Tiverton By Election

Unravel_Morrison

Well-known member
Playing devils advocate but what happens to Kier Starmer's leadership should the unlikely happen and the Tories keep one or both seats?
Well, it depends which one. Labour have no chance in the one down South.

If Labour lose the Wakefield one, then it'll depend on which wing of the Labour (In)Fight Club you listen to.

The Conservative candidate has already said that the previous Tory MP was a failure so hopefully the voters take notice.
 

Unravel_Morrison

Well-known member
Well, it depends which one. Labour have no chance in the one down South.

If Labour lose the Wakefield one, then it'll depend on which wing of the Labour (In)Fight Club you listen to.

The Conservative candidate has already said that the previous Tory MP was a failure so hopefully the voters take notice.
Also, looks like a fair few racists standing in Wakefield, so they might nick some of the Tory votes as protests.
 

BoroFur

Well-known member
Playing devils advocate but what happens to Kier Starmer's leadership should the unlikely happen and the Tories keep one or both seats?
If the Tories keep Wakefield that would be a disaster. Tiverton is a combined effort and would be almost miraculous if the Tories lose the seat.
 

Ironops

Well-known member
If labour dont win Wakefield then I think Starmer may well, and probably should, walk - it was only a 3000 majority in 2019 when labour were at their worst, so even without the Tories unpopularity at the moment you would expect labour to win it back, mid term blues and all that.

I dont think it will happen though, Labour will get a big majority again
 

Uwefuchs

Well-known member
I'm not a Tory voters by any stretch of the imagination and I hope Labour wipe the floor with them in the next GE. But I haven't spoken to many people who have connected with Kier Starmer at all, I listen to a lot of politics based phone ins on the radio while I'm driving and I hear the same over and over again from callers.

As bad as Johnson is I just don't see labour winning an election with Starmer at the helm, he's good at cross examining Johnson in the commons but as a public personality he's as dull as dishwater. It shouldn't matter but it does.

Where does he stand on the railway strikes and public payrises? He seems to be trying hard not to upset anyone and play it safe. At some point he's got to show people what he's about and what he stands for.

The other thing that Tories are miles ahead with at the moment is getting messages out to the public. Its 90% lies with them but with the majority of the written press on their side they control a lot of the narratives that people fall for hook line and sinker. I still hear people talking about Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser or this current rail strike being held by drivers. If you keep committing to the same lie then people start to believe it.

I know Starmer doesn't want to stoop to Johnson's level but at some point labour need to fight fire with fire.
 

Ironops

Well-known member
I'm not a Tory voters by any stretch of the imagination and I hope Labour wipe the floor with them in the next GE. But I haven't spoken to many people who have connected with Kier Starmer at all, I listen to a lot of politics based phone ins on the radio while I'm driving and I hear the same over and over again from callers.

As bad as Johnson is I just don't see labour winning an election with Starmer at the helm, he's good at cross examining Johnson in the commons but as a public personality he's as dull as dishwater. It shouldn't matter but it does.

Where does he stand on the railway strikes and public payrises? He seems to be trying hard not to upset anyone and play it safe. At some point he's got to show people what he's about and what he stands for.

The other thing that Tories are miles ahead with at the moment is getting messages out to the public. Its 90% lies with them but with the majority of the written press on their side they control a lot of the narratives that people fall for hook line and sinker. I still hear people talking about Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser or this current rail strike being held by drivers. If you keep committing to the same lie then people start to believe it.

I know Starmer doesn't want to stoop to Johnson's level but at some point labour need to fight fire with fire.
I agree, at the moment Johnsons personal unpopularity will probably be enough to see labour as the largest party at the next election, but if they ditch him labour could be in a bit more trouble

I still think the next election will be a hung parliament though
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
Playing devils advocate but what happens to Kier Starmer's leadership should the unlikely happen and the Tories keep one or both seats?
nothing, Labour are only really in the running for wakefield and haven't really put any effort in to Tiverton. That is the Lib Dems fight.

If they fail to capture Wakefield it'll be a real kick but not terminal for Starmer. It's a 7.5% swing required. Lib Dems have no historical presence in Wakefield, it'll swing around fairly comfortably. The tories will say, it's not a traditional tory seat, he only won by 4k votes etc. hope to regain at next election yada yada. But the reality is it will be the first of those northern brexit seats to disappear from the tory radar and it won't be the last.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
As bad as Johnson is I just don't see labour winning an election with Starmer at the helm, he's good at cross examining Johnson in the commons but as a public personality he's as dull as dishwater. It shouldn't matter but it does.
give me dull as dishwater and competent, instead of incompetent and corrupt but lots of personality.

This is electing our representatives in parliament, not Love Island or I'm a Celebrity, people need to adult the fook up.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I'm not a Tory voters by any stretch of the imagination and I hope Labour wipe the floor with them in the next GE. But I haven't spoken to many people who have connected with Kier Starmer at all, I listen to a lot of politics based phone ins on the radio while I'm driving and I hear the same over and over again from callers.

As bad as Johnson is I just don't see labour winning an election with Starmer at the helm, he's good at cross examining Johnson in the commons but as a public personality he's as dull as dishwater. It shouldn't matter but it does.

Where does he stand on the railway strikes and public payrises? He seems to be trying hard not to upset anyone and play it safe. At some point he's got to show people what he's about and what he stands for.

The other thing that Tories are miles ahead with at the moment is getting messages out to the public. Its 90% lies with them but with the majority of the written press on their side they control a lot of the narratives that people fall for hook line and sinker. I still hear people talking about Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser or this current rail strike being held by drivers. If you keep committing to the same lie then people start to believe it.

I know Starmer doesn't want to stoop to Johnson's level but at some point labour need to fight fire with fire.
They don't need to connect with him, I think it's kind of the point, if he starts acting with loads of "charachter", like Johnson supposedly does (not in my opinion mind), then some might just think we have another clown on our hands. No point taking the risk, don't give the Tories anything to shoot him down with, and they'll shoot themselves, like they have been doing since BJ came in.

I'm fine with no real stance on the strikes or public payrises, as I suppose that's the centre view, which is the area where he needs to win. I generally don't agree with strikes, as they seem to lead to trouble, and also rises across the board, rather than rises for those who need them most.

Inflation is the big problem, and wages will never match inflation as high as it is now, and if it does the country would go broke as it would not be able to export anything, and exports are already struggling with brexit etc.

I think the lies are wearing thin, hence BJ's disapproval rating skyrocketing, they're like the boy who cried wolf now, even if they were actually truthful and said they were going to do something good for the low-middle class, nobody would believe it anyway.

The Tories won't be able to blame labour for anything come the next GE, as they will have been in power for 15 years, with large majorities.

I think Labour's tactics are right, play it relatively quiet/ safe, and just take the odd pot shot, when the Tories are wide open, and just save the full attack for the last year leading into the GE.

There's been a big increase in tactical voting/ vote swapping, or word about that is getting around more now, and almost anyone who's not a tory, will vote for anyone to get the tories out, which is great.

There's only so many people who read newspapers, and it's getting less and less, which is good for Labour/ Lib Dem/ Greens etc, and bad for Tories, and more and more people are wising up to online news, and which are biased or balanced.
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Betfair is a live betting market and they quote 1.26 for Libs in Tiverton which will be close to the true odds.

There are no back odds available for Labour in Wakefield which means its all over as far as betting is concerned in that seat.
 
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