Wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems throwing their lot in with the tories and DUP rather than a Labour-SNP-Plaid-Green combo. I suppose Starmer binning off any semblance of socialist policy might attract them a little but in the end they'd surely follow their yellow tory instincts.
Whilst I agree that the Lib Dems shouldn’t be trusted (and I still haven’t forgiven them for agreeing to the last election), I think that, should the Tories fall short next time, the electoral maths would look after itself.
For the Tories to fail to gain an overall majority would not only require some form of resurgence by Labour in the north and midlands, it will need the Lib Dems to win Tory seats in the south. By definition, those voters will be actively rejecting the Tory government and be comfortable with the idea of Starmer as PM (in a way that they weren’t with Corbyn).
If a party with an 80 seat majority, who’ve been in power for 14 years, fail to win the general election, that’s a clear call by the electorate for change. The Lib Dems would have no alternative but to support a Labour government, as doing otherwise probably would kill them off for good that time.
The problem, of course, is getting to the point where the above scenario is possible. I agree with Finny that red wall Tories appear reluctant to switch back at the moment (perhaps afraid of admitting they were wrong?).
But 4 years is an eternity in politics. We know this government is probably the most incompetent in our history and that will be seen by more and more people over time.
I would have been happy with Corbyn as PM, but I have to accept that most people weren’t (rightly or wrongly). Starmer has made a decent start as leader and has begun to take the gloves off a bit more in his dealings with Johnson. If he can keep this going, I see genuine possibilities of a Labour government in 2024.