What they are keeping from us

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Fridgeman

Active member
I will start this by saying I am no expert, I am also using statistics from various media outlets but I do believe they are credible.

No excess deaths year on year
Death rate lower this October vs October 2019
People dying from flu down 25% since January
3 million missed cancer tests this year and rising
Finally, figures given for daily deaths with covid19 rather than of covid19 why is that? One example I have just seen is a stroke victim arriving in hospital critically ill with no covid19 , died two weeks later with covid19 is this an accurate calculation of a covid death?I

I obey the rules but I do question the manipulation of data.
 
No expert here
Good genreal points tho

The flu one is highly debatable - Fact Check website, took this on after loads of stats were flying around. Their conclusion - data suggests this years flu matches 5 year average. People were comparing PHE to ONS data to get a result they wanted.
 
Fridgeman said:
I will start this by saying I am no expert, I am also using statistics from various media outlets but I do believe they are credible.

No excess deaths year on year
Death rate lower this October vs October 2019
People dying from flu down 25% since January
3 million missed cancer tests this year and rising
Finally, figures given for daily deaths with covid19 rather than of covid19 why is that? One example I have just seen is a stroke victim arriving in hospital critically ill with no covid19 , died two weeks later with covid19 is this an accurate calculation of a covid death?I

I obey the rules but I do question the manipulation of data.
Click to expand...
The ONS and daily figures are virtually the same for the last week reported. Ultimately we have to trust the death certificate. The next of kin can object to the doctor's opinion of they don't believe it's the cause of death.

The most worrying thing from the first wave was the point T_A_D often makes; cases probably peaked before lockdown. So over 98% of deaths occurred after the peak in infections. We haven't peaked in infections yet.

I thought a figure of 10,000 deaths by Christmas in this wave was pessimistic when the SAGE bods quoted it at the beginning of October. That is beginning to look as if it might be an underestimate and the wave will continue into the new year.
 
1finny said:
No expert here
Good genreal points tho

The flu one is highly debatable - Fact Check website, took this on after loads of stats were flying around. Their conclusion - data suggests this years flu matches 5 year average. People were comparing PHE to ONS data to get a result they wanted.
Click to expand...
Any links to that? I posted the ONS figures on combined flu and pneumonia from January to August yesterday.
 
In week 39 2020, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland or Wales in week 39 or for Scotland in week 37. All-cause death registrations (ONS), England and Wales In week 38 2020, an estimated 9,523 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics). This is slightly lower than the 9,811 estimated death registrations in week 37 2020. Excess all-cause (EuroMOMO) mortality in subpopulations, UK In week 39 2020 in England, no statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the upper 2 z-score threshold was seen overall or by age group. Statistically significant excess mortality was seen sub-nationally (all ages) in the North East and East Midlands regions after correcting GRO disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm (Figure 3). This data is provisional due to the time delay in registration; numbers may vary from week to week. In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland or Wales in week 39 or for Scotland in week 37.

this is from public health England, just a quick search responding to the question, its only week 39 but you can choose any week, its not what I was referring too as I can not find that but my point was are we getting manipulated data and acting on this?
 
Fridgeman said:
In week 39 2020, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland or Wales in week 39 or for Scotland in week 37. All-cause death registrations (ONS), England and Wales In week 38 2020, an estimated 9,523 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics). This is slightly lower than the 9,811 estimated death registrations in week 37 2020. Excess all-cause (EuroMOMO) mortality in subpopulations, UK In week 39 2020 in England, no statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the upper 2 z-score threshold was seen overall or by age group. Statistically significant excess mortality was seen sub-nationally (all ages) in the North East and East Midlands regions after correcting GRO disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm (Figure 3). This data is provisional due to the time delay in registration; numbers may vary from week to week. In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland or Wales in week 39 or for Scotland in week 37.

this is from public health England, just a quick search responding to the question, its only week 39 but you can choose any week, its not what I was referring too as I can not find that but my point was are we getting manipulated data and acting on this?
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Week 39 isn't October. Weeks 1 to 12 were all below the 2019 figures. Did everyone say "There's a pandemic coming, I'll wait a few weeks to die"?

