A Week Today Boris will Outline Lockdown Exit Strategy

[Andy_W]

Lockdowns have obviously reduced infection and therefore death but it’s had some pretty dire consequences for individuals as well.
Mental illnesses, depression and loneliness will all shorten life as will bankruptcy and unemployment. There two sides to every coin and there must come a point soon where we have to tolerate an element of risk before the preventative cure becomes worse than the disease.

Mental illness is a two-sided thing too though, lifting lockdowns does not automatically lift mental illness. Let's not forget that for every one guy that dies there's another 3 that ended up in ICU but made it. The mental health impact on all four of their entire families is absolutely massive.

There are people that will struggle more than most in both scenarios though, whether that's covid or lockdown, they should be supported better, although not likely under the current government.

I disagree with that, I think a lot of people are really struggling and looking for that light at the end of the tunnel.

Vast majority are still adhering to the guidelines but we need some sort of hope that this is coming to an end and you can tell the government are getting ready for that with the 'live with it like the flu' media stuff over the weekend.

The light is there, it's shining quite brightly to me, they just don't want to advertise it's there as some will put 2+2 together and get 5, or jump the gun.

It's like we're all in a dark cave, the light will have to be introduced slowly, otherwise, everyone will rush out and get blinded.

 

[BoroMart]

I don't. Other than the fact it was shut first and when it was open had restrictions that no other sector had and cases still rose rapidly even when closed.

Magic eh?

Cases still rose because it had implanted thousands of new cases. Then the government told everyone to spend christmas together just to mess things up even more.

There are two hypothesis, one that mingling with other people (in such cases as the hospitality sector for example) increases infections, and your hypothesis that it doesn't.

Now the first hypothesis follows proven knowledge of respiratory viruses, that have been successfully beaten in the past by reducing contact between people....and there is your hypothesis that mixing people together in social settings has no impact on infections. The simple and logical hypothesis built on previous knowledge tends to be the right one, rather than a left field hypothesis that goes against the grain of knowledge. I know why you want it hospitality back, I get it, it's your livelihood. But the desire for something to happen doesn't make it safe.

 

[BoroMart]

Mental health seems to have been adopted by the libertarian right, as some sort of tool to try and undermine lockdowns that harm their ability to make money. In reality these are often the same people that scoffed at things such as mental health crisis and for the last decade defunded the vast majority of the support networks for mental health....so excuse me if I don't take these claims with anything but scepticism

 

[Randy]

Cases still rose because it had implanted thousands of new cases. Then the government told everyone to spend christmas together just to mess things up even more.

There are two hypothesis, one that mingling with other people (in such cases as the hospitality sector for example) increases infections, and your hypothesis that it doesn't.

Now the first hypothesis follows proven knowledge of respiratory viruses, that have been successfully beaten in the past by reducing contact between people....and there is your hypothesis that mixing people together in social settings has no impact on infections. The simple and logical hypothesis built on previous knowledge tends to be the right one, rather than a left field hypothesis that goes against the grain of knowledge. I know why you want it hospitality back, I get it, it's your livelihood. But the desire for something to happen doesn't make it safe.

As I've already stated I'm quite comfortable at the moment not being at work full time.

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Variants.


In closing because it's obvious how the majority of this forum sits, with well paid jobs, financial security etc restrictions are coming to an end, this lockdown will not last for the rest of the year and it won't happen again. You know why I'm confident of that? Because of the vaccine.

 

[BoroMart]

As I've already stated I'm quite comfortable at the moment not being at work full time.

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Variants.

variants have seen a spike, true, and some people relaxed over christmas because of stupid government messages. The time isn't right, yet, to open up hospitality. We ned to get infections much lower, we need to get vaccinations much higher, then we can look at kick starting things, but it needs to be done a bit at a time. Make a change, measure, review, then change again. Time for the government to start to act like responsible governors, they need to have access to data and knowledge that identifies the impact of certain changes, so do it slowly and ina measured way.

 

[Soutra]

Clearly nobody wants to be locked down longer than necessary, and it must be done in stages, not like flicking a light switch. Everyone needs a bit of notice that ( for example) shops can open.

So someone has to look at the figures and extrapolate forwards as to when infections, hospitalizations and deaths will be low enough on a national basis. I don't think that'll be easy.

 

[MolteniArcore]

I think it's a bit daft that they are proposing to open pubs (outdoors?) on easter weekend. Gives us a good 4 days to get boozed up and make up for the months we haven't seen our mates for. Crazy.

