YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

Scrote said:
That's exactly what the culture wars are for though. Convincing people that there's an existential threat against their very way of life.

If it's not illegal immigrants it's changing words in a book you'll never read.

People are remarkably stupid when it comes to weighing up risk in anything other than direct view (c.f. global warming).

The biggest problem facing the "anyone but the Tories" brigade is that they're desperate not to pin their colours to any particular mast. This is giving the Tories a massive boost which will see the above poll margins decrease as we approach the next election (in my opinion).

The Ukraine war is being used as a reason for the current fruit & veg shortages despite evidence showing shelves across the rest of Europe overflowing. The Tories know no shame and will happily pivot to being pro-EU and using the media to explain why it's a short term necessity. At that point where do Labour go?

The whole Trans debate is being cynically used to give Tories more ammo in the culture wars - "Starmer can't define a woman".

I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.
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The Tories have always singled out groups of people and blamed them for the countries woes. Single mothers (never single fathers), eco warriors, gays, trans, immigrants. trade unions, unemployed, ill/disabled people, teachers and the latest is pensioners-anyone but themselves
 
Unless something dramatic happens which uplifts the economy or a world war halts normal proceedings I think the Tories will take a 1997 style thrashing at the next election, regardless of any culture or anti woke agenda.
 
Scrote said:
I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.
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Maybe. But there’s a moment that perhaps has happened….the tipping point. When there is no way that it can be pulled back to what is was, or anywhere near it.
It could have reached that place, the public don’t want to listen anymore. Hopefully.
 
Andy_W said:
people aren't daft enough
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People will always be daft enough. You've said yourself that you've voted Tory in the past because you didn't really pay any attention. There will still be plenty of people like that, as well as people who think they'll somehow benefit from backing the schoolyard bully. It's human nature.
 
Scrote said:
People will always be daft enough. You've said yourself that you've voted Tory in the past because you didn't really pay any attention. There will still be plenty of people like that, as well as people who think they'll somehow benefit from backing the schoolyard bully. It's human nature.
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People will be daft enough, but there's a scale to it, like I say, people are daft, but not many that daft, not for this scenario/ circumstance.

I've voted for them previously as a one-off (a much tamer version of this lot), when I was much younger and not that interested. Wasn't based on any far-right reasons really, purely economical and maybe some reasons to do with defence (which was my sector). It doesn't take much to move back the other way, I should know. I realised almost straight away, and have moved further from them ever since. How they are now is far worse than at any point I've know. I suppose being in the centre/ centre left, and having worked in two different sectors which are rammed with right-leaning people who are not earning much, I've got a fair feel of what the current mood is with swing voters.

It's quite easy to forecast which direction the middle is going, and understand reasons for boosts for Labour and Tories, and also see which boosts are papering over the cracks (canyons). I was talking about the tories getting beat in 2025 back during the vaccine rollout, where the labour left were on Starmers back for Labour being behind in the polls. They're not talking about the polls now though.

The tories need some absolutely massive good news, better than any other good new in the last 70 years. The good news would almost need to be equivalent to how bad covid, NHS, public services, strikes, the war, energy prices and inflation have been bad, it's not happening. If Labour lock in ~400 seats, then that will probably be enough for two terms, where they will have some time to do some good. The first 5 years aren't going to be pretty though, it's going to be a tall order digging out of this hole. I just hope the left don't expect everything immediately and start kicking off, as it will pull the rug before we've even started to get anywhere, and invite the Tories in for another 10-15 years. I imagine by then they will be calling themselves the "new conservatives", and be doing all they can to get away what has happened in this term.

Backing the bully can work, as a short-term tactic in a desperate scenario, or not being against him anyway. Sort of like how not causing aggro for kidnappers can work, it can help you by them letting their guard down, the military adopt similar tactics sometimes, giving up just enough to stay alive, but nothing really worthwhile, which is time sensitive. Long term it doesn't work though, and wouldn't be advisable short term if there were other options.
 
I wonder if the Tories are going to gamble on an election this year, we have had a few calls from opinion pollsters wanting to talk about the Redcar constituency and they admitted they were commissioned by the Conservative Party.

Seems a big media push on Rishi with the boats, Northern Ireland and the childcare budget.
 
HolgateCorner said:
I wonder if the Tories are going to gamble on an election this year, we have had a few calls from opinion pollsters wanting to talk about the Redcar constituency and they admitted they were commissioned by the Conservative Party.

Seems a big media push on Rishi with the boats, Northern Ireland and the childcare budget.
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I had that call the other day and was bored so went through it. It was pretty obvious it was commissioned by the Tories when the lady asked who I thought would be best placed to deliver the 18,000 new jobs and the trade benefits of the Freeport. I told her exactly what I thought (although politely as she was just doing a job).

I won't be sending my postal vote application back in the pre-paid envelope...
 
HolgateCorner said:
I wonder if the Tories are going to gamble on an election this year, we have had a few calls from opinion pollsters wanting to talk about the Redcar constituency and they admitted they were commissioned by the Conservative Party.
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Parties are polling constantly. It’s an indication when the Tories get jittery that the private polls are not good. The questions asked are much more focused than in general polling.
 
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