Are the Government massaging the death rate.

Duke said:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Actual daily deaths are now beginning to be posted online. The current daily death statistics we've been getting are nonsense and not accurate within the week, never mind the day.

Hopefully someone graphs this out since have a clearer picture.
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They've been posting them for a couple of weeks now. However, you can't compare them directly with the published UK daily death statistics, as this data only relates to England. From what I've been able to ascertain, none of the other devolved nations publish their data in this format.

The other health warning with this data is that it is subject to change, particularly for the most recent four days. Those numbers tend to be revised upwards (often significantly) over the following days.

Analysis of these data (which I remind people only covers England) basically shows a continuously growing trend, from approx. 100 per day three weeks ago, 2-300 per day two weeks ago, 5-600 per day last week and it touched 700 four days ago. Like I've mentioned, the most recent days then show smaller numbers, but they will be revised upwards in the coming days.

I wouldn't describe the current daily statistics as nonsense. They are an accurate record of the number of deaths which are able to be reported each day, and they also show an increasing trend in line with the NHS England data. As has been mentioned previously on this thread, it is the trend which is by far the most important factor, rather than the absolute accuracy of any individual data.
 
No further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, total remaining at 83.

Two further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, taking total to 31.

South Tees NHS Trust are now joint 5th highest (from joint 3rd yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the joint 45th highest (from 37th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are 17th (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 109th (from 108th yesterday) in the country.
 
RandySavage said:
Who are the highest and lowest in the north east and Yorkshire out of curiosity?
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The highest is South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Trust with 156 deaths. Sunderland has recently been announced as a new location for a Nightingale Hospital.

Lowest are Humber Teaching NHS Trust and Rotherham, Doncaster and South Humber NHS Trust, both with one death each. They are both joint bottom in the country (alongside a further 12 NHS Trusts).
 
Anyone reporting on a Covid-19 app?

The one I'm using has about 1000 contributers each from R&C and Middlesbrough, which is a reasonably high number. Currently the figures, if averaged over the population, suggest 5000 people from each of those local authorities are reporting symptoms or a positive test. (5% of Middlesbrough and 3.5% of R&C.
 
bear66 said:
Anyone reporting on a Covid-19 app?

The one I'm using has about 1000 contributers each from R&C and Middlesbrough, which is a reasonably high number. Currently the figures, if averaged over the population, suggest 5000 people from each of those local authorities are reporting symptoms or a positive test. (5% of Middlesbrough and 3.5% of R&C.
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I'm using this one.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/blog

Have been for a about 2 weeks now.
 
Why is it in the public interest though? To report any of the daily deaths? For me it should be weekly.
 
Unfortunately, it's not really possible to report them daily, as you are dealing with hundreds (if not thousands) of independently run care homes with diferent reporting systems, rather than one nationally operated health service. Also, the vast majority will not have been tested for Covid-19, whereas all of the hospital reported deaths have tested positive.

Therefore, you're really relying on the information contained on the death certificates which are then registered with the local authority. These deaths are included in the weekly publication by ONS, but there is a 2-week time lag with those to enable deaths to be certified and then registered.
 
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bear66 said:
Same here. You can go to the map radar to see results so far.
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1.68% on my area estimated with it. I live in a rural location so to be in expected really.

Also I imagine those of us who live in rural locations may be luckier than those who live in built up suburban areas.
 
The ONS figures look too low/conservative, based on stories coming out of care/nursing homes.

I unfortunately suspect as many are dying away from hospitals as in hospitals.

The are around 400000 residents in the UK Care Home sector with the average resident aged around 89 and highly vulnerable.

Another area for current high deaths rates are in Prisons - are Prison hospitals recorded as hospital deaths?
 
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But if those who have died in care homes haven't been tested for covid-19 then how do we know it's covid-19 in all of them? Yes I appreciate some will be but are we at the stage now where EVERY death that doesn't occur in a hospital is now coronavirus related?
 
RandySavage said:
But if those who have died in care homes haven't been tested for covid-19 then how do we know it's covid-19 in all of them? Yes I appreciate some will be but are we at the stage now where EVERY death that doesn't occur in a hospital is now coronavirus related?
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its why the testing should be more widespread and why rates of overall deaths compared to the norm are important.
 
RandySavage said:
But if those who have died in care homes haven't been tested for covid-19 then how do we know it's covid-19 in all of them? Yes I appreciate some will be but are we at the stage now where EVERY death that doesn't occur in a hospital is now coronavirus related?
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A GP can only issue a death certificate if they have treated an individual for an illness, within the last 14 days, from which that GP can certify they have died. All other deaths must be reported to the coroner who would decide whether the GP can issue a death certificate based on their clinical judgement or whether a post mortem is required.

We're not suggesting that GPs would break the law are we?
 
No I'm not suggesting anything I'm just wondering what the rules and regs are when people die out of hospital at the moment. Are they automatically assumed to be covid-19? Unless any other obvious cause is seen?
 
RandySavage said:
No I'm not suggesting anything I'm just wondering what the rules and regs are when people die out of hospital at the moment. Are they automatically assumed to be covid-19? Unless any other obvious cause is seen?
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Like I say, and I’m not aware that the law has changed, unless the individual has been treated by a GP for suspected Covid-19 within the preceding 14 days, then it would be illegal for a doctor to simply issue a death certificate. The death would have to be reported to the coroner who would decide whether a post mortem was required.

Incidentally, I say suspected Covid-19 because they’re unlikely to be tested outside of a hospital setting. That is the fault of our testing regime, not the reporting doctors.
 
That's what I'm concerned about. Is the media now going to be reporting every death at a care home and a personal home as a covid-19 death even though before this virus kicked off people still died in settings outside of a hospital?
 
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