Hospitality Fights Back

If there is a bright side for the hospitality and live music sectors is that the premises will still be there in the spring when things start to settle down.

The existing businesses can re-open or be replaced by new businesses. It's a temporary situation. If a business disappears it will be replaced so long as there's demand, if there's no demand then it would have disappeared anyway.

Vaccines are on the way and it's time for the panic to subside. I'm missing the pub, missing the restaurants and the occasional trip to the Georgian or Westgarth but there's light at the end of the tunnel. No panic required.
 
Lifelonfaninexile said:
I can honestly see the closure of the majority of wet pubs.
Simply not economically viable to attempt to open.
Once gone the chances of reopening are slim.
Unless the shower of sh@t supposedly running this country accept that these are not places of transmission then our way of life will be irreparably change.
I hate to say it but a small pressure group within the tory party are the only ones saying "show us the evidence."
That is from outside the industry.
Have we all accepted that a few academics, who have probably never been to a pub since they left uni., can decide to change our way of life.
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Majority have yes.
God knows what would happen if this country was ever invaded by a foreign military force.
 
Artie Fufkin said:
I fear for my local which is a wet pub, although it does have a menu board, but it just lists "pickled eggs, nuts, crisps and there's a chippy over the road"

that said, I've driven past a couple of times in the last week or 2 and on both occasions, the owner is there doing some work inside and has bought some more outdoor heaters, so he must have some hope that his business will be able to continue in the long term, despite what may or may not happen after the 2nd. I very much doubt they'l be doing take-out booze, there's only 3 handpulls on and they are just local brewery stuff, so nothing I dont think people would go out of their way, unless it was done just to support the pub if it's open for take-out. That being the case I would cerainly support as best I can as it's an integral part of our commuity and, from an entirely selfish perspective, it's where me, my wife and a good number of pals prefer to spend our Friday evenings so I would be very sad to see it go
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Tell the landlord of your local to get in touch with a local food van. Come to an arrangement where his food can be served in the pub.
It's a way around the ridiculous rules mate
 
RandySavage said:
Tell the landlord of your local to get in touch with a local food van. Come to an arrangement where his food can be served in the pub.
It's a way around the ridiculous rules mate
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Oooh, that's a good shout, we already have a pizza van that comes to another pub close to us every weekend, bloody nice pizzas they are too - I'll ask him next time I see him, or message one of the bar staff on FB to ask if they're thinking of doing anything like that - although I cant see it working 7 days a week to be honest and dont know if they could sustain only being open for a limited number of days. Worth an ask though (y)
 
Artie Fufkin said:
Oooh, that's a good shout, we already have a pizza van that comes to another pub close to us every weekend, bloody nice pizzas they are too - I'll ask him next time I see him, or message one of the bar staff on FB to ask if they're thinking of doing anything like that - although I cant see it working 7 days a week to be honest and dont know if they could sustain only being open for a limited number of days. Worth an ask though (y)
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Doesn't need to do it all week. Make it a special on a Friday and Saturday night. If I ran a food wagon I'd be offering my services to loads of wet led pubs.
 
RandySavage said:
Doesn't need to do it all week. Make it a special on a Friday and Saturday night. If I ran a food wagon I'd be offering my services to loads of wet led pubs.
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Just not sure if only opening the pub only 2 nights a week makes it viable, I'd like to be wrong though
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
If there is a bright side for the hospitality and live music sectors is that the premises will still be there in the spring when things start to settle down.

The existing businesses can re-open or be replaced by new businesses. It's a temporary situation. If a business disappears it will be replaced so long as there's demand, if there's no demand then it would have disappeared anyway.

Vaccines are on the way and it's time for the panic to subside. I'm missing the pub, missing the restaurants and the occasional trip to the Georgian or Westgarth but there's light at the end of the tunnel. No panic required.
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I think that’s a good point CTC - most of the people who run these pubs and clubs can now see a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.
It makes the decision a bit more straightforward -
can I hang on for a 3 months or so v indefinitely.
 
Randy said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1357833182381563905


👀
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There it is again, 'main source of transmission is in the homes'. Mutters had a go at me and told me I didn't understand statistics for mentioning that before but he's actually very wrong.

