Benidorm Curfew/Spanish Lockdown.

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation.

Data from Tuesday, April 14:

Today we had the first part of the integration of correction data for the holiday effect, for communities as important as that of Madrid, and the dreaded rebound effect has not occurred notably. Tomorrow the data of Catalonia will be integrated among others.

The systematic and regular fall of declared infections continues. They are 3,045 in the last 24 hours, 3,477 yesterday, 4,167 the day before yesterday. This fall almost certainly predicts that we will continue to see a reduction in the number of daily deaths in the coming days. There are 172,541 reported cases. The multiplication rate continues to decrease, now by 1.10.

Slight rise in the number of deceased: 567, by 517 yesterday. The day before yesterday there were 619. 18,056 deaths in total. Multiplication rate at 1.14.

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Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy


Last day today of absorption of possible registration delays due to the accumulation of public holidays. Data therefore to assess trends, comparing current situation with that of five days ago.

On the one hand, stabilization downward in the number of daily deaths, 523 today. There are three days in a row below 600. 18,579 deaths in total. The incidence of holidays in the registry of deceased was already expected to be low. The new stage now is to see if the death toll is soon below 500 or if, as in Italy, the period is lengthened with stable daily figures between 500 and 600. The sustained dynamics of falling daily positives since two weeks would rather point to the decline of the deceased in the coming days.

Strong rebound in the number of cases declared, 5,092 today by 3,045 yesterday. We return to figures from a week ago. 177,633 from the start. Two explanatory factors: the impact of the already famous weekend-holiday effect and that in autonomous communities they have already led to a notable increase in the number of daily tests carried out. I have received several comments in this regard (in the absence of having a statistic and official count of an indicator as important as that of daily and total tests ... which we do not have). He later commented on this issue. I think that the second factor (increase in daily tests) is relevant to explain today's figure, so the good downward trend of controlling the epidemic is probably not altered.

Today the multiplication rate remains stable in both indicators.

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Mind Golf

In my head I have just played the front 9 holes of our local golf course. I hit every fairway. I hit every green in regulation. I then 2 putted every green (not very at all - in a normal round I aim for 30 or below putts).

I went round the course in about 45-50 minutes. While walking up and down the "private" steps from the terrace down to the communal garden (that we cannot use). I walked up and down the steps 84 times.

I plan to see how far I can get round the back 9 holes later today.

It is really sad as I could see the golf course all the time as I was walking up and down the steps.
 
I don't know if you've seen the data scientist's take on the epidemic (I posted a separate thread). It makes fascinating reading. It's the kind of modelling that the Swedes have been using. Their policy is apolitical and defined by an epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell. The only thing they have got wrong is that they didn't manage to keep it out of care homes. Basically the novel coronavirus is spreading in much the same way as the familiar coronaviruses do, with a similar number of asymptomatic carriers. Spain, Italy, the UK and Sweden all have different policies regarding "lockdown" but all appear to be following the same data curve. Hopefully, things will progress according to the predicted curve.
 
borolad259 said:
I don't know if you've seen the data scientist's take on the epidemic (I posted a separate thread). It makes fascinating reading. It's the kind of modelling that the Swedes have been using. Their policy is apolitical and defined by an epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell. The only thing they have got wrong is that they didn't manage to keep it out of care homes. Basically the novel coronavirus is spreading in much the same way as the familiar coronaviruses do, with a similar number of asymptomatic carriers. Spain, Italy, the UK and Sweden all have different policies regarding "lockdown" but all appear to be following the same data curve. Hopefully, things will progress according to the predicted curve.
Click to expand...
Yep. I had a read of it. I guess there is still some wait and see going on at the moment.
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy


Today part of the role of the data is in the debate between public entities about what they should include. Yesterday the question of integrating case data has already emerged, now that it has gone through a rapid test phase to apply to risk or essential groups: the elderly in nursing homes, staff as well as health workers. That increased the number of cases yesterday, as explained by the Ministry of Health, announcing that it would last for a few days. Today we add the question of whether and how to integrate into official statistics the increase in deaths in residences, for which the test was not performed. Figures from the Generalitat of Catalonia have been given in this regard and at the moment the solution applied is not to include them in the official list of total coronavirus deaths.

