Do You Know Your Covid?

#41
We go off hospitalisations and mortality. All the other data is skewed by thoroughness of testing. The people I know in hospitals are telling me that it was done with months ago. They have other fish to fry now.
Considering it's established that it takes around 5 to 14 days to show symptoms, then once showing symptoms a further 7 days to get to the point of hospitalisation we need to allow 3 weeks for the new cases to equate to hospitalisations.

Given that the majority of new cases are in the young and they don't get as sick (if they get sick at all) we also need to allow them to spread it.

New cases have been on the rise for weeks, they are only just accelerating as the R has jumped to nearly 2.

So, as state before, as a prolific poster I'm sure BL259 will be on here admitting he was wrong when new cases translate to hospital admissions and deaths over and above the usual rate through flu.
 

zorro_mfc

Well-known member
#42
Many of us already had some level of immunity.
How can this be as it’s a new virus that no one had ever encountered before so how did we already have immunity to it.

There’s seems to be a lot of “cod science” dressed up as fact going in here which I personally find dangerous.
 
#44
My dad’s 79 and on wafferan to thin his blood , I think that’s helped him or will should he get it .
He was ill the other week but as an ex smoker what he was ill with could if just been linked to that
 

buffaloboro

Well-known member
#45
No. And it's more complex than that. Many of us already had some level of immunity. The end data tells you when immunity levels have cut the viability of the virus. In short, when very few people are dying from covid, it's time to be anxious about other stuff.
Borolad am I missing one of your points? You said that "many of us have some sort of immunity" . I thought that that would mean at least 65% impacted by covid. I've done a quick Google search and the NY times suggests:
To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.
_--------------------------
You're suggesting that it's the death rates that are the key variable & not covid. Per se? Is this correct? Then you're suggesting that once the death rate reduces covid becomes an issue akin to influenza? (Which , don't forget kills/could kill many).
 
#46
How can this be as it’s a new virus that no one had ever encountered before so how did we already have immunity to it.

There’s seems to be a lot of “cod science” dressed up as fact going in here which I personally find dangerous.
There have been similar virus's before though.

There is what is called "cross-reactivity" with other coronavirus's. This is well established in vivo now. Check out Dr John Campbell's video's on youtube. Very educational. He discusses these studies in detail but in a way the layman/non specialists can understand.

It does mean that there is a level of immunity already. Those who are only basing on the percentages of infected people on a positive antibody test really do have to acknowledge those figures are likely to be an underestimate. By how much we need to find out.
 

buffaloboro

Well-known member
#47
Well, clearly they don't all agree. Community immunity has already built to a significant degree (that much is obvious). And covid isn't over ... it's just heading towards insignificance.
259 - I wrote a massive post but it didn't save. From what I've read (again, not had time to watch that video as of yet) , there's a debate amongst experts if indeed we have immunity, even in places like new York and the smoke.
 

buffaloboro

Well-known member
#49
His explanation about why the US has had a relatively high death rate this summer is unconvincing. If I understand correctly, he claims that the explanation is normal seasonality: many regions in the US follow a “Northern Tropical” pattern for respiratory diseases, including influenza and COVID-19, where the deaths are more spread out and last through the summer.

But I looked at the CDC’s FluView Interactive, and that doesn’t seem to be the case. Normally. places like Florida and Texas have flu outbreaks at the same time as places like New York.

Also, I don’t think his theory explains why, for example, Iowa had an increase in deaths this summer. Granted, Iowa’s death rate hasn’t been huge, but it did see a bump and it’s definitely more Northern than Tropical!
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Much of this post is paraphrased but I agree with it & can't recall the source.
 
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#50
His explanation about why the US has had a relatively high death rate this summer is unconvincing. If I understand correctly, he claims that the explanation is normal seasonality: many regions in the US follow a “Northern Tropical” pattern for respiratory diseases, including influenza and COVID-19, where the deaths are more spread out and last through the summer.

But I looked at the CDC’s FluView Interactive, and that doesn’t seem to be the case. Normally. places like Florida and Texas have flu outbreaks at the same time as places like New York.

Also, I don’t think his theory explains why, for example, Iowa had an increase in deaths this summer. Granted, Iowa’s death rate hasn’t been huge, but it did see a bump and it’s definitely more Northern than Tropical!
There are a number of issues with the video. The Carl Heneghan pub twitter comments are something of the like Carl Heneghan would be jumping all over for "lack of evidence".
 

bear66

Well-known member
#51
There have been similar virus's before though.

There is what is called "cross-reactivity" with other coronavirus's. This is well established in vivo now. Check out Dr John Campbell's video's on youtube. Very educational. He discusses these studies in detail but in a way the layman/non specialists can understand.

