India Covid Situation - Big Improvement

bear66 said:
There is a Sky report that tries to untangle possibilities. It's not a technical paper but it's an interesting read.
Link
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More style over substance but points to a few obvious things outside of Ivermectin....

The life expectancy seems to be around 65... very few over 80s
Obesity almost unheard of
Other comorbities associated with covid likewise
Large amount of time spent outdoors suggesting no vitamin d deficiency

But...
Comparing with Kenya... same latitude, less than half the population and 5 times the deaths with similar demographics.... but a low river blindness area
 
smogontherhine said:
Interesting figures I found today when looking at African covid cases... a year ago they were predicting catastrophe across Africa....
I looked at countries that the WHO have been administering Ivermectin across large portions of the population for years to prevent river blindness...

Started with the Democratic Republic of Congo... 105 million people, 32545 cases and 789 deaths.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm not sure it's down to vaccinations, masks, social distancing etc.

I'm still looking.
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I think the below combination is a lot more likely:

They took quick action, as they couldn't take any chances
They have a lack of testing (this doesn't mean the disease is not there)
Not a lot of travel in/ out for tourism, family visits, airport hubs etc
Young population
Low population density
Poor healthcare reporting/ low budgets
They have/ had bigger problems
Loads of space
Not a lot of "indoor" transmission, not many work in offices, schools with air con, not many supermarkets, pubs etc
Good ventilation
No real "winter"

There was some massive concern as most of Africa is 3rd world, but it's fortunate that those locations are also the least favourable for covid transmission, and will also have some of the worst reporting/ testing in the world.

Obviously, the outliers to the above would be South Africa (the country) and some of the most northern parts of the country, which are a bit denser and have slightly cooler climates, but these areas have recorded more problems (as most would expect).
 
Andy_W said:
I think the below combination is a lot more likely:

They took quick action, as they couldn't take any chances
They have a lack of testing (this doesn't mean the disease is not there)
Not a lot of travel in/ out for tourism, family visits, airport hubs etc
Young population
Low population density
Poor healthcare reporting/ low budgets
They have/ had bigger problems
Loads of space
Not a lot of "indoor" transmission, not many work in offices, schools with air con, not many supermarkets, pubs etc
Good ventilation
No real "winter"

There was some massive concern as most of Africa is 3rd world, but it's fortunate that those locations are also the least favourable for covid transmission, and will also have some of the worst reporting/ testing in the world.

Obviously, the outliers to the above would be South Africa (the country) and some of the most northern parts of the country, which are a bit denser and have slightly cooler climates, but these areas have recorded more problems (as most would expect).
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Lots of potential reasons but the fact that we're having this open discussion on a football message board and there's virtually nothing out there in the media as far as I can tell is worrying.

You would think that scientists, the WHO and the media would be all over this... there's a pandemic and one area of the globe that should be suffering isn't... why ?
 
smogontherhine said:
Lots of potential reasons but the fact that we're having this open discussion on a football message board and there's virtually nothing out there in the media as far as I can tell is worrying.

You would think that scientists, the WHO and the media would be all over this... there's a pandemic and one area of the globe that should be suffering isn't... why ?
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Africa should be worrying people for other reasons long before Covid, and long after, but it won't. It's one of the few places where I would say "it's not a problem", largely because they have much bigger problems to solve first (eating, drinking, basic healthcare etc.)

One of the reasons for the lack of media is, like everything with Africa, for some people, it's out of sight out of mind. That's proven on this board, some on here only care about themselves, never mind the town, the country, Europe, the world etc, Africa is the least of their concerns. The far-right/ Tory media is going to be more concerned with what can sell papers, or line their pockets.

Some people care more about "their freedom being taken away" because they can't sit in a group larger than 6 :rolleyes:, they say "we're being suppressed" by being asked to wear a mask :rolleyes:, or they're crying about risk (which is minute) because they don't want to help the wider community by getting a vaccine (two doses) :rolleyes:.

I'll break that other list down into two parts, to make it simpler, as the reasons are sepearate

So, first of all Africa's problem has been largely been mitigated up to now, by these:
They took quick action, as they couldn't take any chances
Not a lot of travel in/ out for tourism, family visits, airport hubs etc
Young population, the old and sick have largely already died (life expectancy typically 55-65, compared to 81 here)
Not much hospital transmission, if you have no healthcare
Low population density
They have/ had bigger problems
Loads of space
Not a lot of "indoor" transmission, not many work in offices, schools with air-con, not many supermarkets, pubs etc
Good ventilation
No real "winter"

All of that above will help absolutely massively

Then, what they do have may be underreported because of these:
They will have a lack of testing (this doesn't mean the disease is not there)
There's not a lot that they can do if they did test positive
Eating and drinking has a greater importance than Covid
Poor healthcare reporting/ low budgets

The WHO and scientists may not be spending much time on Africa as there are other more visible problems, or may even be doing a lot, but it's just not making the news.