Anyway... what will happen is it will spread in schools and then they will bring it home to parents. Infection rates will go up as kids and younger parents aren't vaccinated. The rates will go up but we won't lock down because deaths won't be rising massively. We will then have a half lockdown drag all the way through summer until we can get the majority of adults vaccinated. We will have to hope that another variant doesn't come along in the meantime too. Joy.

I hope I'm wrong and what actually happens if we open up, infection rates stay low and and remain so whilst the adults get vaccinated. Then we will be cured!

 

[Randy]

Keep schools closed forever Molteni!!

The teachers can retrain and the children can work in the zinc mines for the solar panels!

 

[Andy_W]

I think it's a bit daft that they are proposing to open pubs (outdoors?) on easter weekend. Gives us a good 4 days to get boozed up and make up for the months we haven't seen our mates for. Crazy.

Anyway... what will happen is it will spread in schools and then they will bring it home to parents. Infection rates will go up as kids and younger parents aren't vaccinated. The rates will go up but we won't lock down because deaths won't be rising massively. We will then have a half lockdown drag all the way through summer until we can get the majority of adults vaccinated. We will have to hope that another variant doesn't come along in the meantime too. Joy.

I hope I'm wrong and what actually happens if we open up, infection rates stay low and and remain so whilst the adults get vaccinated. Then we will be cured!

I think they're daft to plan for it, but I think it may end up being reasonable to allow it at later notice....pending good cases/vaccine/ death numbers.

We hit sub 10k cases today, and easter is still 2 months away. They're hoping to have the 50-70's vaccinated by then too, which should hopefully stop the NHS from being crippled.

We still have another 3 weeks of good declines before the kids go back on the 8th, if we keep up the 25% reductions that's down to 4k cases by then, numbers which we've not had since mid-September.

I wonder if they plan to mass test the kids during March?

 

[Jimstewart]

Mental health seems to have been adopted by the libertarian right, as some sort of tool to try and undermine lockdowns that harm their ability to make money. In reality these are often the same people that scoffed at things such as mental health crisis and for the last decade defunded the vast majority of the support networks for mental health....so excuse me if I don't take these claims with anything but scepticism

I can only give you my personal experience but my niece has had her mental health badly effected by lockdown. Severely autistic all PA, respite and residential services have been withdrawn due to lockdown. All mental and physical care has been put full square on the two family members that live with her. She had a routine of the farm at coulby newham, a centre at Albert Park and periodical residential care in Linthorpe. All withdrawn and routine to people like her is vital. Not only has her mental health deteriorated so has that of her family carers . I am told that one of the many groups that look after vulnerable adults such as her has 68 members . Their stories will be more or less the same with the burden of care switching entirely with whoever lives with them. This has happened nationwide and none of the above has anything to do with money or undermining lockdowns. It has to do with the unseen consequences of lockdown.

 

[Muttley]

I don't mean this to denigrate what you and your family have gone through Jim but she is still alive thank God and she will get back to her routine. And if my limited knowledge of Autistic people is anything to go by once that routine is re-established will be no worse for it. The family will I hope recover also. Over one hundred thousand families will not get to do that, their futures irredeemably changed by their loved lost ones to the virus and then there are the sufferers with "long-COVID" those who will require medical treatment long into the future, perhaps for the rest of their lives.

There is a mental health crisis coming and I hope that there will be measures put in place to help because I think a lot of medical professionals will be changed by what they have experienced in this pandemic, I hope we reward them with the support they are going to need.

If we learn nothing else from this we should learn that we need society that we need each other.

 

[Jimstewart]

I don't mean this to denigrate what you and your family have gone through Jim but she is still alive thank God and she will get back to her routine. And if my limited knowledge of Autistic people is anything to go by once that routine is re-established will be no worse for it. The family will I hope recover also. Over one hundred thousand families will not get to do that, their futures irredeemably changed by their loved lost ones to the virus and then there are the sufferers with "long-COVID" those who will require medical treatment long into the future, perhaps for the rest of their lives.

There is a mental health crisis coming and I hope that there will be measures put in place to help because I think a lot of medical professionals will be changed by what they have experienced in this pandemic, I hope we reward them with the support they are going to need.

If we learn nothing else from this we should learn that we need society that we need each other.

Cheers Muttley I appreciate your comments. You are right she will get through it she is young and to be honest my biggest concern is for the two older members of the family that are currently caring for her 24/7. There’s tens of thousands like them and their voices are rarely heard.

