Coronavirus UK spread shows early signs of slowing

bear66 said:
Deaths up by 180 - approximately 15% increase. That is a significantly slowing rate.
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I genuinely believe the social distancing measures they brought in they did so at the right time. I also believe that the government will have accounted for the amount of idiots who did not listen to them and continue not to listen to them with regards to the lockdown hence the extra capacity of everything been ramped up.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves though there will be days where there are more deaths, but I really do not expect to see us with the same daily rates as Italy and Spain.
 
Same here, work went really quiet to the point we were telling staff to stay at home rather than bother coming to work, this was 9 days of it before Boris shut all the pubs. I'm basically on day 19 of quarantine, left the house twice both times to go to the shop for food for our house and the other time for my parents.
 
Ziggy said:
That's great to see.
But when will this stop.

Heathrow arrivals today.
Rome. 11
Paris. 12
Madrid. 13
Hong Kong. 5
Singapore. 23
New York. 10
Los Angeles. 7

No testing. Public transport in London is open and running.

See the problem?
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Surely we can't be repatriating THAT many people back here? These must be business flights as well?
 
RandySavage said:
Same here, work went really quiet to the point we were telling staff to stay at home rather than bother coming to work, this was 9 days of it before Boris shut all the pubs. I'm basically on day 19 of quarantine, left the house twice both times to go to the shop for food for our house and the other time for my parents.
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Are you able to get out for a (socially distanced) walk? It's my highlight of the day!
 
bear66 said:
Deaths up by 180 - approximately 15% increase. That is a significantly slowing rate.
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There is an article somewhere where it says you should a 4 day moving average to get a more consistent view of trends. As single day figures bounce around a bit. It was about the figures for Spain. I will see if I can find it again and post a link here.
 
bear66 said:
Are you able to get out for a (socially distanced) walk? It's my highlight of the day!
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Sorry, I do not understand what you are talking about. Not allowed them over here as our lock down is stronger (strengthened again from today as well).
 
spanishman said:
There is an article somewhere where it says you should a 4 day moving average to get a more consistent view of trends. As single day figures bounce around a bit. It was about the figures for Spain. I will see if I can find it again and post a link here.
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There was one day at 260 but it's been steady for four days and two days with falling numbers.
spanishman said:
Sorry, I do not understand what you are talking about. Not allowed them over here as our lock down is stronger (strengthened again from today as well).
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That was to RandySavage
 
The other figure we've heard today is that there are about 9000 hospitalised in NHS England. That's slightly more than half. So a lot of positive testings must be being sent home.

The bad news is that a quarter of doctors are positive or self isolating.
 
bear66 said:
There was one day at 260 but it's been steady for four days and two days with falling numbers.

That was to RandySavage
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Bear mate, I am not sure I agree with you. I believe todays figures show a decrease, but I am not seeing those numbers yet. Ignoring todays released figures we have for the last 4 days 115 - 181 - 260 - 209. If you use a 4 day moving average, 5 days ago we were reporting mid 50's on a daily basis. Even if today is 180 it wouldn't be statistically significant on a 4 day moving average. I would love you to be right, and you may well be, but that is not borne out by the maths.

I do pretty much ignore the infection rate because I have no idea how testing is being conducted at the minute and how many tests are done daily.
 
bear66 said:
The other figure we've heard today is that there are about 9000 hospitalised in NHS England. That's slightly more than half. So a lot of positive testings must be being sent home.

The bad news is that a quarter of doctors are positive or self isolating.
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Is that right bear, about doctors self isolating or being positive? Really a quarter?
 
Here is where it is from. Plus the latest stats from today...

https://smreputationmetrics.wordpre...situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/
SpainMovingAverageRatio30March2020.jpg

To put the graph in context. It is a comparison of the 4 day moving averages calculated on each of the days. In the form of a ratio (or "multiplication factor"). So the 4 day figure for today is 1.52 x the one for the previous day. Which was 1.66 x the one for the day before then. Etc. If you can get it down to 1 then it is not growing at all any more (touch wood).

Some parts of Spain went in to lock down around 13/15 March. The whole country went into lock down on 16 March. So you can see that it is having a good effect. Even though the figures are growing significantly daily.
 
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