Year on year to date the excess deaths are 50,000+ more than 2019.
 
I think the points about excess death rates are interesting.
Please see below the new cases and covid deaths in the UK.

What strikes me is that the numbers of deaths haven't followed the number of cases as they did during the first wave.
One possible reason for this is that the second wave of cases have been in school kids and students: young, healthy people who have not been affected too badly by it. However, if this is true, it will inevitably find its way into the older population too. The increased mortality from covid in the last week or two supports this theory.

So, my argument is that the lack of increased mortality rate in the nation does not yet mean that it is not coming.
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bear66 said:
Week 39 isn't October. Weeks 1 to 12 were all below the 2019 figures. Did everyone say "There's a pandemic coming, I'll wait a few weeks to die"?

Year on year to date the excess deaths are 50,000+ more than 2019.
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If its true that there have been 3 million missed cancer tests, and 50,000 excess deaths, whilst some of those are obviously down to covid, some of them are surely down to other things other than covid (but as a result of the measures in place to tackle covid)?
 
Can people stop posting this conspiracy rubbish on here.
Thousands have died, thousands more have been very sick and thousands more would perish if we did not respect this pandemic - and that is just in this country.
Stop posting this stuff. Go and ask someone working at your local hospital. This is very real. And sadly lots and lots of people are continuing to pay the ultimate price. Have some respect.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think the points about excess death rates are interesting.
Please see below the new cases and covid deaths in the UK.

What strikes me is that the numbers of deaths haven't followed the number of cases as they did during the first wave.
One possible reason for this is that the second wave of cases have been in school kids and students: young, healthy people who have not been affected too badly by it. However, if this is true, it will inevitably find its way into the older population too. The increased mortality from covid in the last week or two supports this theory.

So, my argument is that the lack of increased mortality rate in the nation does not yet mean that it is not coming.
View attachment 8056

View attachment 8055
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I don't agree a lot with T_A_D but he makes a fair point that cases peaked before the lockdown, so that curve isn't representative of what happened. What's most worrying about that is 98% of deaths happened AFTER peak cases!
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think the points about excess death rates are interesting.
Please see below the new cases and covid deaths in the UK.

What strikes me is that the numbers of deaths haven't followed the number of cases as they did during the first wave.
One possible reason for this is that the second wave of cases have been in school kids and students: young, healthy people who have not been affected too badly by it. However, if this is true, it will inevitably find its way into the older population too. The increased mortality from covid in the last week or two supports this theory.

So, my argument is that the lack of increased mortality rate in the nation does not yet mean that it is not coming.
View attachment 8056

View attachment 8055
Click to expand...
A difference between wave 1 and wave 2 is the amount of tests been carried out in terms of those graphs

that said hospital admissions vs deaths have decreased this time round.
 
Also a fair point Bear; I think numbers of cases were probably higher than we recognised during the first wave too. They just weren't recorded due to the lack of testing available.
 
atypical_boro said:
If its true that there have been 3 million missed cancer tests, and 50,000 excess deaths, whilst some of those are obviously down to covid, some of them are surely down to other things other than covid (but as a result of the measures in place to tackle covid)?
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The median life expectancy is 6 years after a cancer diagnosis. I don't disagree that there will have been some indirect deaths, and the ONS analysis will give a more accurate picture of that in time.
 
rob_fmttm said:
Can people stop posting this conspiracy rubbish on here.
Thousands have died, thousands more have been very sick and thousands more would perish if we did not respect this pandemic - and that is just in this country.
Stop posting this stuff. Go and ask someone working at your local hospital. This is very real. And sadly lots and lots of people are continuing to pay the ultimate price. Have some respect.
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Didn't Fridgeman get this data from the NHS England website?
 
bear66 said:
No. The October data isn't available yet. And I have no idea where he got no excess deaths year on year figure as it is nonsense.
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Fair enough. I was commenting on the 50,000 figure anyway. I'd be interested to know if the 3m cancer test figure is true though.
 
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