 

[Tommy_Dickfingers]

So if the leaks are true, schools back in a fortnight but nearly 5 weeks until we can mix outdoors with anyone else and no sign of any sort of normality for 2,3 even 4 months.

What was the point of having a mass vaccination drive to jab the vunerable and elderly if the rest of us can't get back to some sort of life again ?

This just has the feeling of going on & on now and on a wet monday morning in February, it doesn't exactly make you feel optimistic.

 

[SmallTown]

So if the leaks are true, schools back in a fortnight but nearly 5 weeks until we can mix outdoors with anyone else and no sign of any sort of normality for 2,3 even 4 months.

What was the point of having a mass vaccination drive to jab the vunerable and elderly if the rest of us can't get back to some sort of life again ?

This just has the feeling of going on & on now and on a wet monday morning in February, it doesn't exactly make you feel optimistic.

To be fair we've not even fully vaccinated 1% of the country yet. These things take time. It needs to be a slow introduction back to normal sadly. I hope the largest disease vectors have been calculated and will be opening last. I still question some of the dimensions made though. No one has explained why its ok to meet one friend outdoors yet not play golf with that same friend.

 

[MolteniArcore]

So if the leaks are true, schools back in a fortnight but nearly 5 weeks until we can mix outdoors with anyone else and no sign of any sort of normality for 2,3 even 4 months.

What was the point of having a mass vaccination drive to jab the vunerable and elderly if the rest of us can't get back to some sort of life again ?

This just has the feeling of going on & on now and on a wet monday morning in February, it doesn't exactly make you feel optimistic.

I think the main problem is we have to have kids back in school but we don't really have much of an idea how the new variants will react to this.

We know that the vaccines aren't as effective on the SA variant so we don't want to be in a position where it spreads like wildfire in the schools then overloads hospitals with vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

I'd also imagine we want to get the infection rate a lot lower to reduce domestic new variants - slowly slowly is how we do this. Only another 6 weeks of pain and things will start opening back up. It'll soon be here.

 

[Randy]

To be fair we've not even fully vaccinated 1% of the country yet. These things take time. It needs to be a slow introduction back to normal sadly. I hope the largest disease vectors have been calculated and will be opening last. I still question some of the dimensions made though. No one has explained why its ok to meet one friend outdoors yet not play golf with that same friend.

Doesn't look like a normal anytime soon if ever again.
Largest disease vectors opening up last? What like hospitals, care homes, supermarkets and people's homes?

 

[MolteniArcore]

To be fair we've not even fully vaccinated 1% of the country yet. These things take time. It needs to be a slow introduction back to normal sadly. I hope the largest disease vectors have been calculated and will be opening last. I still question some of the dimensions made though. No one has explained why its ok to meet one friend outdoors yet not play golf with that same friend.

I'd imagine it's the same risk, but like what has been said time and time again by the Gov, there will be lots of little 'what ifs' like this but it is what it is. There isn't enough time to think of EVERY connotation of releasing lockdown and the way people mix and make thousands of rules for every sport etc. We just have to suck it up for a few weeks then we can all play golf again if we want.

 

[MolteniArcore]

Doesn't look like a normal anytime soon if ever again.

You may well be correct.

 

[Tommy_Dickfingers]

To be fair we've not even fully vaccinated 1% of the country yet. These things take time. It needs to be a slow introduction back to normal sadly. I hope the largest disease vectors have been calculated and will be opening last. I still question some of the dimensions made though. No one has explained why its ok to meet one friend outdoors yet not play golf with that same friend.

Without getting into a pointless debate with you ST, the evidence starting to emerge is that one jab is giving excellent efiacy (sp) and the governments 'gamble' looks like it was the right decision.

I've noticed that one of the 4 points of criteria is -

New variants of the virus do not fundamentally change the risk of lifting restrictions

Back door to infinite hokey-cokey lockdowns.

 

[SmallTown]

Without getting into a pointless debate with you ST, the evidence starting to emerge is that one jab is giving excellent efiacy (sp) and the governments 'gamble' looks like it was the right decision.

I've noticed that one of the 4 points of criteria is -

New variants of the virus do not fundamentally change the risk of lifting restrictions

Back door to infinite hokey-cokey lockdowns.

I agree and if the approach is proven to work then yes I'd feel a lot more relaxed. Also I'm not sure about hospitalizations but if you go on case numbers I think it's about time to start easing restrictions to get the country moving again. But I think we need to do it slowly and cautiously.