Are the Government massaging the death rate.
- Thread starter asredastheycome
- Start date
Billy Horner
Well-known member
35% increase in hospital admissions within Yorkshire and the North East. Second highest increase in the country (behind the Midlands at 47%).
bear66
Well-known member
That's not good. It looks like the percentage being presented to hospitals doesn't mean much if more of them are then hospitalised.
Is there a link to be able to see that data?
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Gove just mentioned it at the press conference. I'll see if I can find the actual stats anywhere (TBH I've struggled to find a good source for hospital admissions data).
bear66
Well-known member
Just seen that. Seems real.
bear66
Well-known member
I've seen that graph on two press conferences. Wondered if there is a link.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Can't find a dataset published specifically for hospital admissions. However, they appear to publish the slides and datasets to accompany the daily press conferences.
This is today's link:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...any-coronavirus-press-conference-4-april-2020
If you click on the dataset option, it opens an Excel spreadsheet that includes daily hospital admissions by region (second tab). I'll try and do some analysis of this later.
bear66
Well-known member
Thanks!
Randy
Well-known member
I saw on twitter earlier a scientist had said the test for Coronavirus is pointless because even if you don't have it when tested, 5 minutes later you could have picked it up. Recommends countries focus on the test that tells people if they have had the virus or not.
Judging by the cases we are seeing worldwide it makes sense to me.
Judging by the cases we are seeing worldwide it makes sense to me.
bear66
Well-known member
Apparently that's no use till 28 days after infection from reports yesterday. Perhaps that's why none of the tests for antibodies have worked.
Randy
Well-known member
Yeah agreed. Maybes they should focus more on that instead of rolling out tests to see if you have it currently for everybody. That and a vaccine of course.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
So, I thought this hospital admissions dataset must be the cumulative total of daily admissions, but then noticed it reducing in certain regions towards the end of the period. Therefore (and this is a guess because they don't actually tell you), I think it's a record of all patients who are hospitalised with Covid-19 on any given day.
Anyway, I think the data is probably illustrating how the virus is spreading around the country. For example, on 17th March (Day 1), London accounted for 60% of all hospitalisations whilst the North East & Yorkshire was just 6%. Fast forward to 3rd April and London accounts for 30% of hospitalisations, whilst North East & Yorkshire has increased to 14% (of much bigger numbers obviously).
In a similar vein, the numbers for London have increased by less than the national average on 16 of the 18 days in the dataset. Conversely, the numbers for the North East & Yorkshire have increased by more than the national average on 17 out of 18 days.
This would appear to no longer be an issue mainly in London and becoming less and less so every day.
Anyway, I think the data is probably illustrating how the virus is spreading around the country. For example, on 17th March (Day 1), London accounted for 60% of all hospitalisations whilst the North East & Yorkshire was just 6%. Fast forward to 3rd April and London accounts for 30% of hospitalisations, whilst North East & Yorkshire has increased to 14% (of much bigger numbers obviously).
In a similar vein, the numbers for London have increased by less than the national average on 16 of the 18 days in the dataset. Conversely, the numbers for the North East & Yorkshire have increased by more than the national average on 17 out of 18 days.
This would appear to no longer be an issue mainly in London and becoming less and less so every day.
r00fie1
Well-known member
Whats a crying disgrace is the Governments complete failure to protect the health and safety of all those Doctors, Nurses and Health Professionals who are fighting to save peoples lives: Not only do they not have access to adequate testing, but there is a massive shortage of ventilators and PPE.
Alvez_48
Well-known member
Just remember when these horrible figures we're all seeing keep coming out and again I say this with the people who are suffering in mind not least my friends..
These numbers are people who die with coronavirus not of coronavirus and with the current available testing remember that the more people you test the more confirmed cases you get. We desperately need anti body testing (that works).
These numbers are people who die with coronavirus not of coronavirus and with the current available testing remember that the more people you test the more confirmed cases you get. We desperately need anti body testing (that works).
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Alvez, I understand your sentiments but I would have to disagree with your interpretation of the statistics.
We are only testing people who have illness severe enough to require hospitalisation. Of those who then test positive, we are only reporting the number who subsequently die within the hospital setting.
There may be an incredibly small number who had other critical illness in addition to their Covid-19 diagnosis, but it will be so small as to be of no statistical significance. That number would also be dwarfed by the Covid-19 deaths occurring in the community that are not included in the daily figures.
These are people who are indeed dying OF Coronavirus. This is also why you can’t compare this with the numbers who are estimated to die annually from seasonal flu-related complications, because those numbers are purely estimates based on the number of excess deaths during the flu season.
Anyone who thinks this is anything other than the greatest public health emergency we have faced in our lifetimes is still in denial.
Average lifespan in a senior citizens home is about 5 years. So when the virus rages through one of the homes, the majority are close to death anyway. They might have survived a year or two longer. But then many of the elderly die of pneumonia caused by influenza in normal years - hence the saying "pneumonia the old man's friend".
For comparison of the 500,000 who die each year in the UK, around 125000 people die of cancer, and a similar number from heart disease. Neither of those are particularly pleasant deaths - especially cancer.
Considering the impact of flu - in 2012 28,952 people died of pneumonia, more than likely viral pneumonia from influenza. Of those 27,520 were over 65. In 2015 as you suggest excess deaths suggest 28000 died from influenza.
As Alvez said what we need more than anything is to know how many people are infected. And for that we need antibody tests. If we know that 30% of the population have been infected (or even more as per the U of Oxford analysis) then the government can select the right strategy. We'll have a far better idea about the pressure on the NHS - which is really what the lock down is all about. They need to get some kind of test out into the field instead of farting about. Even a test that had errors could be useful for statistical analysis. As long as you know the error rate.
Icelandic research suggests 50% of all those tested were asymptomatic. And in numbers per million they've still tested more than anyone else. (Their mortality rate is currently 0.3% - not even as bad as a bad flu year - but it could get worse over time). Since the virus can survive on fomites for some time, it's likely even in Iceland a certain percentage had the virus without manifesting symptoms and were never tested. So the virus may be considerably more widespread than the figures suggest.
It isn't complex math to take the current assumed infection rate (2.6 per infected person) with a 5 day incubation (on average) and project the progress of this disease. About now without mitigation it takes off like a rocket and would infect half the country by late April. It all depends on when the virus first reached the country. If it was mid January, then many people might have had the virus without knowing, and doctors might not have realised they were treating Covid-19 because until mid January China didn't let on it was infectious. Even in late January the WHO were still saying not to worry about it.
locomansimon
Well-known member
the death of the 5 yr old was reported on facebook a few days ago but it was not widely believed now the news has come out rather belatedly makes me think the figures are being massaged
Laughing
Well-known member
br14 I think you are right about testing to get a handle on how widespread the virus is. If 60% of the country have had it or have it, we know we are over the peak. I don't think that is the case at the moment as the numbers are still increasing. But knowing where we are on a pro rata infection rate is vital to create an informed strategy.
Billy is right that it is the bigest public health issue in a generation. It has spread around the globe in no time at all, compare that with ebola for example.
Billy is right that it is the bigest public health issue in a generation. It has spread around the globe in no time at all, compare that with ebola for example.