Wow. Latest Hartlepool polling...

jam69 said:
They did, without the brexit party a big chunk of those votes would have went to the brexit party.
Take a look at those sears where the brexit party didn't stand, they turned blue
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TeaCider said:
Disagree.

The Conservatives actually got fewer votes in 2019 than 2017 because of the presence of the Brexit Party
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The numbers don't add up though.

Firstly, the BXP and Tories will have crunched their own numbers and spent a large chunk of cash working out where BXP standing was worthwhile. I think their politics is appalling but they are usually reasonably astute at the electioneering.

Secondly, the Conservatives got a smaller fraction of fewer votes than Labour did. BXP reduced the gap between Con and Lab by about 3000 overall.

The BXP benefited the Tories in Hartlepool in 2019.
 
norfolkngood said:
For all the fuss, it's basically becoming quite obvious that most of you living up there are just a pack of fcuking idiots.

Whatever side of the Labour party you are supporting, the fact that people in the north east are prepared to vote for Alexander Johnson and his corrupt colleagues just prove that you are either fcuking idiots who do not think about what you are doing or, a bunch of xenophobes who want to reward Alexander for getting rid of Johnny foreigner.

Whichever it is one day you'll get your reward.
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Unfortunately, in my opinion, it’s all about Jonny Foreigner.

And it’s beyond Brexit now with the common reference by the racists to Kneeler Starmer and accusations that Labour are only being interested in London and other big cities with high ethnic population.

You have seen the branding of Labour as the party of the immigrants amongst the white working class of the north. And it’s all their fault that a lot of people in the north have nothing.

This underlying attitude has been brewing for years, Farage identified it and Johnson has exploited it.
 
Blimey Col I know I said I enjoy our debates but there was no need to write a dissertation! 😜

coluka said:
Many people don’t like change unless they can envisage their lives will be improved and at worst stay on an even keel.
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I agree with a lot of what you say but I think this is where we diverge. Maybe it's something that used to be true once but I just don't see evidence for it in our recent past.

To me, the country voted for Thatcher as a big change to post war consensus politics. Then Blair as a big change to not just the tory gov but also to old Labour. Then Cameron as a change to the last few tory leaders and a big change to public spending. Then for the Brexit referendum as a chance for constitutional change. And then most recently Boris who you have to admit is very unlike May and Cameron.

Its a bit like the boro I suppose. Gibbo tends to give managers time so long as we don't seem to be completely imploding, so people could observe and say we're a fairly steady, balanced, risk averse club. But then equally you can look at how we go from experienced managers to rookies in their first job, from route 1 football to (managers claiming that they'll play) attacking tiki taka, from spending £20+m on forwards some summers and half a million on a couple of league 1 full backs other summers and you could say actually we're all over the place and seem to just randomly embrace change for changes sake on a regular basis.
 
SuperStu said:
To me, the country voted for Thatcher as a big change to post war consensus politics. Then Blair as a big change to not just the tory gov but also to old Labour. Then Cameron as a change to the last few tory leaders and a big change to public spending. Then for the Brexit referendum as a chance for constitutional change. And then most recently Boris who you have to admit is very unlike May and Cameron.
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I think it's a lot simpler than this. People are easily led. Wherever the media point, that's where they go. The bigger newspaper players are still massively dominant despite the social media age. Especially Murdoch.

You just have to look at the utter stupidity in some of the Covid denial to realise it must be orchestrated. Much like the US Qanon stuff. It is framed as a whole load of people independently arriving at similar conclusions from exhaustive research, but when you scratch the surface it all originates from the same one or two dubious sources.

The only positive you can take from it is that Johnson's fall from grace will likely be a lot more spectacular than anything we've seen before. And he won't go quietly.
 