Therefore, on these two days, the daily case data is altered, but not the deceased data, with respect to the criteria applied in the previous days. That gives comparable figures to assess the epidemic trend for the deceased.

The cases declared in the last 24 hours have been 5,183, 5,092 yesterday and 3,045 the day before yesterday. This means that, for the first time, the multiplication rate does not drop for three days in a row. It's at 1.10.

The reported deaths have been 551. In the same area as in the previous three days. As always, we have to wait for the next few days to see if the downward trend rebukes. 19,130 deaths in total. Multiplication rate at 1.13.

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Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy (not happy about an issue concerning the numbers today)

Google translation:

Data from Friday, April 17

Today we have experienced a really puzzling situation because in the Ministry's own data they have given inconsistent data between the difference in total deaths between yesterday and today (19,478-19,130 = 348) and the number of new deaths, of 585. They attribute this to the fact that they are making the adjustment of calculation of deceased in some community. It is lawful and logical to adjust the data because it is considered that it has been miscounted so far, but it is very difficult to understand (I do not succeed) that while I have not made the adjustment, the criterion is applied in a category (total deaths) new while in the other (new deceased) invariant criteria is applied. That old criteria be applied to both or new criteria to both, without strange transitions.

Two weeks ago the global information on total hospitalizations and ICUs was lost because communities were allowed to apply different and incompatible accounting criteria. And it was a great loss to be able to track the epidemic on these important factors.

Let us hope that the shocking mismatch in counting the deceased is corrected as soon as possible. As long as that does not happen, the multiplication rate of deceased taking the reference of total deceased cannot be used. Therefore, at the moment I do not publish the number of total deaths or the multiplication rate, and I retain only the information on daily deaths.

As it has been pointed out, they indicate that there were 585 deaths, by 551 yesterday.

As for the cases, the impact of the expansion of risk group tests continues, which maintains the figure above 5,000, at 5,252 (+69). Although the rise is due to increased testing, this leads to the multiplication rate rising for the first time, which goes to 1.11.

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Gowns produced locally to us

https://elejido.ideal.es/elejido/ejido-inicia-fabricacion-20200417171920-nt.html

Chrome translation:

El Ejido begins manufacturing waterproof gowns for health personnel

About 300 people are working in logistics for the preparation and distribution of the pieces. A total of 400,000 units is expected

'Si tú caes Yo caigo' is the new campaign that has been launched from the municipality of El Ejido for the development of waterproof gowns for health personnel who are fighting against this Covid-19 pandemic.

A new initiative, coordinated by the Municipality of El Ejido, in which about 300 people participate in the preparation and distribution of the pieces, among which are volunteers, seamstresses, municipal workers and Civil Protection, as well as important companies in the municipality such as Solplast and Sotrafa, who donate the material, and Agropal, which is in charge of cleaning and disinfecting the sheets.

For the production of these waterproof gowns there are 600 coils with which waterproofing sheets are formed, a material widely used in the agricultural sector. This material has been chosen precisely because it is the one recommended by the Poniente Sanitary District to offer all the necessary security guarantees in these cases.

Once the patterns are cut, each of the pieces is heat-sealed to make the robes and they are sent to the Socio-Cultural Hall of Santa María del Águila, where they are arranged to undergo a cleaning and disinfection treatment with products that are certified of the Ministry of Health.

The forecast is for a total of 400,000 pieces to be made that will be distributed in the coming weeks.

