A Week Today Boris will Outline Lockdown Exit Strategy

I didn't for one second think there would even be reference to a date when 'no restrictions' in the document fair play on that and if they stick to it great.

I'm absolutely sure a lot of these dates have been pushed up due to public backlash, last night the leaks suggested nightclubs would open in August... Now it's June.

So it has certainly given me hope, they've dangled just the right amount of carrot for that. I do notice it's very 'back loaded' is that even a term? It's essentially very little to mid April. Then from mid may it's hyper speed.
 
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Randy said:
Add a month on to every one of those dates as the usual will **** themselves when cases creep up a little after the schools open.

21 June? Yeah right o.
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Cases were going down 10% per week with open schools from November to December, we're in a much better position now and will be even better by the 8th of March.

Since the last lockdown was lifted and to 8th of March we will have added at least another 3m cases and vaccinated 23m, and doubled testing.

I think we will easily meet all the targets required and the pubs and restaurants will start opening from 17th May, that still seems quite pessimistic to me, so I don't think it's false hope.
 
What you are all missing is that infection and death do not move in the same direction.
Vaccination will reduce the death rate and hopefully hospitalisation rate.
The government are prepared to allow the infection to travel through the less risky populations as long as the hospitalisation rates do not increase.
In some ways it is the only way that we will get back some sort of life. However what will be a problem is understanding the long term effects upon younger people.
 
Didn't have 'an end to restrictions' on my bingo sheet... was very surprised to hear that mentioned.

What started as a gloomy Monday morning has turned out quite alright. Clear blue skies in Redcar and the light is certainly approaching. Fingers crossed.
 
Smog in Wilts said:
What you are all missing is that infection and death do not move in the same direction.
Vaccination will reduce the death rate and hopefully hospitalisation rate.
The government are prepared to allow the infection to travel through the less risky populations as long as the hospitalisation rates do not increase.
In some ways it is the only way that we will get back some sort of life. However what will be a problem is understanding the long term effects upon younger people.
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Infection and death won't move in the same direction, down to the vaccine, most realise this (or should realise this, it's been the point for year).

But I disagree with your interpretation of this, with what they're doing now, with a slow lifting, is they're trying to get the vaccine to outpace the spread. For every restriction they lift, they will have had another 10m vaccinated.

By 8th March we will probably be down to 6k cases per day
By 12 April it may be more like 3k cases
By 17 May it may be even less, we should have about 45m people vaccinated by then

The could unlock everything now if they wanted infection to go through the public, and it wouldn't kill many (comparatively). The problem is the hospital bed numbers are still high, and they need them cleared out.
 
My main problem with what was announced is the same failure to help people do the right thing and isolate themselves when suffering with Covid symptoms.

Many in this country have suffered the greatest financial hardship they probably will in their lifetime through no fault of their own and have been forced to continue working and not mention Covid symptoms.

Lockdown costs us vastly more than covering 2 weeks wages to ensure people do the right thing.
 
Andy_W said:
Infection and death won't move in the same direction, down to the vaccine, most realise this (or should realise this, it's been the point for year).

But I disagree with your interpretation of this, with what they're doing now, with a slow lifting, is they're trying to get the vaccine to outpace the spread. For every restriction they lift, they will have had another 10m vaccinated.

By 8th March we will probably be down to 6k cases per day
By 12 April it may be more like 3k cases
By 17 May it may be even less, we should have about 45m people vaccinated by then

The could unlock everything now if they wanted infection to go through the public, and it wouldn't kill many (comparatively). The problem is the hospital bed numbers are still high, and they need them cleared out.
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I agree with you. My point about letting the virus run, relates to schools mostly and the lack of vaccinating teachers that dont fall into the high risk categories.

As to the rest of the population, this is a political response which doesnt want to risk moving back to lockdown again. There is a risk that the new strains of the virus could become more prevalent which would create a problem. So you are correct to err on the side of caution.
 
Least they got rid of the behavioural science curfews and ordering food with drink 🤣

Gives us a fighting chance at least. Sunak needs to announce financial support before his budget in March though, lots of businesses left in limbo. He also needs to pause the employer tax and national insurance contributions whilst businesses are forced shut for the rest of the year.
 
Andy_W said:
The could unlock everything now if they wanted infection to go through the public, and it wouldn't kill many (comparatively). The problem is the hospital bed numbers are still high, and they need them cleared out.
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They are also concerned about virus mutation, if we were to get a mutation that could dodge the vaccine we would be back to square one. It might happen anyway so we are just playing the numbers.

For what it's worth I think it is a reasonable timetable. With the caveat that if infections/hospitalisations start to rise they need to act quickly to supress it.
 
Muttley said:
They are also concerned about virus mutation, if we were to get a mutation that could dodge the vaccine we would be back to square one. It might happen anyway so we are just playing the numbers.

For what it's worth I think it is a reasonable timetable. With the caveat that if infections/hospitalisations start to rise they need to act quickly to supress it.
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And the virus has got the whole world to mutate in.
 
Muttley said:
They are also concerned about virus mutation, if we were to get a mutation that could dodge the vaccine we would be back to square one. It might happen anyway so we are just playing the numbers.

For what it's worth I think it is a reasonable timetable. With the caveat that if infections/hospitalisations start to rise they need to act quickly to supress it.
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I think they're saying they're concerned about mutation, whereas in reality, I think it's mostly talk, as that can only be a "cross that bridge when it comes" kind of scenario.

This virus will be around for a few years yet, maybe even forever, I don't think there would be enough appetite for lockdowns to protect from strains that don't yet exist (or haven't been found). Plus, there's a ton of other countries in the world that would no way operate that way, so we would get dragged down by them regardless.

I think some aspects of it are slow, but wasn't expecting the full lift on the 21st June, so on balance, it seems ok, one of their better decisions on balance I think.

It seems like they're trying to get it as low as they reasonably can, and then pulling the pin out from there. Rather than de-restricting earlier, but being a bit more cautious through summer.
 
I think at some point they need to stop publishing the daily infection numbers, especially if the hospitalisations and deaths are going down.
Too many people are sat clicking the refresh button at 4pm everyday and it's took over their life.

Me being one of them.
 
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