BoroMart said:
Well that's supposition and is basically the old argument "yes but labour would be worse". It's a tired old trope. Facts are the tories are in power, have been for a decade, failed to hold the banking sector accountable for crashing teh economy and costing people jobs, presided over a decade of running down public services, destroying local councils, shredding police and nhs budgets and staff, split the British psyche with a divisive referendum that will keep the public fractured for many decades, presided over the worst death toll in europe and one of the worst in the world during the pandemic, seen a huge increase in racism and hate crimes, helped the 1% gain even further advantages over the rest, allowed russian operatives to use chemical weapons in our country then talked about being friends with them, spaffed billions of our money on corrupt PPE contracts to friends and family.....I mean we have actual evidence that this government is not a realistic option.
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We'll find out if it is supposition later. If Labour do badly at the polls it can only be because nobody knows what their policies are, since - as you say - the Tory record is patchy. There's no Brexit distraction for Labour now, and there's a Tory government with very little to defend itself with against charges of sleaze and mismanaging Covid. It's the electoral equivalent of kicking downhill with the wind.

But Labour will lose seats, and they need to wake up to the reality that elections are not won by saying what you wouldn't do. Playing politics is ok in Parliament but at the election box you need to find voters and sell them your policies. Keir Starmer hasn't clocked this yet.
 
Soutra said:
We'll find out if it is supposition later. If Labour do badly at the polls it can only be because nobody knows what their policies are, since - as you say - the Tory record is patchy. There's no Brexit distraction for Labour now, and there's a Tory government with very little to defend itself with against charges of sleaze and mismanaging Covid. It's the electoral equivalent of kicking downhill with the wind.

But Labour will lose seats, and they need to wake up to the reality that elections are not won by saying what you wouldn't do. Playing politics is ok in Parliament but at the election box you need to find voters and sell them your policies. Keir Starmer hasn't clocked this yet.
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What are Tory policies?
 
Soutra said:
We'll find out if it is supposition later. If Labour do badly at the polls it can only be because nobody knows what their policies are, since - as you say - the Tory record is patchy. There's no Brexit distraction for Labour now, and there's a Tory government with very little to defend itself with against charges of sleaze and mismanaging Covid. It's the electoral equivalent of kicking downhill with the wind.

But Labour will lose seats, and they need to wake up to the reality that elections are not won by saying what you wouldn't do. Playing politics is ok in Parliament but at the election box you need to find voters and sell them your policies. Keir Starmer hasn't clocked this yet.
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So people essentially being paid by the government to not work for a year, taking full credit for the vaccine rollout and *allowing* people to go have a pint again are doing nothing for the Tories?

Yep the only reason is because Labour haven't published a manifesto for council elections during a pandemic.
 
Scrote said:
The numbers don't add up though.

Firstly, the BXP and Tories will have crunched their own numbers and spent a large chunk of cash working out where BXP standing was worthwhile. I think their politics is appalling but they are usually reasonably astute at the electioneering.

Secondly, the Conservatives got a smaller fraction of fewer votes than Labour did. BXP reduced the gap between Con and Lab by about 3000 overall.

The BXP benefited the Tories in Hartlepool in 2019.
Click to expand...

In 2017 Corbyn held it comfortably and increased the vote share on the platform to honour the referendum.

In 2019 the Brexit Party gained an extra 6,000 votes on UKIP's 2017 performance, when Labour were proposing a second referendum.
 
Chris_Boro said:
So people essentially being paid by the government to not work for a year, taking full credit for the vaccine rollout and *allowing* people to go have a pint again are doing nothing for the Tories?

Yep the only reason is because Labour haven't published a manifesto for council elections during a pandemic.
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If Labour were about to lose a seat they have always held under Corbyn following the deaths of 128,000 citizens you would not be making these excuses.

People in Hartlepool see Houchen and the nationalisation of the airport, the free port, business being attracted to the area and understandably want a slice of it.

What are Labour offering as an alternative?
 
InglebyUTB said:
If Labour were about to lose a seat they have always held under Corbyn following the deaths of 128,000 citizens you would not be making these excuses.

People in Hartlepool see Houchen and the nationalisation of the airport, the free port, business being attracted to the area and understandably want a slice of it.

What are Labour offering as an alternative?
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Jam today rather than (no) jam tomorrow.
 
Scrote said:
I think it's a lot simpler than this. People are easily led. Wherever the media point, that's where they go. The bigger newspaper players are still massively dominant despite the social media age. Especially Murdoch.

