* The Unofficial "Official" Matchday Thread. Boro v Peterborough. Saturday 16th October *
- Thread starter r00fie1
- Start date
TheYorkshireTerrier
Well-known member
Always have a sore scrolling thumb after opening these threads 
I’m going for 4-3 today, can’t call who to, though.
I’m going for 4-3 today, can’t call who to, though.
Laughing
Well-known member
I agree there will be goals today and lots of themAlways have a sore scrolling thumb after opening these threads
I’m going for 4-3 today, can’t call who to, though.
changingman
Well-known member
Looks 343 for me.
Bamba McNair and Howson at the back
Tav and Hernandez wing backs.
Sporar and Watmore off Uche.
Think I midfield two Payero and Crooks risks being overran mine.
Bamba McNair and Howson at the back
Tav and Hernandez wing backs.
Sporar and Watmore off Uche.
Think I midfield two Payero and Crooks risks being overran mine.
Bob Fischer
Active member
Amazing! It's like having Kevin Keegan in charge.
jonny_greenings_sock
Well-known member
As expected really:
-----------------Lumley-----------------
-----------------Bamba-----------------
Tav----- Howson----McNair-----------
----------------Payero------------------
-----------------Crooks-----------------
-- Everyone else------------------------
-----------------Lumley-----------------
-----------------Bamba-----------------
Tav----- Howson----McNair-----------
----------------Payero------------------
-----------------Crooks-----------------
-- Everyone else------------------------
Laughing
Well-known member
Any statisticians explain the following to me?
I was doing some corrrelation calculations on football data this morning. I worked out the correlation between the following stats against a binary field 0/1 where 0 is more than 2.5 goals and 1 is less than 2.5 goals, and this is a confirmed result.
The correlations shown below are home and away for :
The total average number of goals scored AND conceded (first 2 rows)
The percentage of games for a team that ended with more than 2.5 goals ( rows 3 and 4)
The average number of goals scored AND conceded by half time (rows 5 and 6)
Correlation Data More than 2.5 goals
Total Away Goals -0.07435564126
Total Home Goals -0.1153610731
Home %<3 Goals -0.1101564373
Away %<3 Goals -0.06329618731
Home half time goals -0.09131360568
Away half time goals -0.05349443279
Here is my question. Why is the correlation always stronger for the home team, and not just a bit, but a lot? I suspected before doing the work that the home team is likely to dictate the type of game played so have a slightly stronger correlation but not the differences I am seeing. I would be interested to hear football fans thoughts on why this would be the case.
The data was run over 4,500 games across the major european leagues.
I was doing some corrrelation calculations on football data this morning. I worked out the correlation between the following stats against a binary field 0/1 where 0 is more than 2.5 goals and 1 is less than 2.5 goals, and this is a confirmed result.
The correlations shown below are home and away for :
The total average number of goals scored AND conceded (first 2 rows)
The percentage of games for a team that ended with more than 2.5 goals ( rows 3 and 4)
The average number of goals scored AND conceded by half time (rows 5 and 6)
Correlation Data More than 2.5 goals
Total Away Goals -0.07435564126
Total Home Goals -0.1153610731
Home %<3 Goals -0.1101564373
Away %<3 Goals -0.06329618731
Home half time goals -0.09131360568
Away half time goals -0.05349443279
Here is my question. Why is the correlation always stronger for the home team, and not just a bit, but a lot? I suspected before doing the work that the home team is likely to dictate the type of game played so have a slightly stronger correlation but not the differences I am seeing. I would be interested to hear football fans thoughts on why this would be the case.
The data was run over 4,500 games across the major european leagues.
Laughing
Well-known member
Whats that jonny 2 goalies? I like it a 2-3-1-1-4 formation.
allied_assault
Well-known member
NW may just stumble on a winning team
jonny_greenings_sock
Well-known member
Nah, Bamba's holding together the defence there by being the only defender. 1-1-3-2-4, let's have it.
More questions rather than answers! Which competition(s) does this data apply to and when? Have you tried running the same calculations for no covid/ covid (behind closed doors)? If so, does it show much of a change?
Laughing
Well-known member
Ah interesting. The data starts from december last year and I never even considered closed door games. Nice catch.
It is league games only and coverrs the major football nations in europe down to the 3rd divisions in each.
Laughing
Well-known member
I like it even betterr, we can't defend anyway so why pretend, or, play to your strengths.
weemoby
Well-known member
BoroMart
Well-known member
Vindaloo Football.....we're gonna score one more than you
NYboro
Well-known member
Works for me!
dooderooni
Well-known member
Nil nil nailed on
NeilInFrance
Well-known member
Howson drifting into right wing back (for absent Tavernier) so effectively 2 at the back now