Trump ahead of Biden in US opinion polls

I think you underestimate how many idealogues the Republicans have in the courts, especially the supreme court. If the last 8 years has shown anything in America its that the Republicans do not give a toss about rule of law unless it suits them.

It is maybe 50/50 at best he see's a jail cell and the same if he ends up being in the presidential race.
To add some additional context to this, in the Supreme Court now you have:

1) A literal theocratic handmaiden (Amy Cohen Barett)
2) A likely rapist and man with questionable financial ties (Kavanagh)
3) A ideologue who's wife was directly involved in the Jan 6 insurrection (Thomas and his wife Ginni)

All three are loyal to Trump and two of these are happy to undo democracy to aid him in any way they can.

America is on a knife edge right now.
 
To add some additional context to this, in the Supreme Court now you have:

1) A literal theocratic handmaiden (Amy Cohen Barett)
2) A likely rapist and man with questionable financial ties (Kavanagh)
3) A ideologue who's wife was directly involved in the Jan 6 insurrection (Thomas and his wife Ginni)

All three are loyal to Trump and two of these are happy to undo democracy to aid him in any way they can.

America is on a knife edge right now.
It’s worse than that as trump all but sewed up SCOTUS.1702581489944.jpeg
 
To add some additional context to this, in the Supreme Court now you have:

1) A literal theocratic handmaiden (Amy Cohen Barett)
2) A likely rapist and man with questionable financial ties (Kavanagh)
3) A ideologue who's wife was directly involved in the Jan 6 insurrection (Thomas and his wife Ginni)

All three are loyal to Trump and two of these are happy to undo democracy to aid him in any way they can.

America is on a knife edge right now.
America is aye. I still think you are overstating it a bit to suggest that if Trump wins this country also goes overnight from one where we’re about to elect labour in a landslide, and where even the Tories are prepared to enact abortion liberalisation in the face of opposition from the Ulster nutters on both sides, to some parody of Gilead.
 
It’s worse than that as trump all but sewed up SCOTUS.View attachment 68811
Absolutely mate.

I did my thesis on post Tea Party American conservatism, this goes all the way down to circuit court judges and even local government and school boards.

The Republicans have essentially placed ideologues and activists at every level of the judiciary and federal and state government.

It stared with Nixon but really accelerated in the 80s and 90s. Koch brothers money and easily bought senators goes a long way!
 
America is aye. I still think you are overstating it a bit to suggest that if Trump wins this country also goes overnight from one where we’re about to elect labour in a landslide, and where even the Tories are prepared to enact abortion liberalisation in the face of opposition from the Ulster nutters on both sides, to some parody of Gilead.
I never said overnight, but it will have a noticeable impact as it did during Trump's last term.

The same money in US conservative politics is awash here with ours.

It's already had a big impact here on policy and discourse.
 
America is aye. I still think you are overstating it a bit to suggest that if Trump wins this country also goes overnight from one where we’re about to elect labour in a landslide, and where even the Tories are prepared to enact abortion liberalisation in the face of opposition from the Ulster nutters on both sides, to some parody of Gilead.

From this year!

Our political discourse is different and we move at different speeds but the outcomes conservative money wants on both sides of the Atlantic is the same.

Never think it can't happen here, it can happen anywhere and it's usually apathy and a belief this stuff happens elsewhere that allows it.
 
The Republicans have essentially placed ideologues and activists at every level of the judiciary and federal and state government.
Those Trump appointees have voted against him regularly since. They may be Trump sympathisers but they are judges and will act within the law, he might get marginal decisions from a "sympathetic" judge, he would not get outright abuse of the law.

Trump is looking increasing desperate, his appeals will run out, his rants are more and more incoherent, and he will have to face the consequences of his crimes and misdemeanours. In the past as a rich man he has been able to game the system by essentially appealing until his opponent ran out of money. He's up against the system here, it won't run out of money.
 
Those Trump appointees have voted against him regularly since. They may be Trump sympathisers but they are judges and will act within the law, he might get marginal decisions from a "sympathetic" judge, he would not get outright abuse of the law.

Trump is looking increasing desperate, his appeals will run out, his rants are more and more incoherent, and he will have to face the consequences of his crimes and misdemeanours. In the past as a rich man he has been able to game the system by essentially appealing until his opponent ran out of money. He's up against the system here, it won't run out of money.
I would suggest you look at their voting record a little more closely.
Roe Vs Wade was not a marginal law, the three judges I stated all claimed in their selection process that the Wade was "a settled law"
They have voted against him on minor things but when it matters they have backed him, or more precisely they have backed what the Republicans want.

