Coronavirus UK spread shows early signs of slowing

Are you able to get out for a (socially distanced) walk? It's my highlight of the day!
I've got two kids at home both under the age of 5, luckily I've got a fairly good sized back yard so been out in that. The missus works in a care home so she's been out to work past few days.

Really don't trust people in our village to follow the rules. One of my trips to the shop I walked home in the road as people up here are stupid.
 
That figure of doctors would fit in with the average were seeing at work (about 28 - 30% absence rates) and shows why testing NHS staff is imperative. They are not superhuman and if they have the symptoms of course they will self isolate.
 
Anyone seen today's figures?
Normally released about 1pm but they are still showing yesterdays figures.
Last time they did this they said they needed more time to collate deaths from various sources, it was accompanied by a large increase as well.
 
Anyone seen today's figures?
Normally released about 1pm but they are still showing yesterdays figures.
Last time they did this they said they needed more time to collate deaths from various sources, it was accompanied by a large increase as well.

Ignore, literally just clicked refresh & the new figures are out.
 
The number of new positives is slowing, on the:
24th 1,427 positive tests
25th 1,452
26th 2,129
27th 2,885,
28th 2,546
29th 2,433

However the number of tests has reduced as well:
6,491
6,583
7,847
8,911
6,999
6,961

So the proportion of +/ves found by tests has actually increased:
22%
22%
27%
32%
36%
35%

Slight uptick in number of tests to 7209, sees a slight up tick in number of positives to 2619.
The increase in deaths is down to 180 same as last Thursday. Poor buggers.
 
Have you got longer period data? There was one day out was at 40 but that was to take us to a 5pm reference.
I have kept the reports for the last 5 days, updated at about 11pm each, so yes I have some historical data Bear. I hope you are right and we will know more in another 3 or 4 days as to whether it is a trend or a local min.
 
Here is where it is from. Plus the latest stats from today...

https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/
View attachment 1363

To put the graph in context. It is a comparison of the 4 day moving averages calculated on each of the days. In the form of a ratio (or "multiplication factor"). So the 4 day figure for today is 1.52 x the one for the previous day. Which was 1.66 x the one for the day before then. Etc. If you can get it down to 1 then it is not growing at all any more (touch wood).

Some parts of Spain went in to lock down around 13/15 March. The whole country went into lock down on 16 March. So you can see that it is having a good effect. Even though the figures are growing significantly daily.
Thanks Spanishman, that does show a downward pressure on the growth rate. It may be another few days before you get below 1, but it is encouraging, albeit a lot of people are still dying.
 
That was reported on Sky just now for NHS England.

There were higher figures for nurses in London last week (33% average and 50% in one London Trust).
This is a real concern Bear. It is one of the factors in Italy for the increased death rate. Let's hope that the arrival of the PPE limits contagion to the NHS staff
 
I have kept the reports for the last 5 days, updated at about 11pm each, so yes I have some historical data Bear. I hope you are right and we will know more in another 3 or 4 days as to whether it is a trend or a local min.
I understand your point in terms of number averages (70 to 200) but a more important measure is rate of increase. Hopefully we do see the 15% rate of infections falling, but more important deaths.
 
Thanks Spanishman, that does show a downward pressure on the growth rate. It may be another few days before you get below 1, but it is encouraging, albeit a lot of people are still dying.
Just needs to get to 1 and stick to it. As it is the ratio comparing two 4 day averages from one day to the next. It should not be possible to go below 1 (although I am sure that Trump and Johnson will probably claim they have done it at some point in the future - by manipulating the figures in some way).
 
Those returning to the UK should be housed in temporary accommodation at the airport for 14 days.

The government are behaving appallingly.
 
Here are the figures for Italy. Looks like they are now at 1.26. Having started March at a ratio of nearly 4.

https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...-situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multipicacion/

Again positive news about the effect of a strong lock down.

Hopefully the UK will get there eventually.

This is still a horrible number of deaths everywhere. However you look at it. One is one too many for me. The same for unnecessary deaths as well.
Thanks again Spanishman, again some good news, relatively speaking of course.

Stay safe.
 
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