It does mean that there is a level of immunity already. Those who are only basing on the percentages of infected people on a positive antibody test really do have to acknowledge those figures are likely to be an underestimate. By how much we need to find out.
This recent paper suggests there is no immunity from common coronaviruses to Covid-19.
Link
 

bear66

Well-known member
#53
Yet there has been evidence of cross reactive T Cell immunity. The Karolinska institue published studies a month ago.
I've looked at a few of the papers on T-cells and they seem to conclude that those with poorly developed immune systems appear to have been protected by a T-cell response (younger people). The problem then is how you develop that response into older people. The Oxford vaccine is supposedly good in that it attacks the virus in two ways, one of which induces a T-cell response. They also raised concerns that even younger people had their normal immune system 'tickled' such that who knows how they would fare in the future. Any ideas why 18-40 year olds were fine in the first Spanish Flu epidemic but were badly hit in the second wave?
 

1finny

Well-known member
#54
I just think Finny is a little bit dim or easily led.[/QUOTE]

KOT
I was going to leave that but thought nahhhh
Couple of reasons
Its not a nice thing to say about anyone really

And, when you think of it - you are basing it on nothing more than me sharing a video that I and others found interesting.

I know social medial allows you to hide behind a keyboard and throw out insults at will - I just don’t think it is right.

Enjoy your Sunday.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#55
Considering it's established that it takes around 5 to 14 days to show symptoms, then once showing symptoms a further 7 days to get to the point of hospitalisation we need to allow 3 weeks for the new cases to equate to hospitalisations.

Given that the majority of new cases are in the young and they don't get as sick (if they get sick at all) we also need to allow them to spread it.

New cases have been on the rise for weeks, they are only just accelerating as the R has jumped to nearly 2.

So, as state before, as a prolific poster I'm sure BL259 will be on here admitting he was wrong when new cases translate to hospital admissions and deaths over and above the usual rate through flu.
To be clear, I'll repeat that I am not saying that Covid 19 as a disease is done with, nor that there won't be any increase in deaths or hospital admissions. My worry would actually be from November onwards, when people's immune systems are weakened again through lack of vit D. It is behaving like a seasonal disease and will likely be around as such for good now ... even if a vaccine is found. As far as I know we have only ever vaccinated 1 virus off the face of the planet (smallpox). And, of course, if it gets ino care homes and infects people who are sick with other conditions, then people will die. The same happens with flu, except flu kills more young, healthy people.

What I am saying is that the enormous wave of infections that we had (most of us unknowingly) in the early part of this year is unlikely to be repeated.

We do have an issue, along with France, Spain and other countries that went for a prolonged lockdown, in that there is still a pool of people out there who aree still susceptible to infection. This was predicted by the Swedes (Giesecke and Tegnell) who said that the problem with lockdown is "How do you come out of it?". But that pool is obviously not going to be as big as it was when we were all going about our business normally in February and early March.

My Grandson has just started nursey school last week. He now has a persistent cough. He is too young to be tested. It may just be the normal thing when kids go to school for the first time.
Obviously, I won't be visiting him or that household.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#56
I just think Finny is a little bit dim or easily led.
KOT
I was going to leave that but thought nahhhh
Couple of reasons
Its not a nice thing to say about anyone really

And, when you think of it - you are basing it on nothing more than me sharing a video that I and others found interesting.

I know social medial allows you to hide behind a keyboard and throw out insults at will - I just don’t think it is right.

Enjoy your Sunday.[/QUOTE]

I did invite him to apologise, but he declined. So be it.
 

WeeGord

Well-known member
#57
KOT
I was going to leave that but thought nahhhh
Couple of reasons
Its not a nice thing to say about anyone really

And, when you think of it - you are basing it on nothing more than me sharing a video that I and others found interesting.

I know social medial allows you to hide behind a keyboard and throw out insults at will - I just don’t think it is right.

Enjoy your Sunday.
I did invite him to apologise, but he declined. So be it.[/QUOTE]

KOTT shouldn’t have said what he did, and should do the right thing and apologise.

What I would say though is that he is generally a very good poster and doesn’t usually insult people. Has been on both boards for a number of years and been a good contributor so hopefully he apologises and gets on with making very reasoned points of debate.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#59
I did invite him to apologise, but he declined. So be it.
KOTT shouldn’t have said what he did, and should do the right thing and apologise.

What I would say though is that he is generally a very good poster and doesn’t usually insult people. Has been on both boards for a number of years and been a good contributor so hopefully he apologises and gets on with making very reasoned points of debate.[/QUOTE]

I agree. He'll have a short sanction.
 
#60
This recent paper suggests there is no immunity from common coronaviruses to Covid-19.
Link
That paper only relates to antibodies. As borolad259 mentioned T-cells also have a role to play as demonstrated by the work carried out at the Karolinska institute and Shane Crotty's group at La Jolla.

Bear, if you haven't already, check out John Campbell's you tube videos. He has some very recent ones but particularly look at the one below which discusses pre-existing immunity.

 
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