YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

Chris_Boro said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628359167650979840
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Tories less than the other parties combined (other than Labour) is good to see.

Even with reform it's only 29%, and if they start to side with reform they will lose votes the other end.

I could see reform hoovering up a few more of the Tory votes and the Tories softening up a bit, moving more towards the centre. This might take a few from Labour, but it's better than the Tories being stuck as far right as they have been.
 
Their only chance really is voter suppression now. Which they are pursuing with enthusiasm of course.

I'm sure this will definitely alienate all the leave voters who "lent their vote" to Boris partly on the grounds of "protecting democracy" though. 🙄
 
Andy_W said:
Tories less than the other parties combined (other than Labour) is good to see.

Even with reform it's only 29%, and if they start to side with reform they will lose votes the other end.

I could see reform hoovering up a few more of the Tory votes and the Tories softening up a bit, moving more towards the centre. This might take a few from Labour, but it's better than the Tories being stuck as far right as they have been.
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I can't see how the tories can move towards the centre anytime soon, if ever, unless they do actually split fully into 'one nation' and RWNJ full-on racist/nationalist parties. They have gone so far into xenophobic authoritarianism and corruption they cannot regain respectability and stay in one piece.
 
ThePrisoner said:
I can't see how the tories can move towards the centre anytime soon, if ever, unless they do actually split fully into 'one nation' and RWNJ full-on racist/nationalist parties. They have gone so far into xenophobic authoritarianism and corruption they cannot regain respectability and stay in one piece.
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Yeah, I sort of think the same thing, they would need to oust quite a few of their RWNJ MP's who seem to have a lot of influence, and I don't see how that would happen before the next election.

They would surely be having conversations about how to turn this tide around, and someone must be saying (or at least thinking), "Well, half of you need to do one, as if you stay and keep us on this course then we're screwed". There aren't any more votes on the right to win, other than the 100% nutcases voting with reform, but if they pushed that direction still, then the Tories would snap in half.
 
festa5 said:
Their only chance really is voter suppression now. Which they are pursuing with enthusiasm of course.

I'm sure this will definitely alienate all the leave voters who "lent their vote" to Boris partly on the grounds of "protecting democracy" though. 🙄
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You mean by the voter i.d thing? Can still vote by post though, can't you, even if you don't have i.d?

Allowing old people to use an oyster card, and not young people is ageist though, and other crap like that.

Suppression won't do anywhere near the damage they think it will, like with the i.d, it will deter the conspiracy theorists and unicorn believers who think they're being tracked everywhere, and my bet is most of those are RWNJ's.

Then there's the fact that people are so mad with the Tories, that I expect turnout against them will be massive, yet their turnout might be low, but we'll see.
 
Andy_W said:
You mean by the voter i.d thing? Can still vote by post though, can't you, even if you don't have i.d?

Allowing old people to use an oyster card, and not young people is ageist though, and other crap like that.

Suppression won't do anywhere near the damage they think it will, like with the i.d, it will deter the conspiracy theorists and unicorn believers who think they're being tracked everywhere, and my bet is most of those are RWNJ's.

Then there's the fact that people are so mad with the Tories, that I expect turnout against them will be massive, yet their turnout might be low, but we'll see.
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I got a letter from the Lib Dems a few weeks ago with an application form for postal voting along with a letter about voter suppression, so fair play to them.

I'll be voting in person though. I'm hoping there is a tory exit poler outside the voting station. I will ask them for ID then call the police on them as they won't have the correct ID for my requirements :sneaky:
 
ThePrisoner said:
I got a letter from the Lib Dems a few weeks ago with an application form for postal voting along with a letter about voter suppression, so fair play to them.

I'll be voting in person though. I'm hoping there is a tory exit poler outside the voting station. I will ask them for ID then call the police on them as they won't have the correct ID for my requirements :sneaky:
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I got a vote confirmation letter about a week ago from the electoral commission, could send the form back to change it to a postal vote.

Our lass does postal vote, and I filled the form in to change mine over to postal, but I put today's date in the box which was meant to be for my birthday, and had no way of correcting it, so looks like I'm going in person :LOL:
 
Andy_W said:
You mean by the voter i.d thing? Can still vote by post though, can't you, even if you don't have i.d?

Allowing old people to use an oyster card, and not young people is ageist though, and other crap like that.

Suppression won't do anywhere near the damage they think it will, like with the i.d, it will deter the conspiracy theorists and unicorn believers who think they're being tracked everywhere, and my bet is most of those are RWNJ's.

Then there's the fact that people are so mad with the Tories, that I expect turnout against them will be massive, yet their turnout might be low, but we'll see.
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Aye, I don't think it'll be enough by some way.