Have a look at the average life expectancy by country, nearly all of the worst of it is in Africa.
www.worldometers.info

Life Expectancy by Country and in the World (2024) - Worldometer

List of countries and dependencies in the world ranked by life expectancy at birth, both sexes, males and females. World Population Life Expectancy with historical chart
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
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We've been consistently told that climate doesn't make a difference, figures in all four corners of the globe prove that.

If there was a covid disaster in Africa you can bet your bottom dollar it would be all over the news. It's not the 1900's anymore, you can get internet/satellite access in any part of the the world now so the media would be all over it.
 
Randy said:
We've been consistently told that climate doesn't make a difference, figures in all four corners of the globe prove that.

If there was a covid disaster in Africa you can bet your bottom dollar it would be all over the news. It's not the 1900's anymore, you can get internet/satellite access in any part of the the world now so the media would be all over it.
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Of course it makes a difference, it is just the degree of difference, and how this is prioritised/ where it falls on the list of effects. It's not the no 1 effect, far from it, but it can move up the list in certain circumstances.

It's similar to flu (except miles worse) or any other airborne virus, and it is more transmissible when people are cooked up inside (which tends to be cooler months in the UK and Europe), with poor airflow.

The climate aspect can be overridden, by other things that affect R to a greater degree, but it never goes away.

Covid might make the news if Africa had a "disaster", but the media would still not be reporting 5% of people dying of AIDS, 5% Malaria, 5% TB etc, and in the areas that would be most susceptible to a disaster, something else has already got there first. We don't halve 1/100th of the issues Africa has, covid priorities for each would be very different.
 
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homersapien said:
The breakdown for each vaccine can be found here.

www.gov.uk

Coronavirus vaccine - summary of Yellow Card reporting

www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

The list for Astra Zeneca is over 100 pages long and includes reactions such as

Fever 59,909
Chills 40,438
Fatigue 43,461
Nausea 30,216
Vomiting 10,105
Malaise 10,890
Muscle pain 24,331
Joint pain 19,846
Pain 14,297
Pain in
extremities 18,331
Decreased appetite 5,901
Dizziness 19,039
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This list is from the yellow card reporting system which can have entries by the general public (Anti vaxxers boast about false reports to this). It’s worth noting that mist of the reports aren’t confirmed reactions, but events after receiving a vaccine.
 
smogontherhine said:
Interesting figures I found today when looking at African covid cases... a year ago they were predicting catastrophe across Africa....
I looked at countries that the WHO have been administering Ivermectin across large portions of the population for years to prevent river blindness...

Started with the Democratic Republic of Congo... 105 million people, 32545 cases and 789 deaths.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm not sure it's down to vaccinations, masks, social distancing etc.

I'm still looking.
Click to expand...
Do not trust African numbers.
 
Randy said:
Why not out of curiosity?
Click to expand...
The reasons for under-reporting in Africa is discussed in the link I put up above

South Africa is believed to have one of the better testing and death registration systems, but even they have now acknowledged the under reporting of the number of deaths (133,000 rather than the 55,000 reported Link )
 
bear66 said:
The reasons for under-reporting in Africa is discussed in the link I put up above

South Africa is believed to have one of the better testing and death registration systems, but even they have now acknowledged the under reporting of the number of deaths (133,000 rather than the 55,000 reported Link )
Click to expand...
Ah, yeah I don't read sky news links anymore. Sorry @bear66
 
Randy said:
Why not out of curiosity?
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I have seen it first hand 15 or so months ago. Even now with the testing being done on site, prevalence is much higher than reported. The company medical team are fed info from doctors on the front line rather than use the ‘official figures’.

The country I am in have been moved to the red list. Nothing has changed in the official numbers to suggest an increasing issue. The move seems to be based on testing of people coming into the uk (day 2 & 8 and TTR on day 5).
 
Randy said:
Ah, yeah I don't read sky news links anymore. Sorry @bear66
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It is an interesting read even if you don't like sky news. You can do your own leg work if you like though. The sources of reference are:

Global deaths and cases comes from Johns Hopkins University; world population data from the United Nations; the Stringency Index was developed by the University of Oxford and can be found here; England COVID-19 deaths by age groups are published by gov.uk coronavirus dashboard; excess of mortality calculated using data from the ONS, NISRA, NRScotland and South African Medical Research Council.

Modelling study that predicted infections rates in African countries of between 23% in Niger and 42% in Mauritius within the first 12 months can be found here.

Modelling study that said the impact of COVID in West Africa could be "catastrophic" can be found here.

Patrick Walker and Oliver Watson's study on COVID in countries with different incomes can be found here.

Study on the spread of COVID by African researchers in the early stages of their careers can be found here.

Mean temperatures in Africa/UK - Sky News analysis based on 2016 yearly averaging of mean monthly temperature as listed on the World Bank's Climate Knowledge Portal. The portal can be found here.

