These Coronavirus figures

GazC_MFC said:
Scariest bit reading that is in Italy that young people are prioritised for ventilation, and explains the particularly high death rate as health system is on its knees
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The Italian Health Service is currently rated much higher than the U.K. one isn’t it?

We were in the top 10 in 2014, but the cuts have really started to kick in since then.
 

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Lefty said:
The Italian Health Service is currently rated much higher than the U.K. one isn’t it?

We were in the top 10 in 2014, but the cuts have really started to kick in since then.
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Suggests the worst hit areas for us will be on its knees as well
 
My wife is a nurse, she has been told today her ward is going to be a designated ward only for CV cases at the hospital she works.They’re expecting the shít to hit the fan so to speak any time now - as you can imagine she is not looking forward to it !


🐔
 
Just been into my local Pizza Shop and got chatting with the owner. He said two have been diagnosed with Coronavirus on Teesside, and another two in Darlington. Anybody heard anything?
 
GazC_MFC said:
Scariest bit reading that is in Italy that young people are prioritised for ventilation, and explains the particularly high death rate as health system is on its knees
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As I said earlier the government were hinting at a similar thing in this country when beds are full. Very worrying for pensioners and those with health issues.
 
Whatever South Korea is doing everyone should be copying. Their numbers are apparently now falling and they have the lowest death rate to reported cases. Apparently they're testing anyone and everyone and so find all the positive cases - which means they can lock down more successfully. Last time I checked they had tested almost 200,000 people and were testing 10,000 a day. Their mortality rate is currently 0.7%. My guess is South Korea is the most accurate because they've done the best job of testing people and have had the virus longer.

A week or so ago South Korea used to be the second highest number of cases after China but they're now fourth. Evidently they've managed to reduce the spread.

Italy must only be testing those who turn up at emergency because their mortality rate is 6.2%. They claim 10% of all positive cases need an ICU bed which is crazy and if true must mean some are not able to get the treatment they need. I read an article that said funerals have been banned in Italy. What do they do with the bodies?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
swordtrombonefish said:
Interesting interview Bill Gates gave on his urging Trump to work proactively towards a response against a pandemic 2 years ago...
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Gates said exactly the same to Obama and others over the past few years since the Ebola outbreak in Africa. He's even funded research etc.

However crazy Trump is, he is simply trying to keep people calm in the only way he knows how (i.e. not terribly convincingly). You may want to run around with your arms in the air, but the truth is the virus will "go away" once it has done its worst - which could be anywhere from a few months to a year. So he's not entirely wrong. As a 73 year old he's more vulnerable than most posters on this board - although he happens to be a clean freak. Constantly washed his hands before the virus scare.

Contrary to news reports over the past few years Trump has actually invested more money in public health - admittedly his current budget attempts to cut that back - but that has been rapidly amended.

In the meantime Western civilisation as we know it is under extreme threat. China threatens to withhold medical supplies to the US (who astonishingly get 95% of their antibiotic base materials from China), and Russia and the Saudi's have taken the opportunity to start a full scale oil price war in an evident effort to cripple the US economy. To the great chagrin of climate extremists petrol is the cheapest today I've seen it in months. It can only get lower as people stop traveling.
 
does the term "climate extremist" still exist?! presumably it means someone who doesnt think the earth is fooked up by mans stupidity, greed & exploitation
 
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Lefty said:
But reading this thread, from a first hand account from an Italian doctor in the middle of this, I think I might have been taking this far too complacently up to now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1236933818654896129
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That actually makes for pretty scary reading.
I’m beginning to think we (the government) are leaving the serious response to this until it’s too late. Very much starting to have a feel of weighing up mass loss of life against the effect on the economy of social distancing etc.
Calculated and accepted human collateral damage?
 
I'll add to the above as the article also quotes their health minister:

"Health Minister Jens Spahn confirmed the Chancellor's analysis. 60 to 70 percent of infected people must be expected - if it is not possible to develop and use a vaccine in advance."

This comment suggests the 60%-70% estimates to be a long term diagnosis of the situation, as timelines for a vaccine are in the range of 12 to 18 months. Just to add some perspective to the headline figures.
 
bear66 said:
Now it's working into Government things may ramp up to what should have been done two weeks ago.
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I think that to some extent you do have to wait until the virus is more widespread before taking the more extreme measures. (The whole containment v delay thing). As such, certain measures won't have been appropriate two weeks ago. If you close a stadium/mass gathering when only 1 person is likely to be in the stadium with the virus, what you achieve from closing it is relatively little. If you wait until there might be 500 in the stadium with the virus, it achieves much more (relatively speaking) by doing so.
 
Cuthbert said:
I think that to some extent you do have to wait until the virus is more widespread before taking the more extreme measures. (The whole containment v delay thing). As such, certain measures won't have been appropriate two weeks ago. If you close a stadium/mass gathering when only 1 person is likely to be in the stadium with the virus, what you achieve from closing it is relatively little. If you wait until there might be 500 in the stadium with the virus, it achieves much more (relatively speaking) by doing so.
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I think Cuthbert the point of closing mass gatherings is to avoid the infection rate hitting it's tipping point.

If you wait until 500 people in a stadium have the virus, at the end of the game 1,500 will have the virus.

Its the old compund grains of rice fable
 
Laughing - Indeed. I THINK we are agreeing? It wasn't my theory either. I was reading about the reasoning behind it at the weekend.

So it's to do with the 'delay' phase. As you say, if you close a stadium when 1 person might be infected (like a couple/few weeks back), then by the end of a game, 3 people might be infected. A very small 'achievement' for shutting the stadium. If you wait untill 500 people would be in the stadium, then (as you say), by the end of the game where 1500 people WOULD have been infected, it's a lot more beneficial to shut it.
 
Cuthbert said:
I think that to some extent you do have to wait until the virus is more widespread before taking the more extreme measures. (The whole containment v delay thing). As such, certain measures won't have been appropriate two weeks ago. If you close a stadium/mass gathering when only 1 person is likely to be in the stadium with the virus, what you achieve from closing it is relatively little. If you wait until there might be 500 in the stadium with the virus, it achieves much more (relatively speaking) by doing so.
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Containment is about understanding where every person has been infected and getting everyone to self isolate who has been in contact with that person. We've been beyond that for some time. If you carry on with containment, one person at a football match means everyone at the match has to make a decision on self-isolation. Better to prevent those large scale contacts now we know it's in the wild.

There was someone on the Today programme saying that friends and relatives might think about not visiting care homes. For such high risk groupings of people, that should be mandatory advice from the CMO. It may be draconian but if it gets into a care home there will be multiple deaths.

As I said, minds will be reset by government now an MP has the virus . . . but they should have been reset sooner.
 
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