Their real issue is the cost of living crisis. People can kid themselves about a lot of stuff about the Tories, but there's no getting away from it when they start to directly be affected and see the government do naff all other than imply we all need to tighten our bents while at the same time backing a minister to the hilt for "accidentally" not paying tens of millions in tax.

The Tories have no answer to it. Partly because they're ideologically opposed to taxing big business and government intervention, even if people are starving.

But also because most of them are so detached from reality they're incapable of grasping the real impact it's having on people. £1k a year extra to heat the old stables is "chickenfeed" (to quote Boris) for them.

Half of them don't really believe people are suffering. The half that do know it, such as a lot of the "red wall" MPs, tend to be poor examples of humanity who simply don't give a **** anyway.

The only thing that might prompt them to take action is if they think it might give them a chance of staying in power. But I think they genuinely think people are exaggerating and it's not that big an issue, so they'll continue to do nothing and hope their pathetic dog whistling and culture wars is what people care more about still.
 
festa5 said:
Aye, I don't think it'll be enough by some way.

Their real issue is the cost of living crisis. People can kid themselves about a lot of stuff about the Tories, but there's no getting away from it when they start to directly be affected and see the government do naff all other than imply we all need to tighten our bents while at the same time backing a minister to the hilt for "accidentally" not paying tens of millions in tax.

The Tories have no answer to it. Partly because they're ideologically opposed to taxing big business and government intervention, even if people are starving.

But also because most of them are so detached from reality they're incapable of grasping the real impact it's having on people. £1k a year extra to heat the old stables is "chickenfeed" (to quote Boris) for them.

Half of them don't really believe people are suffering. The half that do know it, such as a lot of the "red wall" MPs, tend to be poor examples of humanity who simply don't give a **** anyway.

The only thing that might prompt them to take action is if they think it might give them a chance of staying in power. But I think they genuinely think people are exaggerating and it's not that big an issue, so they'll continue to do nothing and hope their pathetic dog whistling and culture wars is what people care more about still.
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Yes nail on the head they will use a culture war and an anti woke agenda to shore up their vote and the over 65s will turn out for them again. Can’t see them winning though, the country is too much of a shambles.
 
festa5 said:
Aye, I don't think it'll be enough by some way.

Their real issue is the cost of living crisis. People can kid themselves about a lot of stuff about the Tories, but there's no getting away from it when they start to directly be affected and see the government do naff all other than imply we all need to tighten our bents while at the same time backing a minister to the hilt for "accidentally" not paying tens of millions in tax.

The Tories have no answer to it. Partly because they're ideologically opposed to taxing big business and government intervention, even if people are starving.

But also because most of them are so detached from reality they're incapable of grasping the real impact it's having on people. £1k a year extra to heat the old stables is "chickenfeed" (to quote Boris) for them.

Half of them don't really believe people are suffering. The half that do know it, such as a lot of the "red wall" MPs, tend to be poor examples of humanity who simply don't give a **** anyway.

The only thing that might prompt them to take action is if they think it might give them a chance of staying in power. But I think they genuinely think people are exaggerating and it's not that big an issue, so they'll continue to do nothing and hope their pathetic dog whistling and culture wars is what people care more about still.
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Sure, some people think they're more well off than they actually are, doesn't take much to swallow every penny of someone's disposable income.

A lot of people are selfish, no doubt about that, their hate and ideology ranks quite high, but their pocket ranks higher. The hate and ideology will not go away, but they should have zero doubt that their pocket is being largely hurt by the tories.

It's worse for the plastic tories, those earning less than 100k, and even more so those less than 50k or 30k etc, who get terrible value voting tory. The tories conned quite a few back in the day, that if you were earning more than the average, say over around 30k, then the tories would be good value. I sort of fell into this trap myself once, but it didn't take long to come back, I was more conned by the tory press pinning the recession on Labour. I wasn't that interested in the news or politic back then, it's easy to be led astray in that instance, especially when younger.

You're right that some might think the issues are exaggerated, but to me this just reminds me of the frog in a pan of water, which is gradually been heated up. The pan is nearly 50 degrees and there are a few still in there, thinking "this is fine".

1677148939072.png
 
HolgateCorner said:
Yes nail on the head they will use a culture war and an anti woke agenda to shore up their vote and the over 65s will turn out for them again. Can’t see them winning though, the country is too much of a shambles.
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Yeah, the "anti-woke" won't work, when the "anti woke" is pretty much meant to be Labour voters in this case, who are also likely to be their kids, and grandkids etc.

Surely people talk about who they're voting for, or they can guess who their family vote for? Most of the time that would be aligned I expect, but when it isn't they can surely see the reasons why?

Even if they're not saying who they're voting for, surely the kids and grandkids are talking a lot about how they're struggling or skint etc, and what the reasons for that are?