Another study linking weather to mortality in Africa can be found here.

The Washington/Liverpool/Kenya study can be found here.

Lawrence Mwananyanda's study on post mortem surveillance can be found here.

Maysoon Dahab's study, in collaboration with other Imperial College researchers, can be found here.

The Zambia seroprevalence study results are detailed here.

The Kenya seroprevalence study results are detailed here.

The Mozambique seroprevalance study results (in Portuguese) are detailed here.

The Malawi seroprevalance study results are here.
 
bear66 said:
The reasons for under-reporting in Africa is discussed in the link I put up above

South Africa is believed to have one of the better testing and death registration systems, but even they have now acknowledged the under reporting of the number of deaths (133,000 rather than the 55,000 reported Link )
Click to expand...
Very good article that, only just read it.

I don't often read or watch Sky News (no particular reason) but that article aligns pretty well with common virus knowledge, and basic reasoning and is quite similar to what I posted.

Good that it posted a massive list of sources too.
 
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants said:
I have seen it first hand 15 or so months ago. Even now with the testing being done on site, prevalence is much higher than reported. The company medical team are fed info from doctors on the front line rather than use the ‘official figures’.

The country I am in have been moved to the red list. Nothing has changed in the official numbers to suggest an increasing issue. The move seems to be based on testing of people coming into the uk (day 2 & 8 and TTR on day 5).
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The UK's red list is probably a fairly good guide of where either has it bad, is fudging numbers or just does not have the capacity to report correct numbers.

*if we need a trade deal with them, then red listing may be delayed (see ref India)
 
smogontherhine said:
Bit disturbing that Dr. Kory and his Covid Critical Care Alliance have been silenced by Twitter....
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CCCA is still posting on twitter, and I still see Kory vids on there, they've not been silenced but if they share info based on poor information which can possibly do more harm than good, then threads may get pulled.

I'm not against IVM, not until we've seen a large scale trial, that's been well run, but equally, it's a tough sell to argue for it when vaccines clearly work, will get better, and there's LOADS of them.

But, all of this has been covered above:
If people recommend a drug that is not approved it may get pulled (it's not approved by WHO and EMA, and they really don't want more people dying)
It's not had large scale trials, that have been well ran (without bias and with placebo), and showed much of a benefit, over the alternatives
Long term effects are not known, when at the doses required, when combined with covid
Most of the "trials" had been done on old variants, which are basically out of date, and in areas not exactly known for being "truthful"
Vaccines are proven to work, see Israel, Wales, England, anywhere (they were designed based on old, and they work on the new, and will get better)

New UK hospital admissions (based on Delta variant, which is the worst we have)
67% unvaccinated
23% one vaccination
2% two vaccinations, which was always the plan (bear in mind this 2% contains > 90% of the risk)
8% no vaccination data known

Why would vaxers (~90% uptake of adults in the UK) need to take ivermectin? They have a vaccine (there's about 20), and vaccines will get adapted to be better?

Or are you just pushing this for the anti-vaxers to take?

Or are you advising to take both?

Or are you saying take IVM instead of a vaccine?

Seems to me like there are some individuals profiteering on unknowns, and some people like to watch and read about it. Bret arguing against lockdowns or vaccines at the same time hurts any credibility he has, as these are not even up for debate.

Why doesn't Bret, Kory and whoever start a go fund me page for some money for an IVM trail, and then get it trialled large scale, by someone reputable in a country with a good record?

They're trying to re-invent the wheel, when we already have 20 types of wheel.

Was the same last year with HCQ (which we now know doesn't really work), except that got more blowback/ attention as there were no ready vaccines, now we have vaccines there's little interest in reinventing the wheel as we've got a good direction to go in. People won't argue against something if the data is bad, but equally, they shouldn't have to as the argument "for" it, is based on bad data too.
 
1. It looks like they've lifted the ban on twitter since my post... yesterday no posts after 23rd May were appearing, suddenly today the missing ones have all appeared. DarkHorse podcast suggests the same
2. A large scale trial is not going to happen, we've already discussed this, no-one is going to fund this, and no-one should be doing a double-blind trial with a placebo when the active drug has been proven to work, it's unethical
3. I simply do not trust the WHO's motives, you might. As the 5th largest donor to the WHO, GAVI Alliance clearly has only one motive, it's in its name
4. Anywhere you look in the world that has used ivermectin as part of a holistic covid program has had success
5. Not pushing this for antivaxxers at all, or even the UK - in the developing world there will be hundreds of millions of people that are months if not years away from a vaccine, I can't for the life of me understand why the WHO is against recommending ivermectin for them, it is a no-brainer and will save lives and be globally beneficial

The truth will out.

And a question... what do you think the motives are for Dr. Kory et al ? He's a 30 year veteran ICU doctor, he's interested in saving lives.
 
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