kids would be taught how to look after their finances in schools.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Yet excess deaths are way below the 5 year average now. So maybe we should review how we calculate care home deaths in particular.. Given that people dying with positive tests is in low teens.
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Excess deaths has been the key measure adopted by government (and others I think) from pretty early on in the pandemic.
When excess deaths were massively higher than the 5 year average Johnson et al took a bit of a hammering.
They also said comparing our excess deaths to others, at this stage, was unfair as the virus would be around for sometime.
Given all that, it is fair to cut them some slack given we are now trending behind the 5yr average. They can make a good case for further relaxation of lockdown on the basis of that.
Not sure whatever happened to ‘R’ rate though. Presumably it is high ;)
 
1finny said:
Excess deaths has been the key measure adopted by government (and others I think) from pretty early on in the pandemic.
When excess deaths were massively higher than the 5 year average Johnson et al took a bit of a hammering.
They also said comparing our excess deaths to others, at this stage, was unfair as the virus would be around for sometime.
Given all that, it is fair to cut them some slack given we are now trending behind the 5yr average. They can make a good case for further relaxation of lockdown on the basis of that.
Not sure whatever happened to ‘R’ rate though. Presumably it is high ;)
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Unrelated kind of but 2017/2018 had 50,000 excess deaths caused by influenza.
 
BoroMart said:
That 123 might have been spread over several days, yes but subsequent and previous days could say the same thing, which is why we look at 7 day rolling average. The rolling average is still in the 64 a day, that's aprox 2,000 lives lost a month and is more than France+Germany+Italy+Spain, you can't wish these facts away fella.
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Not wishing away anything.

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/18590724.amp/?ref=twtrec&__twitter_impression=true

That story could explain some excess deaths.
 
For context......

Just reading that Vietnam is now back on high alert.......

After a 57 year old fella was found to have contracted the disease. (Yup - 1 person)
103 People known to have been in contact with him have all been traced, tested and found to be negative whilst 50 have been quarantined.

He is one of 417 confirmed cases so far in the country.
Thankfully, no deaths yet.
 
Alvez_48 said:
A) possibly which suggests that we have completely over reacted. Given that saving 3 months of life (which is what you're suggesting with point A) has to be balanced against completely destroying economic activity and the lives you lose as a result of missed cancer screenings, people not attending a and e with heart attack symptoms due to fear etc etc..

B) Anecdotal but I agree the city centres are very quiet.

C) can't agree with you here there's as many cars on the road as this time last year and if anything people are doing more things like hiking and outside activities that can lead to accident and death.

👍🏻
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C) I’m sure if tot’d up people driving time it is miles less. 10,000 extra people are working from in my organisation that weren’t before. That’s one organisation

The average road time per person will be significantly down, therefore the chances of accident decreases
 
GazC_MFC said:
C) I’m sure if tot’d up people driving time it is miles less. 10,000 extra people are working from in my organisation that weren’t before. That’s one organisation

The average road time per person will be significantly down, therefore the chances of accident decreases
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That depends were you are. Despite my name, I am living in North Devon. It is very busy with holiday makers, not sure how it compares to previous years, but there are long queues on Motorways and through the lanes.
 
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