It’s looking like a potential landslide victory for Joe Biden

BoroMart said:
It's a bit more complicated than that. He managed to energise the youth and black vote enough to suppress any racist response.

Hillary lost black voters, and the racist voters with anti-mexican and black rhetoric saw the chance for revenge and came out in numbers.
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It's funny you say it's more complicated to eventually work you're way round to just saying it's racism again. 🤣
 
Alvez_48 said:
It's funny you say it's more complicated to eventually work you're way round to just saying it's racism again. 🤣
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It's not JUST racism, but racism (and other forms of bigotry) WAS a key factor that Trump clearly mobilised during his 2016 campaign.

Remember his abuse of mexicans as rapists and murderers, his accusations of Obama as a kenyan not american, his abuse of muslim immigrants, african sh$thole countries, amongst others. It was used to tell the racists that it's OK to be racist as long as they backed him. Damn even his attacks on Obama were to get racist backing, well that and he feels intimidated by Obama. This isn't inflamatory or dubious, racism was a key cornerstone of the campaign, MAGA would have been more truthful as MAWA (white)
 
BoroMart said:
It's not JUST racism, but racism (and other forms of bigotry) WAS a key factor that Trump clearly mobilised during his 2016 campaign.

Remember his abuse of mexicans as rapists and murderers, his accusations of Obama as a kenyan not american, his abuse of muslim immigrants, african sh$thole countries, amongst others. It was used to tell the racists that it's OK to be racist as long as they backed him. Damn even his attacks on Obama were to get racist backing, well that and he feels intimidated by Obama. This isn't inflamatory or dubious, racism was a key cornerstone of the campaign, MAGA would have been more truthful as MAWA (white)
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I don't disagree trump is racist..

I disagree that it's THE reason, again the key swing was Obama to trump voters, even dem analysts agree with that.

The reason for their change in my opinion is that they were massively let down by Obama and felt so frustrated they voted trump.

I mean rather than going back to racism... What are your thoughts on those voters?
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
History, or at least the way its recorded, is always influenced by opinion - thats why historians spend so much time arguing about the facts.

But I defy anyone to argue that history will not reflect the Trump presidency as an all time low for American politics.
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Except the emoyment rate
 
Way_Out_West said:
Objectively.
adverb.
in a way that is not influenced by personal feelings or opinions.
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So what is the definition of 'bad'?
Is there no criteria involving value judgements?
What are we comparing?
How are we controlling for confirmation bias, framing bias, desirability bias, handedness bias, risk assessment bias, hindsight bias, in-group bias, embodied cognition, cognitive dissonance and heuristics?
 
ticker_tape said:
Theres obviously no problem with racism then, they keep saying that.
Obama got the black vote out, they didnt back Clinton and 4.4 million didnt turn out.
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I was listening to Steve Schmidt of the Lincoln Project talking about how there is always a backlash against any civil or equal rites progress. Trump is the backlash to Obama.
 
Alvez_48 said:
I don't disagree trump is racist..

I disagree that it's THE reason, again the key swing was Obama to trump voters, even dem analysts agree with that.

The reason for their change in my opinion is that they were massively let down by Obama and felt so frustrated they voted trump.

I mean rather than going back to racism... What are your thoughts on those voters?
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The key was actually a) the number of first time or infrequent voters that did turn out for Trump, the rust belt and swing states lured by the promise of white power, and b) the drop in voters in two key 'targeted' states who trusted Obama but couldn't trust Hillary because she was back to the same old Dem party, so they didn't vote.

Which states actually flipped?:

Florida - Obama won it 50.01% in 2012. 300,000+ MORE people voted in 2016 for Hillary, but she still lost. Why? Because the retirement state's white racist pensioners were invigorated. There wasn't a fall because Dems stopped believing in Obama, it was white old folk coming out of the wood work

Iowa - Obama 51.99% in 2012 big drop in numbers 180k voters lost here for Obama, but as someone who lived on the border I'm amazed he ever got in, even by a small margin. Dems vote fell away but there were not significant gains for Republican, only 65k or so. They didn't switch....they just couldn't vote for Hillary. We heard this over and over again and Trump played on it, stating that she was a danger to security (emails), was involved in child sex rings via a pizza shop, that the Clinton Foundation is a criminal Organisation etc. etc. ad nauseum.

