Benidorm Curfew/Spanish Lockdown.

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation

Stabilization of the number of daily deaths: today 728, yesterday 756, the day before yesterday 743. It seems that the rate of sharp decline last weekend was too optimistic and was not a reflection of the underlying trend, which is now slower. Italy, which reached its peak of deaths a week before us, was also in the teeth of the mountains before having the notable fall of these last days. I add the graph of deceased newspapers of Italy, to show comparison.

5,756 new cases, 6,180 yesterday. It would be necessary to know if, as in Italy, the number of daily tests is increasing a lot. Yesterday in Italy they went from 34,000 to 52,000. If it goes up a lot (which is good for those with symptoms and to ensure the isolation of the positives) the problem is that the comparison of data to see the trend loses solidity.
SpainCoronavirusStats9April2020.jpg
 
Article about what the Spanish Prime Minister has said this morning about lock down

There is a story here on on the Diario Almería site:

https://www.diariodealmeria.es/espana/Pedro-Sanchez-estado-alarma_0_1453954741.html

Here is a Google translation:

Pedro Sánchez: "The state of alarm will last what the scientists tell us"

Economic activity does recover from next Monday

The Prime Minister explains in Congress that our ways of life will change, even after the transition phase

The economic activity that was suspended two weeks ago recovers from next Monday. Companies and workers must adopt hygiene and social distance measures in offices and factories, but the general break is over. This has been confirmed this Holy Thursday, the strangest of all since the Civil War, the Prime Minister in Congress.

"The state of alarm will last what scientists tell us." Pedro Sánchez has stepped on the brake towards the possible recovery of normal life from the last week of April. Furthermore, Sánchez has insisted that the de-escalation will be progressive, very cautious, and even advanced that our ways of life will be forever different. As the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, has already warned on numerous occasions, the transition process is not written, the technicians need more data and, especially, the results of the large seroepidemiological survey that will begin this Monday with tests in 30,000 households in Spain.

Spain will celebrate this Sunday four weeks of general confinement, the last two have also been of general economic slowdown, in which only the so-called essential activities have been allowed. All the ones that worked before April 6 are back to normal this Monday. Sánchez has requested the extension of the state of alarm in Congress until April 25. It is not ruled out that another tranche will be requested again, although the conditions would be different.

Despite that call for resistance, because there are still two weeks left, Pedro Sánchez has said that "we see the light at the end of the tunnel." "We have passed through the peak of contagion, we are flattening the curve, but the recovery will be harsh," warned the president, who recalled the cruelty suffered by thousands of elderly people who have died alone in residences.

MY INTERPRETATION OF THE SITUATION

The almost 2 week ongoing period of extreme lock down has perhaps set us on a path towards the end of the first phase of this crisis in Spain. By saying that we are going back to where we were at the beginning of the lock down is a form of loosening it. With I guess some (if not all) non-essential businesses being able to have people travel to work. So, for example, the construction industry can start work again.


I guess we will get a fuller statement about what comes in the next period by Easter Sunday (12 April 2020).
 
spanishman said:
Yet to flatten the curve in Spain

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020...tate-of-alarm-could-be-extended-until-may-10/

Tell me about it. I am about to go out on the terrace to do some exercises. Plus run up and down the stairs down to the swimming pool. To try to flatten the curve in my belly.
Click to expand...

Good point about the excitement and anticipation of the lockdown being relaxed. You can see this is the UK as well, to a much greater extent I think, and far too prematurely
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation

Very good data today, with the number of daily deaths at a new low after the peak: 605, by 683 yesterday and 757 the day before yesterday. 15,843 deaths in total. It gives a boost to the multiplication rate, which stands at 1.21. Total cases now increase by 21% every 4 days. A week ago they increased by 49%.

Reduction in daily positives, by 4,576 times 5,756 yesterday. Total cases at 157,022. The rate, at 1.16.

Today's positive data must be taken with caution because on these Easter days there may be a significant slowdown in registration processes, which somewhat underestimates reality.
SpainCoronavirusStats10April2020.jpg
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation

Another day that invites us to see that the epidemic is being controlled in Spain, although we apply caution again due to the possible Easter effect that leads to a late registration of the deceased.

With that exception, a really very positive trend: 510 deaths today, 605 yesterday, 757 three days ago. 16,363 deaths since the start of the epidemic. The multiplication rate already falls below 1.2, to 1.19.

Stability in the number of infections reported, at 4,830 today, by 4,576 yesterday. 161,852 in total We have already pointed to the problem of the significant increase in the number of daily tests, which prevents having clear references to compare the evolution with previous days. This issue can cause problems when confinement is de-escalated, since it will make it difficult to know if the increase in cases (or their slow descent) is due to the increase in tests or to the relaxation of social distancing. The second is important to know and control it.
SpainCoronavirusStats11April2020.jpg
 
Police checking for non-locals entering Mercadona in my small town today - 11 April 2020

The police are checking that it is only locals who enter our main supermarket today. They are trying to find people who have come down here to second homes. With long queues at the supermarket as well. Due to a one out one in policy to control flow through the supermarket.

They are checking residency information for people on the way in. As here in Spain you are supposed to carry that information with you at all times.

 
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Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
SpainCoronavirusStats12April2020.jpg
Data for Sunday, April 12

The daily death toll is again above 600, at 619. Yesterday's data, especially good, with 510 deaths gave an accelerated decline trend, which today seems not to correspond to the underlying trend. The fall rate of the previous three days was 82 fewer deaths per day. With today's data, we return to the bottom trend of 30-33 deaths less per day, 100 less every 3 days, from the high of April 2. It is still a clearly higher rate than that of Italy at the moment, since the number of deaths there is reduced by 20 a day, on average.

Total death toll at 16,972. The multiplication rate of deceased already falls to 1.17 due to the concatenation of so many days of falls (except today).

New low from the peak in the number of declared positives, at 4,167. We recall that this figure is more likely to have a strong Easter effect of slowing down the process of accounting for cases. Total cases, at 166,019.
 
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Google translation:
SpainCoronavirusStats13April2020.jpg
Data from Monday, April 13

We have to wait for the data on Wednesday to gauge the real situation we are in, but the data for the last few days is giving some reductions in daily cases and deaths that are really surprising because of how strong they are, taking Italy as a point of comparison .

As we have been saying for a few days, now it is the charts of the daily cases that tell the story at a glance.

Another drop in the death toll, to 517, from yesterday's 610. The figure of two days ago, of 510 deceased, is retaken. The next few days should confirm whether it is definitely moving away from the figure of 600 deaths per day. There are 17,489 deaths in total. Keep lowering the multiplication rate, now to 1.15.

The number of new cases dropped to 3,477,416 yesterday. 13 days ago there were 9,222. It is the minimum figure since March 20. Although the daily tests increased a few days ago, the systematic and almost constant drop for a week indicates a clear situation of brake to the expansion. There are 169,496 infected in total.
 
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