* The Unofficial "Official" Swansea v Boro Match-day Thread UTMB *

[BoroMart]

I'd agree with that because Wilder did better on his arrival with Warnock's players than Warnock had. If he had had them from the start then I think we would be at least six points better off, possibly more.
BUT it is also true that since the turn of the year we have more players, players Wilder has signed and we have not kicked on.
We were 5th on Dec 31st and had just beaten Forest, Bournemouth and Blackpool away.
We have not get better since then that is for sure.

I still think we can make 6th, even now, but I was positive as I left Bloomfield Road.

I think there have been a number of poor performances in the last 4 months, but prior to that we had an easier run of games that made us look better than we really are.

But we have to look at the efforts that we expended in the cup, those 2x 2 hour games hit our energy levels and we ended up playing more games than other sides. We have had some decent highlights in 2022 - Man Utd away, Spurs home are the obvious, we beat Cov, West Brom and Luton. Draws at Bournemouth, Millwall and QPR that all could have been wins. 4 goals against Derby and Peterborough also got a monkey off our back about failing to take chances.

We've had 4 stinkers though Bristol, Sheff Utd and Barnsley away and Hull at home. Sheff Utd was poor, the other 3 we still should have won but missed chances over and again.

I think the lack of options means we haven't been able to make changes. Crooks should have been dropped weeks ago, but we didn't have any options. Jones could have done with a rest, but there are no other options and yes forwards have struggled full stop.

I really think we're a couple of decent signings from play offs and maybe 4 good signings from challenging for auto promotion

 

[Rofesleg]

It doesn’t have to be three on the bounce.

Erm.. let’s see the simplest way to explain..
On average points over the season..
Sheffield United 72 (currently 69) one win and one loss. More likely to decrease than increase.
They have one home game and one away.
The two games are both likely to be the loss QPR is the away so would attract that result moreover. A draw would require a win for the final game.. but statistically the loss is the more likely result. Chances stacked against and against the top of the table. 72 Max, more instances of 70 points.

Middlesbrough 68 (currently 64) one win, one draw and one loss. More likely to increase than decrease.

There’s a model that predicts tsunami’s and financial markets.. long story short you add you add you add and eventually you collapse, not always total, but collapse is inevitable. After a collapse you cannot collapse further, you can flatline (financial) or the collapse can be indicative of a structural flaw/fault meaning there will be no build up (geological) either way you are more likely to go up than down.. eventually. The chance of improvement on the WDL 4 points will go WWL, WDW or WWW.. 6 points, 7 points or 9 points. WWW is the least likely and with two home games the most likely becomes WWD -there are more instances of this happening than any other sequence so any two wins and one draw with the most likely to draw being an away game.

7 points + 64 points = 71 points is mostly likely
although with that most likely draw result being the last game Is against Preston 15th and the relit is stacked in favour of improvement verses Sheffields stacked game all be it at home..
Well that’s what makes it more likely.

Fry, Crooks, McGree, Payero.. all sands/sediment building up, all favourable investments. They will be there where previously they were not and as a result more likely to produce a positive contribution.

I'm glad you chose the simplest way to explain. God help us if you took the complicated route.

 

[Ipad1977]

How is it top 6

Keepers 5
Defence 8
Midfield 6
Attack 5

We need to be better is 3 depts to be top 6 imo

Not quite, it depends on the replacements. If we'd so much as had Randolph between the sticks instead of Lumley I'd argue we'd be sitting pretty now with the points his errors have cost us.

 

[newyddion]

Not sure I totally follow all of that but sounds like you know your stuff so here is hoping

Statistically Sheffield United are most likely to finish on 72 points and Middlesbrough are most likely to finish with more than 71 points.. the only way that can happen is with a win leaving us on 73 points.

Luton have crumbled, it won’t get any worse for them although not worse than 0-7 is still pretty bad. If the collapse was indicative of a structural flaw/fault (injuries, suspensions, moral) then we could see another bad result. Was it 9 players out? If they are back for Saturday I think it will be a Luton win.