In this sense, the mayor of El Ejido, Francisco Góngora, today delivered the first units made of sanitary material to the territorial delegate of Health, Juan de la Cruz Belmonte, in the Socio-Cultural Hall of Santa María del Águila next to the mayor of Commerce, Health and Consumption, Montserrat Cervantes; the precursor of the initiative 'If you fall I fall' and the president of the Local Board, Juan Carlos Brabezo.
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Data for Saturday, April 18

We continue with the dance of data series with inconsistencies. Today it is the turn of declared cases. According to the official sources of the Ministry of Health

Yesterday Total Cases: 188,068

Total cases today: 191,726

Difference: 3,658

But at the same time in the table it indicates that the new cases today are 4,499, an internal mismatch of 835 cases. They will know.
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Managing the perplexity of not knowing which of the two differences is the "good", we are left with that of new cases of 4,499, knowing that the multiplication rate is misaligned with these accounting mysteries.

In good trend with new cases, since those 4,499 cases are 753 less than yesterday.

Instead, it seems that we are entering the Italian phase with respect to the daily death rate, which remains stable in the 500-620 range. Today they are 565, yesterday 585. There are already 9 days in that margin without falling below 500. Italy has been in that strip for 13 days. We are moving away from the exit pattern from the Wuhan crisis. The multiplication rate, at 1.11.

SpainCoronavirusStats18April2020.jpg
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data from Sunday, April 19

Very positive data on important progress in controlling the effects of the epidemic. The daily deceased falls to 410, 155 less than yesterday. Not only does it drop from the 500 deaths for the first time since March 23, but it is also at the low of 400. The consequences of the sustained drop in the number of cases of daily contagions are finally seen, which was many stronger than the deceased. In principle, the risk of underestimation of data due to the weekend effect should be more limited in this fundamental data on deaths.

It is likely that there will be a rebound with respect to this figure in the following days, but we hope that this drop will already be conquered, because the number of hospitalized and in the ICU is also heading in this direction. All in all, and with the seriousness of the situation we are still in (410 deaths in one day!) We must continue with caution the situation. Knowing also that Italy also lived a day when it fell to 431 deaths but then returned to figures of more than 500 deaths per day. The multiplication rate reaches a new low, at 1.10.

Containment of new cases continues, with 4,218 (-281). 195,944 cases in total. The multiplication rate returns to 1.10, which it lost a few days ago with the extension of the daily tests.

By the way, today there are no inconsistencies between the additions and subtractions of the tables published by the Ministry of Health.

SpainCoronavirusStats19April2020.jpg
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Data from Monday, April 20

Yesterday's data is repeated, thus reinforcing the good path of containing the epidemic, with the caveats and precautions of the weekend figures. Tomorrow there will be more perspective to see how real the decline is.

Those who died in the last 24 hours stood at 399, 11 less than yesterday, 118 less than a week ago. They are 20852 in total. The multiplication rate of deceased is already below 1.1, at 1.09. In the last four days the increase in deaths has been 9%. A week ago it was 15%.

New cases, 4,266, in line with the previous two days. The Ministry of Health pointed out that the increase in new cases (compared to the 3,000 newspapers we had a week ago) would be noticeable to this date, after having tested the elderly in nursing homes, caregivers and health personnel. We will see if there is a further drop in positives soon. The total number of cases, 200,210. Stable multiplication rate at 1.10.

I have modified the data series included in the table. I expel from it the data of the truncated series of hospitalization and total ICU due to the lack of homogenization of accounting criteria by the Autonomous Communities. So far the complaint, sterile. I replace it with the daily case and death data.

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Some good news for Spain. Strange when 430 deaths is good news!

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:

Data from Tuesday, April 21

Third day in a row with similar outlook in new cases and daily deaths, now with complete absorption of the dreaded weekend effect. He points out, therefore, that we are one step lower in controlling the epidemic.

There are 430 deaths in the last 24 hours, three days in a row below the figure of 500, so it seems that we are moving away from the area where we were stuck for 9 days. 21,282 deaths in total. The multiplication rate is maintained at 1.09.

There has been no significant rebound in the number of new cases either, as they actually dropped slightly, to 3,968 (-298). 205,602 cases in total. The multiplication rate is reduced to 1.09.

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