Not sure why someone who would actively vote against what the younger folk want, who are those facing the largest impact of everything. I can't see a reason why I'd vote in a selfish way when I was >65, unless there was a live or die scenario going on.
 
BoroFur said:
You're right about the Tory culture war approach.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625045105613672448
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A culture war will only dig the Tory hole deeper, it won't be enough to get in power, and then once people realise they're better off, or better supported under labour, it will end up one hell of an even deeper hole to climb out of, for the Tories.

They're just not learning, that being against the people is not going to work, not when they need the people to vote them in.
 
Andy_W said:
Not sure why someone who would actively vote against what the younger folk want, who are those facing the largest impact of everything. I can't see a reason why I'd vote in a selfish way when I was >65, unless there was a live or die scenario going on.
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That's exactly what the culture wars are for though. Convincing people that there's an existential threat against their very way of life.

If it's not illegal immigrants it's changing words in a book you'll never read.

People are remarkably stupid when it comes to weighing up risk in anything other than direct view (c.f. global warming).

The biggest problem facing the "anyone but the Tories" brigade is that they're desperate not to pin their colours to any particular mast. This is giving the Tories a massive boost which will see the above poll margins decrease as we approach the next election (in my opinion).

The Ukraine war is being used as a reason for the current fruit & veg shortages despite evidence showing shelves across the rest of Europe overflowing. The Tories know no shame and will happily pivot to being pro-EU and using the media to explain why it's a short term necessity. At that point where do Labour go?

The whole Trans debate is being cynically used to give Tories more ammo in the culture wars - "Starmer can't define a woman".

I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.
 
Andy_W said:
Yeah, the "anti-woke" won't work, when the "anti woke" is pretty much meant to be Labour voters in this case, who are also likely to be their kids, and grandkids etc.

Surely people talk about who they're voting for, or they can guess who their family vote for? Most of the time that would be aligned I expect, but when it isn't they can surely see the reasons why?

Even if they're not saying who they're voting for, surely the kids and grandkids are talking a lot about how they're struggling or skint etc, and what the reasons for that are?

Not sure why someone who would actively vote against what the younger folk want, who are those facing the largest impact of everything. I can't see a reason why I'd vote in a selfish way when I was >65, unless there was a live or die scenario going on.
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I think there is a bit of an attitude problem with a good portion of the over 65s who lived their working lives through much more certain and affordable times with less pressure at work, lower house prices, a strong health system, no social media nonsense and a smaller wealth gap. It’s a completely different world for younger people.
 
Scrote said:
That's exactly what the culture wars are for though. Convincing people that there's an existential threat against their very way of life.

If it's not illegal immigrants it's changing words in a book you'll never read.

People are remarkably stupid when it comes to weighing up risk in anything other than direct view (c.f. global warming).

The biggest problem facing the "anyone but the Tories" brigade is that they're desperate not to pin their colours to any particular mast. This is giving the Tories a massive boost which will see the above poll margins decrease as we approach the next election (in my opinion).

The Ukraine war is being used as a reason for the current fruit & veg shortages despite evidence showing shelves across the rest of Europe overflowing. The Tories know no shame and will happily pivot to being pro-EU and using the media to explain why it's a short term necessity. At that point where do Labour go?

The whole Trans debate is being cynically used to give Tories more ammo in the culture wars - "Starmer can't define a woman".

I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.
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Yeah, I get what the idea of it is, but it reminds me of the below, except the guy on the right is grandad, and the one on the left is his kids/ grandkids.

1677180765879.png

They might say "Things under *insert any other party* would be awful", but anyone else can say "You've been charge for 15 years mate, and it's got no better, it's actually got much worse".

What can they say any other party would be crap at, that they haven't destroyed themselves?

They do try and balme failures on things which are not the real problem, you're very right with your Ukraine example, but people surely enough people aren't daft enough to miss that the EU, or anywhere else doesn't have the same problems we do, or certainly not to the same magnitude. Sure, some will fall for it, as people are daft, but they're not that daft. Maybe once bitten, twice shy, for those who voted against Labour or Remain, despite being fairly happy prior? Loads probably feel absolutely gutted that they voted Tory/ Brexit etc, most won't admit it, but most of those who switched sides probably will (or at least vote that way).

The trans thing, and anti-semitism etc, the sticks that tories are trying to use agaisnt Labour won't work, as there's zero proof that they would do any better, it would be the opposite. Same with them saying they support Ukraine, but so would Labour as they have a heart. Labour would also be coming down harder on the russians, and those profiteering also.

It's going to be closer than the below, but I think Labour will get more than the Tories got last time, and the Tories will get less than Labour did. Somewhere around 400-200 is my bet.
1677181531857.png
 
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