I think there's little doubt that he's going to win. You shouldn't underestimate the sheer desperation, gullibility and ignorance of the local electorate - all you have to do is take a look at any facebook post about the airport, Teesworks, the mayoral election and it's clear that people have no idea and just suck up the hyperbole.
The power of social media is immense in an area like this, people take what they read on there as gospel and don't have the inclination to do any genuine research of their own, and unfortunately one thing you can't knock Ben for is the exploitation of this and his team's social media skills. This is what will win it for him.