Wow. Latest Hartlepool polling...

NZBoro1

Well-known member
I'm sure I read somewhere, and I could be wrong, but a larger than expected number of voters just want to be on the winning team. If the press and polls have the Tories or Labour as winning, then they will vote for that 'team' as it makes them feel good about themselves to be backing a winner, regardless of policies.

Again, not sure where I read this, or even how many it effects, but its a thought.
 

newusername

Well-known member
I'm sure I read somewhere, and I could be wrong, but a larger than expected number of voters just want to be on the winning team.
I remember reading as a student analysis that showed that generally incumbents (name recognition), people at the top of the ballot & the expected winner got a statistically significant larger number of votes than expected but obviously not always enough to tip the election in their favour.
 

jam69

Well-known member
I assume you're implying that the Tories would have won had the Brexit Party not stood?

But the numbers show that the Brexit Party vote took about twice as many votes from Labour as it did from the Tories (as was the plan).
Yes that's exactly what iam suggesting.
Brexiters left labour in their droves, they would have voted tory if they wasn't a brexit option.
And it's become a cult , just read the teesside live or hartlepool mail website.
They are still harping on about brexit. Resulting in one of the vilest most corrupt governments in UK history.
Real issues don't seem to matter.
People picking a former tax exile that couldn't find hartlepool on a map over GP working on the covid frontline who actually cares
 

changingman

Well-known member
I can understand that. In general, I think we've got an electorate less "truly engaged" with politics than in previous years. If you're not embedded to support any party and view a campaign through the prism of social media it probably makes it easier to back the winner.
 

InglebyUTB

Active member
Yes that's exactly what iam suggesting.
Brexiters left labour in their droves, they would have voted tory if they wasn't a brexit option.
And it's become a cult , just read the teesside live or hartlepool mail website.
They are still harping on about brexit. Resulting in one of the vilest most corrupt governments in UK history.
Real issues don't seem to matter.
People picking a former tax exile that couldn't find hartlepool on a map over GP working on the covid frontline who actually cares
How about we stop blaming voters and look at what Labour is offering them?

People just haven't taken to Starmer for a variety of reasons. He has alienated the left of the party whilst at the same time failed to bring voters back from the Conservatives.

Why would either vote Labour? Where is his bold vision for the future?
 
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jam69

Well-known member
How about we stop blaming voters and look at what Labour is offering them?

People just haven't taken to Starmer for a variety of reasons. He has alienated the left of the party whilst at the same time failed to bring voters back from the Conservatives.

Why either back him? Where is his bold vision for the future?
The labour candidate has laid out his polices, the majority are not interested in polices, I can't even find any polices from the tory yet people in the droves are going to back her despite her lack of credentials, he backed remain 5 years ago and that's all they need to know it seems
 

TheYorkshireTerrier

Well-known member
I'm sure I read somewhere, and I could be wrong, but a larger than expected number of voters just want to be on the winning team. If the press and polls have the Tories or Labour as winning, then they will vote for that 'team' as it makes them feel good about themselves to be backing a winner, regardless of policies.

Again, not sure where I read this, or even how many it effects, but its a thought.
I can 100% believe that.

I've never been on the 'winning' side of an election and I'd be lying if I said I'd never questioned my vote because of that.
 

InglebyUTB

Active member
The labour candidate has laid out his polices, the majority are not interested in polices, I can't even find any polices from the tory yet people in the droves are going to back her despite her lack of credentials, he backed remain 5 years ago and that's all they need to know it seems
No they are Paul's pledges at a local level.

Where are Starmer's policies at a regional or national level?

£15 NHS wage? Re-nationalising Royal Mail? Plans to attract jobs and investment to Hartlepool? Big public transport investment in Hartlepool and the rest of the North-East?

According to this poll there is 10-15% there who he has lost the left, who's support for NIP would likely be soft and he could win back with a bold vision.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
How about we stop blaming voters and look at what Labour is offering them?
and what the tories are offering. However you spin it, corruption, nepotism, cronyism, lies, bluster and the clusterfook of brexit isn't ever going to beat the alternative offering from labour.