Michigan - It Dems lost about 10% of their vote here, but Republicans barely gained anyone. This was a falling away of voters because of Clinton, not a switching of Blue to red voters. In fact the 30k that switched to the Indi Green party, if they had stuck with Clinton they would have stopped Trump.

Ohio - same pattern, Dems lost 400k voters, but Reps only gained 140k to give a slender win

Pennsylvania - Dems got near identical voting number in 2012 and 2016. Reps managed to gain 300k from out in the sticks that don't usually vote and took the state. There was no falling away of numbers.

In summary the Dems lost just 63k voters, the republicans gained 2million voters. This WASN'T people falling away in disgust at Obama, it was 2million disenfranchised voters stirred into action by Trump.
 
He took over when the county was on its knees and slowly turned things around, he will always get scant praise from a lot who opposed him in white majority who mourn the loss of the Jim Crowe laws which were still in place when I was young. The birthers gave him a hard time, you can see here they dont like him.
 
Pennsyvania and Ohio will flip blue, there is very little doubt about that.

It's now down to the Dems to take one of Florida, Michigan, Iowa back or maybe Georgia, North Carolina or Wisconsin which aren't heavily red. Lose one of those and he is done for
 
The economist current prediction is:

Penn - Biden 84% chance of win 16% Trump
Ohio - Trump 52%
Wisconsin - Biden 87% win
Florida - Biden 78% win
Michigan - Biden 89% win
Iowa - Trump 59% win
Georgia - 50-50%
NC - Biden 64% win

Even Texas is wobbling around 68% Trump win, if that were to fall then it would be an utter whitewash with Biden winning 400+ seats to Reps 110ish

Of course, people will say polls said Hillary would win, they were within margin of error correct, it was a couple of swing states that changed the overall result. The difference is Trump is defending those small margins after 4 years of mismanagement, and entering a recession.
 
How does the polling reflect the likelihood people will (be able to) have their vote counted?

Hillary won the popular vote but still lost. 16 million voters are estimated to be deprived of their votes, overwhelmingly Dem voters, many of whom will not be aware of it until they turn up to vote and find out they can't.
 
BoroMart said:
The key was actually a) the number of first time or infrequent voters that did turn out for Trump, the rust belt and swing states lured by the promise of white power, and b) the drop in voters in two key 'targeted' states who trusted Obama but couldn't trust Hillary because she was back to the same old Dem party, so they didn't vote.

Which states actually flipped?:

Florida - Obama won it 50.01% in 2012. 300,000+ MORE people voted in 2016 for Hillary, but she still lost. Why? Because the retirement state's white racist pensioners were invigorated. There wasn't a fall because Dems stopped believing in Obama, it was white old folk coming out of the wood work

Iowa - Obama 51.99% in 2012 big drop in numbers 180k voters lost here for Obama, but as someone who lived on the border I'm amazed he ever got in, even by a small margin. Dems vote fell away but there were not significant gains for Republican, only 65k or so. They didn't switch....they just couldn't vote for Hillary. We heard this over and over again and Trump played on it, stating that she was a danger to security (emails), was involved in child sex rings via a pizza shop, that the Clinton Foundation is a criminal Organisation etc. etc. ad nauseum.

Michigan - It Dems lost about 10% of their vote here, but Republicans barely gained anyone. This was a falling away of voters because of Clinton, not a switching of Blue to red voters. In fact the 30k that switched to the Indi Green party, if they had stuck with Clinton they would have stopped Trump.

Ohio - same pattern, Dems lost 400k voters, but Reps only gained 140k to give a slender win

Pennsylvania - Dems got near identical voting number in 2012 and 2016. Reps managed to gain 300k from out in the sticks that don't usually vote and took the state. There was no falling away of numbers.

In summary the Dems lost just 63k voters, the republicans gained 2million voters. This WASN'T people falling away in disgust at Obama, it was 2million disenfranchised voters stirred into action by Trump.
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I recently read an article that showed it was the votes taken away from Clinton by third party candidates that swung it in a few states. There are no attractive 3rd party candidates this time.
 
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