When people think about this stuff they don't realise that by shutting so many places you actually create choke points everywhere that is open. One household member catches it outside the home and then the rest catch it when the individual brings it in.

All this super spreader stuff that's disappeared into the ether is not the main source of community transmission, never was.
 
Yup.

Just like the pre-2020 pandemic response (yes, for flu... but SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory virus) was not doing many of the things we are now doing. Border closures (apart from small island nations early in an epidemic - still comes with long term problems) not recommended, quarantine of healthy individuals not recommended, masks for asymptomatic individuals (no evidence)..... thrown in the bin in March 2020. The reason those measures were not recommended? The costs (economic, but mainly social) outweigh the benefits of enacting them.

The extent to which the mathematicians and modelers of SAGE think they can 'control' a respiratory virus has been a revelation over the last few months. Back in March the reaction was understandable but "lockdown" was a total disaster (I used to have the opposite few and was very pro-lockdown). We seem to have ignored all the evidence since and have ended up where we are.

We have mathematicians and epidemiologists who seemingly choose to ignore the role of the physical sciences. The likes of Calum Semple extolling how we suppressed the virus from spring last year. No Calum.... its called summer approaching. At least understand the work of Edgar Hope-Simpson (RIP) as a basis to work from. Calum seems to have tried to apply his work on Ebola to SARS-CoV-2 without consideration of physics, chemistry etc.

The latest genius work of SAGE (from Warwick, though LSHTM have some culpability too) is to suggest an endemic respiratory virus which millions and millions have already been infected (and will have immunity for a period of time - see Shane Crotty's work) and for which millions of the most vulnerable will soon have been vaccinated (and have some level of protection) will, if all restrictions are removed , peak in the middle of summer with 4000 deaths a day. Where to begin.........?

I'll leave you with a quote from Hope-Simpson's book.....

1612579412619.png

Wise words Edgar, wise words. But no, lets ignore such fundamental research and 'model' a natural phenomena with ridiculous inputs. Well done SAGE. We have truly gone back about 300 years.

Burn the witches.
 
Read some strange rumours this morning regarding the reopening of the pubs and restaurants.

Pubs may be open in April but not allowed to serve alcohol. 🤣 Definitely an idea straight out of the behavioural science handbook. The same handbook that said alcohol could only be served with a substantial meal and you had to be sat down and not allowed to stand up and drink.
Well the early shutting and the substantial meal rules are also not been reinstated.
 
I heard yesterday that brewers are being lined up for a May return, pubs the month after. One thing for sure, we've got a long way to go yet.

It's interesting that the only place being blamed for the spread is the home. Well how does it get there in the first place, when offices, factories, supermarkets and hospitality have all managed to have reports published that they aren't sources for spreading Covid, when we've locally seen evidence to the contrary?
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
I heard yesterday that brewers are being lined up for a May return, pubs the month after. One thing for sure, we've got a long way to go yet.

It's interesting that the only place being blamed for the spread is the home. Well how does it get there in the first place, when offices, factories, supermarkets and hospitality have all managed to have reports published that they aren't sources for spreading Covid, when we've locally seen evidence to the contrary?
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My kids primary school has 75% of the kids in. Yes, 75%.
 
Alvez_48 said:
June for pubs.... I give up. 🤦🏻‍♂️
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Will be earlier than that. Pubs simply won't survive until then (unless you are a wetherspoons).
There was a survey done at the start of January asking pubs and restaurants about cash reserves. 2 out of 3 said with the current financial help in place they'd still run completely out of cash by the end of March.
 
Without sounding daft, surely nearly everyone has a home, and people are much closer together and don't wear PPE at home. So it's always going to be one of the primary places of transmission?

I'd also assume everyone who goes to the pub, has left a home at some point that day, then goes to a home afterwards?

So it is closing down 'some' transmission and reducing the 'R' number.

But most likely, for the country as a whole, it's a pretty small amount. But added to everything else that is closed, it's sufficient to prevent the NHS being over run.

I don't understand the feeling from some that other people want things ruined or bankrupt. I think everyone wants this over and life to get back to some normality as soon as possible.
 
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