People just haven't taken to Starmer for a variety of reasons.
It's obviously exactly the same reasons as any other labour leader he has had to battle the red tops, Tory PR machine, and billionaire funded think tanks, and it's the ability to manipulate the public perception through these media that have harmed Starmer, who is clearly an intelligent, articulate, honest and decent man. The exact opposite of Johnson.

He has alienated the left of the party whilst at the same time failed to bring voters back from the Conservatives.
SImplification, yes there is labour infighting, but you could say exactly the same for the Tories. As for bringing voters back from the Tories, we simply don't know if that's true. We're still years from a GE

Why would either vote Labour? Where is his bold vision for the future?
...and if you apply that logic evenly why would they vote for this corrupt government?
 

Youngie

Active member
I remember reading as a student analysis that showed that generally incumbents (name recognition), people at the top of the ballot & the expected winner got a statistically significant larger number of votes than expected but obviously not always enough to tip the election in their favour.
The tories did this at the 2017 election in Hartlepool I think...

they got a bloke with the name A Wright so he was directly above the Labour guy I Wright
 

InglebyUTB

Active member
and what the tories are offering. However you spin it, corruption, nepotism, cronyism, lies, bluster and the clusterfook of brexit isn't ever going to beat the alternative offering from labour.


It's obviously exactly the same reasons as any other labour leader he has had to battle the red tops, Tory PR machine, and billionaire funded think tanks, and it's the ability to manipulate the public perception through these media that have harmed Starmer, who is clearly an intelligent, articulate, honest and decent man. The exact opposite of Johnson.


SImplification, yes there is labour infighting, but you could say exactly the same for the Tories. As for bringing voters back from the Tories, we simply don't know if that's true. We're still years from a GE


...and if you apply that logic evenly why would they vote for this corrupt government?
To those who aren't in the political weeds and talking about politics every day, the Tories are doing what they want them to do.

They have given them Brexit, which they voted for.

Ben Houchen is bombarding Facebook telling everyone what they want to hear - he's bringing jobs and investment to the area. That is what this area has been crying out for, and they're campaigning on it aggressively.

Like it or not, Labour need an answer to that. At the moment, they do not,
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
To those who aren't in the political weeds and talking about politics every day, the Tories are doing what they want them to do.

They have given them Brexit, which they voted for.
strangely though, you ask them what they voted for and you get word salad back 🤷‍♂️. 'political weeds', that's just another way of having no real understanding of politics and the consequences of decisions.

Ben Houchen is bombarding Facebook telling everyone what they want to hear - he's bringing jobs and investment to the area. That is what this area has been crying out for, and they're campaigning on it aggressively.
It has needed it, yet the Tories have brought a handful of jobs so far, promises of more, but we've seen Tory promises fall flat before. We all know the promised jobs will largely not happen, the tories promise one thing, and deliver something else, a la brexit.
 

jam69

Well-known member
No they are Paul's pledges at a local level.

Where are Starmer's policies at a regional or national level?

£15 NHS wage? Re-nationalising Royal Mail? Plans to attract jobs and investment to Hartlepool? Big public transport investment in Hartlepool and the rest of the North-East?

According to this poll there is 10-15% there who he has lost the left, who's support for NIP would likely be soft and he could win back with a bold vision.
You honestly think the majority of those voting tory in hartlepool instead of Labour are down to polices? Or brexit?
 

InglebyUTB

Active member
You honestly think the majority of those voting tory in hartlepool instead of Labour are down to polices? Or brexit?
Read what I just told you.

They've not just lost voters to the right, they have lost voters TO THE LEFT.

In one poll in Hartlepool, free broadband was approved by 69% of all respondents.

Better public services 67%
Nationalised Royal Mail 57%

Here is a outrageous idea, why not campaign on things that are popular and would make people's lives better?
 
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