3 more players
- Thread starter Nero
- Start date
Defender 4x4
Well-known member
Cannot see us getting 3 quality players in by Friday. looks like it could be the usual panic signings on Friday morning.
You are too fixated on what we "own" versus what we don't. Like I said further up the thread we have spent more on Payero than we have on all of our loans over the last 2 years and he is worth absolutely zero now. We can't give him away. I really didn't want to get dragged into what signed players v loaned players cost as there is a lot of assumptions and basically the way football club budgets work are more complex than either me or you can explain on a messageboard but since your insistent on saying we've burned money on loans, let's just do a couple case studies for the hell of it.
Payero - We've owned him for 25 months and he's been loaned out for approximately 11 months of that time. For the purpose of this let's assume Boca covered his full wage (£25k/week). He's cost us just over £1.5mil in wages. The transfer fee was around £6mil. He will have received a signing on fee as well but let's assume he never. So he's cost us a minimum of £7.5mil to date. We can't offload him so he's going to cost us another £1.2m in wages before we offloads. That's £8.7mil we will have spent on him. That's the entire Akpom profit gone. Spent on Payero.
A £20k/week player costs us £780k in wages for a 9 month loan. We could have had 11 Cameron Archer loans for the same money we've spent on Payero.
Yes Payero is probably our most extreme example. But can run another couple examples
Hoppe
Signed - £3mil
Wages to date - approx £300k
Wages to end of contract- 900k (unknown how much of this we will cover)
Will cost between £3.3mil and £4.2mil
Matt Clarke
Signed - £2.5m
Wages to date - £670k
Wages to end of contract- £1.3m
Total cost - £4.4mil
But in the real world this isn't how it works is it. We have a wage budget for a season. We will have an amount that fits within FFP. Our "owned" players will take an amount of that budget and we will spend the rest on loaned players. It makes no difference really. That's the budget we have set to pay the wages of the squad. If we don't use loan players then we are just reducing the amount of players available to us.
If you look at it as money burned every time we aren't promoted then look at the money we've burned on the signed players above. I don't look at it that way. I look at it as the running cost of a championship club.
starplayer
Well-known member
Recruitment is the same whether its permanents or loans though. For every Payero and Hoppe we have bought there is a Muniz and Mowatt or Sporar and Connolly.
Mowatt wasn't bad to be fair. Wasn't as good as we'd hoped but wasn't terrible.
Yes I agree there's bad loans and signings and I've said that further up the thread also. The bad signings can cost 5 or 10 times what the bad loans cost though. I'm not really that interested in that though, it's Nero who is insistent in talking about the financial side.
I am bothered about how we build the best quality squad. Using loans is imperative to doing that
starplayer
Well-known member
Using quality loans will help, certainly and I dont think there will be a team in the championship that gets promoted without them. For me though, at this moment in time we need to prioritise permanent signings to add some depth to the squad. If there are any gaps left in the squad or opportunity to get a decent loan or two then utilise the loan market then. That market is going to be more competitive than buying players though so I am not sure we will be the favourites to be at the head if that market to cherry pick players that some people might want.
Isn't that what we've done though? We've signed 8 players. Mainly young talent that hopefully will become quality players. Some will work and some won't. I'm sure we are trying to build a competative squad but we don't have the funds to buy the quality we need right now. So we either use the loan market to improve the squad with quality we need to remain or competative or we don't and we will struggle. It's a proven model.
There are two factors here -
1. “Worth” / Value / Asset
2. Cash flow
In our position, without parachute payments, big fan base or major sponsorship income, we will rely on looking for players we can invest in and then - if we don’t get promoted - sell on at a profit. Chuba and Spence are good examples. Any fees are amortised over the length of contract to generate the annual accounts. Some investments won’t work out. Others will be great.
Cash flow is the biggest challenge (ie having the cash to pay wages, bills, tax, etc). Hence the reason for the demise of such a huge number of clubs over the years who invest in players and then cannot pay wages when times turn bad (Leeds, Wolves, Sheff Weds, Watford, Wigan, Reading).
