Vaccine level needed to supress "Coronee"

Redwurzel

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Would having 50% of the adult population vaccinated significantly suppress CV19?

Considering quite a number have been infected (approx 25% of adults based on UK deaths of 112,000).

Possibly that means over 70% of adults (who judged the major spreaders) have had it or been vaccinated.

There will also be some people with natural immunity. That doesn't leave a lot for CV19 to live on in this country. If it can't spread it can't survive for long.

If 12m have been vaccinated we have already reached almost 22% of all UK adults.
 
Every person vaccinated suppresses the virus. When to reduce lockdown is a complicated mathematical problem, let's hope our Mathematicians get it right and just as importantly that our Politicians listen to them and get the relaxation right so that we don't have to go back in.
 
Has any data been released yet to say whether anyone vaccinated in Dec/Jan has been admitted to hospital or died?

I can't seem to find any figures in respect of this - maybe they haven't quite got this data yet to publish, but if over 70s account for 85% of the deaths then surely this number is now going to significantly drop quite rapidly.
 
Certainly the trajectory for infections and deaths is very promising. I'm still struggling to understand the thinking of the 12% or more who say they won't have the vaccine. I've seen just about all the reasons given, but not one is really credible. My partner, interestingly, says sh won't have the vaccine for herself, but will do so for the greater good. As a farmer's daughter, she actually thinks she's strong enough to fight off anything...
 
Statistically, I think the desired herd immunity should be reached when between 60 and 80 percent of the population is vaccinated. That figure varies enormously between areas of low and high population mass, but more critically depends upon whether vaccine recipients can still spread the disease and of course the amount of time immunity lasts. Both these elements are as yet unknown
 
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Redwurzel said:
If 12m have been vaccinated we have already reached almost 22% of all UK adults.
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But the majority of those are only first dose vaccinated, once we get into the 60% fully vaccinated, I'd say we are starting to drive the virus back. I'm hoping that the immunity period is long enough to supress another breakout next winter.
 
Sword - the first dose is fairly effective, the second dose fine tunes.

I would say we will have 25 million vaccinated in about 30 days time add in 21 days for them to work and in 51 days the country will be likely be much safer.

I would not worry about 12% non vaccinators - the virus needs a lot of free bodies to jump to and 1 in 8 is not enough

Spanish flu could not survive after 30% of the population had had it.
 
Redwurzel said:
Sword - the first dose is fairly effective, the second dose fine tunes.

I would say we will have 25 million vaccinated in about 30 days time add in 21 days for them to work and in 51 days the country will be likely be much safer.

I would not worry about 12% non vaccinators - the virus needs a lot of free bodies to jump to and 1 in 8 is not enough

Spanish flu could not survive after 30% of the population had had it.
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Exactly.

Once 30-40% of the population are done there should be no reason why restrictions shouldn't start to be loosened off.
 
Redwurzel said:
I would say we will have 25 million vaccinated in about 30 days time add in 21 days for them to work and in 51 days the country will be likely be much safer.
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Much safer I totally agree, but that 2nd dose is all important to me, it follows the science & gives best protection. We don't yet have the numbers supporting single shot effectiveness over time.
 
BTW I'm not saying keep the brakes locked on, I think we can start to look at easing as the 1st shot numbers rise as you stated, but 2nd shot is just as critical.
 
I disagree with easing restrictions because so many have had half a jab. Once we get a load of people with the second shot then we can think about it. Sadly that's only 0.67% of the country so far
 
Redwurzel said:
Sword - the first dose is fairly effective, the second dose fine tunes.

I would say we will have 25 million vaccinated in about 30 days time add in 21 days for them to work and in 51 days the country will be likely be much safer.

I would not worry about 12% non vaccinators - the virus needs a lot of free bodies to jump to and 1 in 8 is not enough

Spanish flu could not survive after 30% of the population had had it.
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I'm not sure that the Spanish flu % can really be used as a comparison can it? Culturally the country is so different now. Also, wasn't one of the reasons for the 30% figure down to the fact that people moved around so much less, so transmission (R number) was naturally kept lower?
 
Cuthbert said:
I'm not sure that the Spanish flu % can really be used as a comparison can it? Culturally the country is so different now. Also, wasn't one of the reasons for the 30% figure down to the fact that people moved around so much less, so transmission (R number) was naturally kept lower?
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The Ro of Spanish Flu has been estimated at 1.8. That's more than typical seasonal flu at 1.3. The initial SARS2 Ro was about 5.7; the Kent variant could be as high as 9.
 
bear66 said:
The Ro of Spanish Flu has been estimated at 1.8. That's more than typical seasonal flu at 1.3. The initial SARS2 Ro was about 5.7; the Kent variant could be as high as 9.
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Good info. Thx. Interesting about Spanish flu estimated Ro. I wonder what it would have been with the amount of moving around that everyone does these days?

Given each infection has its own unique traits, I imagine the % required for herd immunity will vary quite widely?
 
Cuthbert said:
Good info. Thx. Interesting about Spanish flu estimated Ro. I wonder what it would have been with the amount of moving around that everyone does these days?

Given each infection has its own unique traits, I imagine the % required for herd immunity will vary quite widely?
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Those are Ro figures so the US states that 'locked down' did better than those that didn't. Although less infectious than SARS2, it had a much higher fatality rate (mainly bacterial pneumonia, which is different to SARS2 and seasonal flu).
 
Cuthbert said:
Good info. Thx. Interesting about Spanish flu estimated Ro. I wonder what it would have been with the amount of moving around that everyone does these days?

Given each infection has its own unique traits, I imagine the % required for herd immunity will vary quite widely?
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30% may have been all that was necessary with the lower Ro. About a month ago there was a report that herd immunity for SARS2 was about 75-85%, but that was likely to have increased to 90-95% with the Kent variant. Every major mutant strain for which vaccine or natural antibodies don't have much affect sets the 'clock' back to zero depending upon the number of changes, but, hopefully, the RNA virus doesn't change so much so severity of illness diminishes with time
 
One thing I keep wondering is-will we need herd immunity once all vulnerable groups are vaccinated and protected? I read somewhere that for a reasonably fit person under 50 the chances of dying from Covid are something like 1 in 39,000?
I’m guessing that’s it’s more complicated than I’m imagining but I genuinely wonder why it’s necessary to vaccinate people who aren’t at risk?
 
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