newusername
Well-known member
Neil Ferguson is all over the media this morning saying that Covid-19 is showing signs of slowing & so social distancing is working.
The number of new positives is slowing, on the:
24th 1,427 positive tests
25th 1,452
26th 2,129
27th 2,885,
28th 2,546
29th 2,433
However the number of tests has reduced as well:
6,491
6,583
7,847
8,911
6,999
6,961
So the proportion of +/ves found by tests has actually increased:
22%
22%
27%
32%
36%
35%
TBF he says he's basing it on hospital admissions, data that I can't find being released by the Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England but I think it is a bit early to say it has peaked.
BTW at 25k tests a day, the govts aim, it would take about 3.5 years to test half the UK population.
At a 36% +/ve to -/ve rate of infection for the test it would be 10 years to show that half the population has had it and so we have 'herd immunity'.
The antibody test can't come quick enough.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...read-shows-early-signs-of-slowing-key-adviser
The number of new positives is slowing, on the:
24th 1,427 positive tests
25th 1,452
26th 2,129
27th 2,885,
28th 2,546
29th 2,433
However the number of tests has reduced as well:
6,491
6,583
7,847
8,911
6,999
6,961
So the proportion of +/ves found by tests has actually increased:
22%
22%
27%
32%
36%
35%
TBF he says he's basing it on hospital admissions, data that I can't find being released by the Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England but I think it is a bit early to say it has peaked.
BTW at 25k tests a day, the govts aim, it would take about 3.5 years to test half the UK population.
At a 36% +/ve to -/ve rate of infection for the test it would be 10 years to show that half the population has had it and so we have 'herd immunity'.
The antibody test can't come quick enough.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...read-shows-early-signs-of-slowing-key-adviser