I am in no way saying this is a done deal that Trump stands or wins, but there is a very real possibility he stands and as we saw with Bush he doesn't necessarily need to win to get power.

Even people like Barr (Trumps and the 1st Bush AG) are proponents of the executive power theory (essentially that the president has autocratic like powers) if not Trump the likes of Paxon and De Santis are equally as dangerous for US democracy and are bought and paid for with the same money.
 
I would suggest you look at their voting record a little more closely.
Roe Vs Wade was not a marginal law, the three judges I stated all claimed in their selection process that the Wade was "a settled law"
They have voted against him on minor things but when it matters they have backed him, or more precisely they have backed what the Republicans want.

I am in no way saying this is a done deal that Trump stands or wins, but there is a very real possibility he stands and as we saw with Bush he doesn't necessarily need to win to get power.

Even people like Barr (Trumps and the 1st Bush AG) are proponents of the executive power theory (essentially that the president has autocratic like powers) if not Trump the likes of Paxon and De Santis are equally as dangerous for US democracy and are bought and paid for with the same money.
I agree I wouldn’t like to put it to the test put it that way.
 
I agree I wouldn’t like to put it to the test put it that way.
Its scary how much western democracy is flirting with fascism/authoritarianism right now and there is whole cohorts of our society who are happy with that.

Terrifying times when you peel back the layers.
 
Kavanagh already wrote a rebuttal to presidential immunity in 1998 so it would be very hard for him to square the circle if he backed Trump's claim of immunity. The supreme court might be right wing, but any shenanigans will likely cause the expansion of the court which would dilute the right wing majority.

He said what?

You have to remember that Trump surrounded himself with toadies who will do anything, legal or otherwise, just because he says so.
In the January 6th trial he'll have all the sensible Whitehouse Counsel testimony saying they told him he'd lost and that it was only the looney lawyers who said otherwise. Those loonies have since pleaded guilty in Georgia as the reality of the law has firmly smacked them in their faces.
Trump never had "the best people" and he still surrounds himself with idiots who won't be clever enough to save him. The only tactic he has is to delay long enough to win the presidency and unfortunately he's struggling everywhere bar Miami in the stolen documents case and that is actually the most open and shut case.
I believe that the US are currently in the fog and can't see the car crash up ahead, but as they get closer to the scene then it'll become apparent what has happened and sensible Americans will apply the brakes. It'll be behoven on the Dems to get their message across and highlight the issues and not screw it up, which is always a possibility, but it shouldn't be hard to reach those who aren't outright Maga Nazis.
 
Kavanagh already wrote a rebuttal to presidential immunity in 1998 so it would be very hard for him to square the circle if he backed Trump's claim of immunity. The supreme court might be right wing, but any shenanigans will likely cause the expansion of the court which would dilute the right wing majority.

He said what?

You have to remember that Trump surrounded himself with toadies who will do anything, legal or otherwise, just because he says so.
In the January 6th trial he'll have all the sensible Whitehouse Counsel testimony saying they told him he'd lost and that it was only the looney lawyers who said otherwise. Those loonies have since pleaded guilty in Georgia as the reality of the law has firmly smacked them in their faces.
Trump never had "the best people" and he still surrounds himself with idiots who won't be clever enough to save him. The only tactic he has is to delay long enough to win the presidency and unfortunately he's struggling everywhere bar Miami in the stolen documents case and that is actually the most open and shut case.
I believe that the US are currently in the fog and can't see the car crash up ahead, but as they get closer to the scene then it'll become apparent what has happened and sensible Americans will apply the brakes. It'll be behoven on the Dems to get their message across and highlight the issues and not screw it up, which is always a possibility, but it shouldn't be hard to reach those who aren't outright Maga Nazis.
Kavanagh also said Roe Wade was settled law his word means nothing. The court is not just right-wing it is also christo-fascist and they are reshaping the United States around their evangelical beliefs and ideologies alongside the neo-liberal fiscal decisions they are making. The erosion of workers rights is accelerating with this SC.

They would need to eliminate the filibuster rule to have any chance of passing a law to increase the size of the supreme court and that is not happening any time soon with Manchin and Semeyna to name two Dem senators against that.

Bill Barr is more than just some toadie yes man as was general Flynn, you are underestimating many of his "team"

Lastly it is not just Trump, his heir apparent are equally as dangerous (De Santis possibly more so) Trump has shown what is possible, to think others won't follow and improve that playbook would be folly.

As I have said several times on this thread nothing is certain but there is a very real possibility we are watching American democracy crumble in rral time.
 
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