I think we are managing the balance very well. I like the current strategy - much more sustainable than in recent years.
The biggest regret? We didn’t get over the line last year. Loans work but are short lived. We should use them for that final push. Had that happened we would have had a strike force worth nearly £50m (Archer, Chuba, Ramsay, Giles). That is the risk/reward investment.
This year, we need to temper our expectations. If we are in the playoff hunt by January, roll the dice and go for loans. Not before.
1. “Worth” / Value / Asset
2. Cash flow
In our position, without parachute payments, big fan base or major sponsorship income, we will rely on looking for players we can invest in and then - if we don’t get promoted - sell on at a profit. Chuba and Spence are good examples. Any fees are amortised over the length of contract to generate the annual accounts. Some investments won’t work out. Others will be great.
Cash flow is the biggest challenge (ie having the cash to pay wages, bills, tax, etc). Hence the reason for the demise of such a huge number of clubs over the years who invest in players and then cannot pay wages when times turn bad (Leeds, Wolves, Sheff Weds, Watford, Wigan, Reading).
I think we are managing the balance very well. I like the current strategy - much more sustainable than in recent years.
The biggest regret? We didn’t get over the line last year. Loans work but are short lived. We should use them for that final push. Had that happened we would have had a strike force worth nearly £50m (Archer, Chuba, Ramsay, Giles). That is the risk/reward investment.
This year, we need to temper our expectations. If we are in the playoff hunt by January, roll the dice and go for loans. Not before.
We will need loans to be in the mix though. The same as we did last season.
The January loans aside, we still had Steffen, Giles, Mowatt and Muniz on loan from the beginning of the season. If we hadn't had those players would we have been in the mix come January? I doubt it.
Muniz was a total flop but Steffan and Giles were important players and played pretty much every game. And mowatt contributed.
I still think we'll be pushing to get 3 loans in and I think it's the right strategy. We need them
Nobby_Barnes
Well-known member
Jay Rodriguez is a name I've heard as a possibility in my circles guys 
starplayer
Well-known member
The soundings from the club would indicate they want 3 more players CM, CAM and CF. I dont think there is any logic in loaning players in the will hinder the playing time of Lath and Rogers. We need a midfielder to give competition to Howson and given his age I would have thought we would be looking at a potential permanent replacement in that position. Loans might come in January is the way I see it.
Nobby_Barnes
Well-known member
Dane Scarlett a young striker from Spurs is another name I heard mentioned in dispatches guys
Glover_elbow
Well-known member
You mean an asset like brit or rudy
Glover_elbow
Well-known member
I am a bit dismayed that people are talking about rodgers as the first choice option as no10. To me he's nowhere near ready enough in fact i dont think he will ever be the standard required. To me he is a back up player for league cup games we need to recruit much better than him
Bruce
Well-known member
Rough diamonds, young prospects and no loans (aka the Brentford model) is what we tried with Woodgate and the Golden Thread. It failed miserably but that might be because we forgot we needed an experienced coaching team. Let's imagine a parallel universe where we appointed an experienced coach used to developing youngsters (let's call him Tony Mowbray) and Woodgate was his assistant.
Everything else stays the same. We buy Dijksteel, Bola and Browne.
What was our team. Mowbray prefers 4-2-3-1 but it looks like we're better set up as a 4-3-3 due to lack of a #10
Randolph / Pears
Spence / Dijksteel
Fry / Shotton / Wood
Ayala / Friend /
Bola / Coulson / (Friend)
McNair / Wing
Howson / Clayton
Tav / Saville
Browne / Fletcher /
Assombalonga / Fletcher / Gestede
Johnson / (Browne) / (Tav)
There's a couple of gaps but as events has shown there's no way that is a team that ought to be worried about relegation. It's not getting promoted any time soon.
