Coronavirus UK spread shows early signs of slowing

N

newusername

Well-known member
Neil Ferguson is all over the media this morning saying that Covid-19 is showing signs of slowing & so social distancing is working.

The number of new positives is slowing, on the:
24th 1,427 positive tests
25th 1,452
26th 2,129
27th 2,885,
28th 2,546
29th 2,433

However the number of tests has reduced as well:
6,491
6,583
7,847
8,911
6,999
6,961

So the proportion of +/ves found by tests has actually increased:
22%
22%
27%
32%
36%
35%

TBF he says he's basing it on hospital admissions, data that I can't find being released by the Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England but I think it is a bit early to say it has peaked.

BTW at 25k tests a day, the govts aim, it would take about 3.5 years to test half the UK population.
At a 36% +/ve to -/ve rate of infection for the test it would be 10 years to show that half the population has had it and so we have 'herd immunity'.

The antibody test can't come quick enough.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...read-shows-early-signs-of-slowing-key-adviser
 
newusername said:
Neil Ferguson is all over the media this morning saying that Covid-19 is showing signs of slowing & so social distancing is working.

The number of new positives is slowing, on the:
24th 1,427 positive tests
25th 1,452
26th 2,129
27th 2,885,
28th 2,546
29th 2,433

However the number of tests has reduced as well:
6,491
6,583
7,847
8,911
6,999
6,961

So the proportion of +/ves found by tests has actually increased:
22%
22%
27%
32%
36%
35%

TBF he says he's basing it on hospital admissions, data that I can't find being released by the Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England but I think it is a bit early to say it has peaked.

BTW at 25k tests a day, the govts aim, it would take about 3.5 years to test half the UK population.
At a 36% +/ve to -/ve rate of infection for the test it would be 10 years to show that half the population has had it and so we have 'herd immunity'.

The antibody test can't come quick enough.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...read-shows-early-signs-of-slowing-key-adviser
Click to expand...

I think it's based on % increase of positive diagnoses, which is falling. Germany down to 8% increase in diagnoses and 15% for deaths. Lots of countries moving in the right direction at the moment (except USA).

Perhaps fewer people are turning up with minor symptoms. If I had minor symptoms, I'd stay at home as advised. This would reduce NHS load AND reduce the chance of a hospital infection!
 
I wouldn't get your hopes up - you're about 10 days behind us here in Spain, and we've had these stories every couple of days since lockdown started ...... all of which have proved to be false alarms so far. A couple of days of falling figures (be that deaths, cases recorded, or whatever measure suits the narrative) followed by a rise again.

Currently saying again that we "might" be approaching the peak.
 
I think we have to look at Italy for the turning point. I think Italy has peaked for its first wave. The deaths can take up to 3 weeks so we may still say some increases in people dying but cases certainly seem to be reducing there
 
pierrequiroule said:
It's an unnecessary thing for him to be saying at this point in time even if the figures may be hinting at it a) for the reasons that Malaguena says and b) because it gives a false impression that this will soon be over which is all that some idiots will need to think they can start breaking the lockdown.
Click to expand...

Or the alternative is that people see its working a bit and remain more motivated to continue to comply. I know that I would find it encouraging.

Having been told only yesterday that this could be going on for six months, I doubt anyone is going to be thinking 'job done' yet.

(Equally, I don't think people will sit tight for six months either, without pockets of 'unrest' developing).
 
bear66 said:
I think it's based on % increase of positive diagnoses, which is falling. Germany down to 8% increase in diagnoses and 15% for deaths. Lots of countries moving in the right direction at the moment (except USA).

Perhaps fewer people are turning up with minor symptoms. If I had minor symptoms, I'd stay at home as advised. This would reduce NHS load AND reduce the chance of a hospital infection!
Click to expand...
Which is what the government told people to do from the start.
But you know as well as I do in normal times people flood a+e with a scratch so those same people will do the same with a mild temperature and a little cough.
 
Erimus74 said:
Any little bit of positivity goes a long, long way, didnt need the 'dont get your hopes up' comment TBH, the pages asre full of doom & gloom its refreshing to see something we can hopefully cling to (y)
Click to expand...

Very true, but better to wait until you're absolutely sure (see Malaguena's post, and the same has happened here in France) as there's nothing worse than false hope.
 
pierrequiroule said:
Very true, but better to wait until you're absolutely sure (see Malaguena's post, and the same has happened here in France) as there's nothing worse than false hope.
Click to expand...
I see where your coming from but when you turn on the news & read papers it's depressing times, my daughter who is a nurse & is concerned about me said, though it should be me about my daughter, dad, think positive, We all need to stay positive, hydrated, clean and eat well so we have good immune systems 💗

When I see any little bits of good news, I know it's not the end of this awful time but for that moment it means so much to see
 
Last edited:
Erimus74 said:
Any little bit of positivity goes a long, long way, didnt need the 'dont get your hopes up' comment TBH, the pages are full of doom & gloom its refreshing to see something we can hopefully cling to (y)
Click to expand...

I think that comment is a little harsh to be honest. It wasn’t posted by a doom and gloom merchant, but by someone at the epicentre of the pandemic who is sharing his own, relevant experience with us.
 
Ah Mr Ferguson, weren't his numbers wrong earlier on or he had re-calculated and forced the govt to change tack?
Also criticised for his modeling during the BSE crisis. Experts eh....they never all agree unfortunately.
 
Billy Horner said:
I think that comment is a little harsh to be honest. It wasn’t posted by a doom and gloom merchant, but by someone at the epicentre of the pandemic who is sharing his own, relevant experience with us.
Click to expand...
I don't think that at all, I respect his opinions, both him & spanishman have constantly updated us throughout this virus epidemic, which we all appreciate, I just don't think it was needed to be honest, each to their own though, you think what you want
 
pierrequiroule said:
It's an unnecessary thing for him to be saying at this point in time even if the figures may be hinting at it a) for the reasons that Malaguena says and b) because it gives a false impression that this will soon be over which is all that some idiots will need to think they can start breaking the lockdown.
Click to expand...

He’s been asked to give a scientist view of the data. He’s done a good job of analysing the figures, but not the story behind them
 
Ziggy said:
That's great to see.
But when will this stop.

Heathrow arrivals today.
Rome. 11
Paris. 12
Madrid. 13
Hong Kong. 5
Singapore. 23
New York. 10
Los Angeles. 7

No testing. Public transport in London is open and running.

See the problem?
Click to expand...

I think these are repatriation flights aren't they ? (though I'm surprised its that many) - I can guarantee there are no commercial flights from Madrid.

The issue isn't the flights, it's the lack of testing
 
Richyboro said:
Ah Mr Ferguson, weren't his numbers wrong earlier on or he had re-calculated and forced the govt to change tack?
Also criticised for his modeling during the BSE crisis. Experts eh....they never all agree unfortunately.
Click to expand...

he predicted 500k deaths going the heard immunity route, then revised to 20k deaths with social distancing, then 5600 with isolation but I think this has now been revised to around 30000 due to the latest uk spike away from the normal curve. I think the metro are running the story.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top