Are the Government massaging the death rate.

Every Tuesday, all death certificated that include covid-19 are counted - next week it's up to 3 Apr.

The last few days, the daily figure was said to only include about 15% of the deaths that day. The rest are from up to a week, and sometimes two weeks before.
 
bear66 said:
Every Tuesday, all death certificated that include covid-19 are counted - next week it's up to 3 Apr.

The last few days, the daily figure was said to only include about 15% of the deaths that day. The rest are from up to a week, and sometimes two weeks before.
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So actual total so far is much higher than the 10600 being quoted



🐔
 
Funky_Chicken said:
So actual total so far is much higher than the 10600 being quoted



🐔
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Yes. Mainly for home and care homes and the daily inaccuracy. Last Tuesday there was 60% discrepancy which sounds really bad, but it'll be less than that due to the catch-up. Other countries have reported about 20% higher figures. It was said today that France now include them which is why their figures look bigger than us, Italy, Spain.
 
bear66 said:
Here
Link

Although it's easier googling "ONS weekly Covid-19 figures" as someone will have distilled out the numbers in a simpler format.
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150,000+ people dying between end of December and end of march? Staggering amount of people.
 
RandySavage said:
150,000+ people dying between end of December and end of march? Staggering amount of people.
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Supposedly about 500,000 per year, weighted higher in winter months. You'd think the numbers who've died would be 'lost' in that number, but if you've lost relatives and tried to arrange a funeral in the winter months (I've lost two in the last few years) it can be 3-4 weeks to find a 'slot'. With close to an extra 1000 deaths a day compared with a 'normal' average of 1500, you can see why temporary morgues have become necessary.

What's hit me most about this is how relatives are not able to see their loved ones when they're close to passing away. It must be devastating.
 
Bear

Not many allowed at a funeral a distant relative of us died 2 days ago and only very close relatives will be able to go to the funeral, because they died from the virus. Hopefully there will be a proper memorial service later in the year.
 
Redwurzel said:
Bear

Not many allowed at a funeral a distant relative of us died 2 days ago and only very close relatives will be able to go to the funeral, because they died from the virus. Hopefully there will be a proper memorial service later in the year.
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maximum of 8 isn’t it?
 
Latest graphC2D0720C-EF12-4101-A72C-2DDEE78926A2.png. France has now been adjusted to exclude deaths in nursing homes to bring them into line with everyone else.
 
That chart doesn't look right - for the US at least. John Hopkins and Worldometer have deaths in the US flat for the last week or so.

If you take out the numbers for New York, the US looks to have done a decent job. Their deaths per million is as good as Germany without New York numbers. Perhaps it's population density that is the driving factor. Or the presence of a heavily used transit system where it's impossible to isolate.
 
RandySavage said:
This could also be true but I fail to see why they wouldn't test for it if they had all the symptoms?
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It's not specified where the person died but if it was at home, they wouldn't have been tested. Even if they died in hospital they still might not have been tested because as the BBC article linked to below says:
At the moment, most tests are reserved for seriously ill patients in hospital.

It means the majority of people who have symptoms can't find out if they are currently infected with coronavirus.
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Coronavirus testing

In many hospitals (if not most) that means only patients admitted to intensive care are tested.

Edit: (Unless things have changed since that article was published, 5 days ago).
 
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br14 said:
That chart doesn't look right - for the US at least. John Hopkins and Worldometer have deaths in the US flat for the last week or so.

If you take out the numbers for New York, the US looks to have done a decent job. Their deaths per million is as good as Germany without New York numbers. Perhaps it's population density that is the driving factor. Or the presence of a heavily used transit system where it's impossible to isolate.
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I think the chart is right. There was a period of figures around 1100 per day and then a period of 6 days at about 1800 per day. The increase per day is on a 7 day running average looks right as an 1100 figure is replaced by an 1800 figure. Assuming the leveling off continues, the 7 day running average will peak today and then level off/fall.
 
Unfortunately we only have data points up to 27 March from the ONS that uses death registrations. The 3 Apr data comes out tomorrow. Someone posted a graph for the first two weeks comparing daily (hospital only) and ONS figures on another thread. It looked like the the figures were about 70% higher at that time. The delay in reporting means that when the daily figures peak, we will, in reality, be on our way down the suppression curve.
 
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