In the winter we plug the gaps (including injury to Browne and Randolph getting bombed out plus Ayala having his winter break) with loans. We also assume that Bola and Dijksteel prosper due to decent coaching. We can also switch to Mowbray's preferred 4-2-3-1
Pears / Dejan / Meijas
Spence / Dijksteel
Fry / Shotton / Wood
Ayala / Mokoudi / Friend
Bola / Coulson
McNair / Wing / Saville
Howson / Clayton
Roberts / Nmecha
Ravel / (Tav)
Tav / Johnson
Assombalonga / Fletcher / Gestede
End of the season several leave but we are still stuck . We are probably comfortably mid-table with players who have developed together. The focus remains on adding permanents and several long-standing players leave. Sadly we can't shift Britt or Fletcher.
Incomings: Roberts (permanent if possible), Chuba (rough diamond from overseas, biggest signing), Watmore (picked from the rubbish heap),
Pears / Dejan / Meijas
Spence / Dijksteel
Fry / Wood
McNair / ???
Bola / Coulson
Wing / Saville
Howson / (Tav) / (Hackney)
Roberts / Isaiah Jones
Chuba / (Tav) / (Browne)
Watmore / Johnson
Britt / Fletcher / (Chuba)
None of the Warnock battlers turn up. Mowbray rates Pears who ought to be developing well by now. There are gaps but we're now regularly playing players who will turn out to be worth £10m+ under a manager who likes to play them (Spence, Tav, Chuba, Wood*). Dijksteel, Bola, Coulson and Browne may have actually improved under the right manager. Definitely need something extra at centre back.
When Britt and Fletcher finally push off we have a young, dynamic team that has been playing together for 2 seasons and we have some room on the wage bill for better quality signings and marque loans to get us into the promotion race.
Imagine a possible Mowbray golden thread team in January 2022 where we have bought in some final loans to try and push for the top 2
Pears, Spence, Fry, McNair, Bola, Howson, Tav, Roberts, Akpom, Watmore, Balogun
In a parallel universe you could see that team making it to the Premier league. The key being that some of the players like Bola, Spence, Coulson, Browne and Pears who went backwards when we gave up on the golden thread and panicked developed into Championship or better players for us.
Everything else stays the same. We buy Dijksteel, Bola and Browne.
What was our team. Mowbray prefers 4-2-3-1 but it looks like we're better set up as a 4-3-3 due to lack of a #10
Randolph / Pears
Spence / Dijksteel
Fry / Shotton / Wood
Ayala / Friend /
Bola / Coulson / (Friend)
McNair / Wing
Howson / Clayton
Tav / Saville
Browne / Fletcher /
Assombalonga / Fletcher / Gestede
Johnson / (Browne) / (Tav)
There's a couple of gaps but as events has shown there's no way that is a team that ought to be worried about relegation. It's not getting promoted any time soon.
In the winter we plug the gaps (including injury to Browne and Randolph getting bombed out plus Ayala having his winter break) with loans. We also assume that Bola and Dijksteel prosper due to decent coaching. We can also switch to Mowbray's preferred 4-2-3-1
Pears / Dejan / Meijas
Spence / Dijksteel
Fry / Shotton / Wood
Ayala / Mokoudi / Friend
Bola / Coulson
McNair / Wing / Saville
Howson / Clayton
Roberts / Nmecha
Ravel / (Tav)
Tav / Johnson
Assombalonga / Fletcher / Gestede
End of the season several leave but we are still stuck . We are probably comfortably mid-table with players who have developed together. The focus remains on adding permanents and several long-standing players leave. Sadly we can't shift Britt or Fletcher.
Incomings: Roberts (permanent if possible), Chuba (rough diamond from overseas, biggest signing), Watmore (picked from the rubbish heap),
Pears / Dejan / Meijas
Spence / Dijksteel
Fry / Wood
McNair / ???