You just have to look at the utter stupidity in some of the Covid denial to realise it must be orchestrated. Much like the US Qanon stuff. It is framed as a whole load of people independently arriving at similar conclusions from exhaustive research, but when you scratch the surface it all originates from the same one or two dubious sources.

The only positive you can take from it is that Johnson's fall from grace will likely be a lot more spectacular than anything we've seen before. And he won't go quietly.
Click to expand...
Yes when it comes it will be like Trump’s fall.
 
There is all this talk of red wall shifts and north/south split. There was always a rural/urban split.

Actually, the real split is young v old. That is the elephant in the room.

if you are young and working, you’re voting Remain and Labour (or LD, Green, SNP etc).

If you are old and retired, or coming up to retirement, you voted Tory and Brexit. Generally.

Think about this. It is hugely important. What it means is the people who are taking the decisions about the economic future of the country are not the ones who have to live with those consequences. They are insulated from the effects of Brexit. Brexit affects business. They are retired, they don’t have to deal with it

In effect, they reaped the benefits of socialist help on pensions, education, health, got wealthy and have pulled up the ladder behind them while dictating the working hours, tuition fees and remuneration of the people working hard to keep them in a manner they are accustomed to. They ignore their wishes, for Remain, for more socialist polices. They are the big boss, retired in their mansion, making their servants tug their forelock and do what they are told for a few scraps. They are waging war* on the working class. How can Labour wage war back on parents and grandparents? Not look after them? Make them pay more in tax? Take away pensions? Pay more for social care? Not visit the greedy gets as much because of the long hours every worker is having to put in? Well, to do the tax, pensions and social care stuff you need to be in government and the Conservatives are unlikely to do this kind of evening up against their base.

The greatest generation put their kids first. And created a generation of people who believed therefore that this world is for them because that’s what their parents sacrifices must mean. Spoilt, entitled, greedy brats, wrapped in a flag, who ushered in Thatcherism and are now firmly in charge.

The language I use might be deliberately provocative and does not apply on an individual basis, but on a collective basis, tell me I’m wrong?

*not literally of course.
 
Lefty said:
There is all this talk of red wall shifts and north/south split. There was always a rural/urban split.

Actually, the real split is young v old. That is the elephant in the room.

if you are young and working, you’re voting Remain and Labour (or LD, Green, SNP etc).

If you are old and retired, or coming up to retirement, you voted Tory and Brexit. Generally.

Think about this. It is hugely important. What it means is the people who are taking the decisions about the economic future of the country are not the ones who have to live with those consequences. They are insulated from the effects of Brexit. Brexit affects business. They are retired, they don’t have to deal with it

In effect, they reaped the benefits of socialist help on pensions, education, health, got wealthy and have pulled up the ladder behind them while dictating the working hours, tuition fees and remuneration of the people working hard to keep them in a manner they are accustomed to. They ignore their wishes, for Remain, for more socialist polices. They are the big boss, retired in their mansion, making their servants tug their forelock and do what they are told for a few scraps. They are waging war* on the working class. How can Labour wage war back on parents and grandparents? Not look after them? Make them pay more in tax? Take away pensions? Pay more for social care? Not visit the greedy gets as much because of the long hours every worker is having to put in? Well, to do the tax, pensions and social care stuff you need to be in government and the Conservatives are unlikely to do this kind of evening up against their base.

The greatest generation put their kids first. And created a generation of people who believed therefore that this world is for them because that’s what their parents sacrifices must mean. Spoilt, entitled, greedy brats, wrapped in a flag, who ushered in Thatcherism and are now firmly in charge.

The language I use might be deliberately provocative and does not apply on an individual basis, but on a collective basis, tell me I’m wrong?

*not literally of course.
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The young vote vs old vote again.

The under 25’s vote vs over 65’s vote pretty much cancelled each other out in percentages

the 25 to 64 vote ( the majority of the working ages) was 47% remain vs 53% leave

I’d say that was pretty even... just like the overall percentage
 
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