We go off hospitalisations and mortality. All the other data is skewed by thoroughness of testing. The people I know in hospitals are telling me that it was done with months ago. They have other fish to fry now.
Given that the majority of new cases are in the young and they don't get as sick (if they get sick at all) we also need to allow them to spread it.
New cases have been on the rise for weeks, they are only just accelerating as the R has jumped to nearly 2.
So, as state before, as a prolific poster I'm sure BL259 will be on here admitting he was wrong when new cases translate to hospital admissions and deaths over and above the usual rate through flu.