Do You Know Your Covid?

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#22
He doesn't know his Covid and if you have half being following the pandemic you'd realise the most of what he's saying is rubbish.

The best bit is he is using excess deaths and there amount recently as a sign that the pandemic is over. Pretty bold when currently cases are on the up amongst the young when they won't be dying because of it...

His figures don't add up either.

It's right wing propaganda for the weak minded who can't make up their own minds.



Finny sums it up here why it's all a load of crap. He's heard and seen loads of other scientists' comments, they all disagree! But this tickles his fancy because it's different. I just think Finny is a little bit dim or easily led.
Firstly, spend some time with the epidemiologists who have been saying the same thing for months. Secondly, don't be personally insulting.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#23
Pretty bold statement that
Covid isn't over ... as I was saying back in March, we will be living with it for ever ... we'll just be better at it. The Epidemic is over in much of Europe. Sure, those countries that Locked down early and don't have community immunity will have their problems this winter but, for countries that have "had it" it's now just a normal bug. That's how it is.

If it all goes t*ts up this winter, by all means quote and shame me.
 
#24
Firstly, spend some time with the epidemiologists who have been saying the same thing for months. Secondly, don't be personally insulting.
Please look back on this thread in 4 weeks time as the hospital admissions and deaths rise and I'll be happy to insult some more... and you can tell your epidemiologists that you have been spending time with that they are talking poppycock.

And if it was all just a blip I'll gladly say sorry for any offence caused and buy these epidemiologists a Parmo as recompense.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#25
1. You can apologise to Finny now. 2. I hope you have a sophisticated enough understanding of respiratory illnesses to know that some increase in mortality approaching autumn and winter is normal.
 

Juninho10

Well-known member
#26
I was slightly too young to remember - but didn't this happen with SARS around 2002/2003?

People thought it was going to be massive and it just 'faded out' - i'm sure Canada had a huge outbreak at the time
 
#27
1. You can apologise to Finny now. 2. I hope you have a sophisticated enough understanding of respiratory illnesses to know that some increase in mortality approaching autumn and winter is normal.
I do. But an increase of Covid new cases isn't normal approaching Autumn and Winter. That's the issue with the video, it's based on deaths and not the increase in Covid cases over the last few weeks.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#28
I do. But an increase of Covid new cases isn't normal approaching Autumn and Winter. That's the issue with the video, it's based on deaths and not the increase in Covid cases over the last few weeks.
The increase in cases is easily explained by the increase it testing. It's obvious. Where I live, a month ago, you could not get a test, but now I can visit a drive through less than a mile away. This is fairly pointless though as the tests go through several cycles until they are picking up dead virus particles. It's poitless worrying about infections. Worry about impact ... ie. hospiatlisations and deaths. These are still below many other causes of mortality.

Here is comprehensive data from Sweden.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

You'll note a large rise in infections (top right graph) in June. This is because widespread testing on request was made available. You'll note that the curve of the ICU admissions and deaths graphs weren't impacted.
 

atypical_boro

Well-known member
#29
We can argue about this but unless any of us are virologists it’s basically just a group of dwarves arguing about who is the tallest.

Some want to believe we’re over the worst, some want to believe it was never a thing to begin with, some believe the worst is yet to come and some believe we’re still in the eye of the storm. A lot just depends on your outlook, even if you are a scientist with expert knowledge, and that’s why they can’t all agree.
 
#30
Assuming the Gompertz curves theory is correct, how high would the peak have been if we had not taken any measures to try and limit the number of infections? By how many thousands, tens of thousands or more would they be bigger? How much more of this 'dry tinder' would have been taken by an unrestricted infection situation?
Also, as horrible as any incidental deaths are as a consequence of the measures taken, we simply don't know how much worse or better they may have been if we'd not taken those measures.
It is possible the curve wouldn't be any higher if no action had been taken. If this theory is to be believed it could be claimed that the government clearing the elderly out of hospital and introducing the virus to the nursing homes has artificially increased the virus to a bigger at risk population.
 

Fluffycarpet

Well-known member
#31
"The epidemic is over"

Wow I feel better now. I thought pretty much all experts agree that the pandemic won't be over until it is totally wiped out or the world has built up sufficient immunity from a vaccine or infections.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#32
"The epidemic is over"

Wow I feel better now. I thought pretty much all experts agree that the pandemic won't be over until it is totally wiped out or the world has built up sufficient immunity from a vaccine or infections.
Well, clearly they don't all agree. Community immunity has already built to a significant degree (that much is obvious). And covid isn't over ... it's just heading towards insignificance.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#33
We can argue about this but unless any of us are virologists it’s basically just a group of dwarves arguing about who is the tallest.

Some want to believe we’re over the worst, some want to believe it was never a thing to begin with, some believe the worst is yet to come and some believe we’re still in the eye of the storm. A lot just depends on your outlook, even if you are a scientist with expert knowledge, and that’s why they can’t all agree.
ANd then there are the mortality figures. It doesn't get more final than that.
 

atypical_boro

Well-known member
#34
ANd then there are the mortality figures. It doesn't get more final than that.
The mortality figures are obviously significant (the most significant) but we’ve had a spike in them this week haven’t we? But month to month they’ve clearly been coming down hugely. So what do we go off?
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#35
We go off hospitalisations and mortality. All the other data is skewed by thoroughness of testing. The people I know in hospitals are telling me that it was done with months ago. They have other fish to fry now.
 

buffaloboro

Well-known member
#37
Some varying opinions here and that’s good. One question from me is why the guy in this video (and yes you need to watch it) isn’t fast tracked onto bbc itv sky etc. to debate with others. We have had no alternative to the Government narrative. The truth does not fear investigation.
Well,
Well, clearly they don't all agree. Community immunity has already built to a significant degree (that much is obvious). And covid isn't over ... it's just heading towards insignificance.
I don't know the exact figure but don't we need 65% + for community immunity?
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#38
Well,

I don't know the exact figure but don't we need 65% + for community immunity?
No. And it's more complex than that. Many of us already had some level of immunity. The end data tells you when immunity levels have cut the viability of the virus. In short, when very few people are dying from covid, it's time to be anxious about other stuff.
 
#40
The increase in cases is easily explained by the increase it testing. It's obvious. Where I live, a month ago, you could not get a test, but now I can visit a drive through less than a mile away. This is fairly pointless though as the tests go through several cycles until they are picking up dead virus particles. It's poitless worrying about infections. Worry about impact ... ie. hospiatlisations and deaths. These are still below many other causes of mortality.

Here is comprehensive data from Sweden.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

You'll note a large rise in infections (top right graph) in June. This is because widespread testing on request was made available. You'll note that the curve of the ICU admissions and deaths graphs weren't impacted.
Give over, we have not increased per person testing sufficiently to suddenly see a spike over the last 10 days. Quit the Kool Aid 259.
 
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