Bola / Coulson
Wing / Saville
Howson / (Tav) / (Hackney)
Roberts / Isaiah Jones
Chuba / (Tav) / (Browne)
Watmore / Johnson
Britt / Fletcher / (Chuba)
None of the Warnock battlers turn up. Mowbray rates Pears who ought to be developing well by now. There are gaps but we're now regularly playing players who will turn out to be worth £10m+ under a manager who likes to play them (Spence, Tav, Chuba, Wood*). Dijksteel, Bola, Coulson and Browne may have actually improved under the right manager. Definitely need something extra at centre back.
When Britt and Fletcher finally push off we have a young, dynamic team that has been playing together for 2 seasons and we have some room on the wage bill for better quality signings and marque loans to get us into the promotion race.
Imagine a possible Mowbray golden thread team in January 2022 where we have bought in some final loans to try and push for the top 2
Pears, Spence, Fry, McNair, Bola, Howson, Tav, Roberts, Akpom, Watmore, Balogun
In a parallel universe you could see that team making it to the Premier league. The key being that some of the players like Bola, Spence, Coulson, Browne and Pears who went backwards when we gave up on the golden thread and panicked developed into Championship or better players for us.
indeedido
Well-known member
And that is the point.
It is all about judgement and getting the best quality you can for the budget you are willing to make available.
Quality costs a lot of money - you simply can't afford to buy all you need to get out of this league.
It is nonsense to think you will scour the world picking up a squad of players that other expensively resourced clubs have passed over and then assemble them in a jolly squad that you keep together, develop to greatness and then sell for tens of millions.
Let's just get out of this league in an upwards direction asap.
Hoppe cost £2.7m over 4 years, which is £675k every year of his contract, plus his wages. He has no value at present, but continues to cost us money.
Clarke similar.
The players bought in the last couple of years are not hugely valuable assets, they are not in real demand, if they were then they would have been sold. They are still here costing in terms of wage and amortisation.
The loan players brought in in the last couple of years are a mixed bag. Of course they cost money in terms of loan fees/wages, but they go back, they are not an ongoing liability.
Players like Hoppe, Clarke, Payero are technically assets, but their outstanding fees and wages are also liabilities.
Despite what Nano said above the successful clubs 11/18 promotions in the last 6 years all had an awful lot of appearances from loanees. Their loans were good ones who complimented good players they had in their squads.
That is all some of us are advocating here: the right mix of owned and loanees that provide the quality we are prepared to fund.
2022-23 Burnley 131 appearances from 6 loanees, inc 39 each from Maatsen and Tella and 32 from Harwood Belles.
2022-23 Sheff U 108 appearances from 4 loanees, inc McAtee 43 and Doyle 38.
2021-22 Forest 161 appearances from 6 loanees, inc Zinck 42, Garner 41, Spence 39.
2020-21 Norwich 97 appearances from 4 loanees, inc Skipp 44, Gibson 26.
2019-20 Leeds 166 appearances from 7 loanees, inc Harrison 46, White 46, Costa 43
2019-20 West Brom 128 appearances from 5 loanees, inc Pereira 42, Krovinovic 40, Diangana 30
2019-20 Fulham 180 appearances from 6 loanees, inc Cavaleiro 43, Knockhaert 42, Reid 41, Arter 28, Reed 25.
2018-19 Sheff Utd 147 appearances from 7 loanees, inc Henderson 46, Norwood 43
2018-19 Aston Villa 142 appearances from 8 loanees, inc Abraham 37, El Ghazi 31, Tuanzebe 25, Bolasie 21
2017-18 Wolves 181 appearances from 6 loanees, inc Jota 44, Bonatini 43, Boly 36, N;Diasye 33.
2017-18 Fulham 156 appearances from 8 loanees, inc Norwood 36, Kalas 33, Piazon 24, Ojo 22, Targett 18, Mitrovic 17.
4 of the last 6 Champions, 3 of the last 6 Runners Up and 4 of the last 6 play off winners have massively used loans AND recruited quality.
GibbosEmpire
Well-known member
Love to know how you've made that judgement on only a few games. The lad clearly is talented, he makes things happen, with the right coaching I think he'll do well, well at least I'm gonna give him a chance to do well.
