The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
He'll probs be off grid for a bit now.
"Things are going a bit crazy as you might have noticed.
Staromlynivka
Ukraine has pushed through Zavitne Bashannya and are now starting the main assault on Staromlynivka.
At the same time they are pushing hard towards East and Novodonet'ske and Kermenchyk.
They report total disorder among the Russians.
Tokmak Direction
Novoprokopivka has fallen and the attack on Solodka Balk is ongoing with the village being surrounded by heavy units.
The 21st has been ordered to disengage at Polohy and is being replaced by a less potent unit that is supposed to just hold the breach.
The 21st is to go to Solodka Balka and join up with the 82nd Airborne.
Here there is also extreme confusion among the Russians, so Zaluzhnyy has decided to push home the attack as fast as possible.
The order is to punch through and take Tokmak as fast as possible since there are limited troops there.
If they succeed with a rapid victory there this part of the war is over, the rest is at worst just mopping up.
Combined the 21st and 82nd can deliver 45 000 shells during the inital assault, there is no way a poorly defended city can withstand that without serious reinforcements.
Russian Channels
There is tremendous anger among the Russians, Shoigu has ordered that no reserves will be sent, and they are convinced that he is about to order a withdrawal from West of the Staromlynivka to Berdyansk line and North of Crimea.
I hope that they do try to pull out, it would save large portions of Tokmak from being demolished.
Many civilians are trying to flee from there expecting the entire city to be demolished, not that many remain there to begin with."
"Things are going a bit crazy as you might have noticed.
Staromlynivka
Ukraine has pushed through Zavitne Bashannya and are now starting the main assault on Staromlynivka.
At the same time they are pushing hard towards East and Novodonet'ske and Kermenchyk.
They report total disorder among the Russians.
Tokmak Direction
Novoprokopivka has fallen and the attack on Solodka Balk is ongoing with the village being surrounded by heavy units.
The 21st has been ordered to disengage at Polohy and is being replaced by a less potent unit that is supposed to just hold the breach.
The 21st is to go to Solodka Balka and join up with the 82nd Airborne.
Here there is also extreme confusion among the Russians, so Zaluzhnyy has decided to push home the attack as fast as possible.
The order is to punch through and take Tokmak as fast as possible since there are limited troops there.
If they succeed with a rapid victory there this part of the war is over, the rest is at worst just mopping up.
Combined the 21st and 82nd can deliver 45 000 shells during the inital assault, there is no way a poorly defended city can withstand that without serious reinforcements.
Russian Channels
There is tremendous anger among the Russians, Shoigu has ordered that no reserves will be sent, and they are convinced that he is about to order a withdrawal from West of the Staromlynivka to Berdyansk line and North of Crimea.
I hope that they do try to pull out, it would save large portions of Tokmak from being demolished.
Many civilians are trying to flee from there expecting the entire city to be demolished, not that many remain there to begin with."
By the way, for anyone wondering. They picked up 132 surrendering mobiks from the river. Sadly, 9 didn't make it across and 4 were too scared to try.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
A quick one after his short recce in southern Kherson. He was saying yesterday how bizarre it that he can go to a nice restaurant and have a pleasant lunch in Kherson north of the river as though there was nothing much going on at all. Daily normal life within kilometres of the war front.
"We cut the inspecting short due to lack of Russians to inspect so, I just landed in Northern Kherson for a bit of lunch.
Also, we did not want to be in the way as Ukraine is hauling over an unusually light-weight mechanized brigade.
This was the first takeaway, they have formed mechanized battalions that are using lightweight and fast armour, going for speed over weight.
This is brilliant since you can truly keep up the speed in that flat huge area, and speed is in and of itself protection against getting hit by artillery.
Next thing is the lack of Russians.
Around Kozachi Laheri there are none to be found, same goes around a couple of other spots.
And there are signs that if they are hit, they withdraw to avoid taking losses.
They then withdraw to south of the desert.
The Lada-VDV guys mostly seem to aim for the southern side and are milling about North of the Crimea land approach.
My working theory is that they were sent to reinforce that position, and not to fight the Ukrainians on the open reaches.
But my biggest takeaway after renting a local Lada from a dude we met and driving out on the open steppe/desert was "dear lord"...
It is the largest sand desert in Europe, and in between you have steppes.
The ground is impervious to mudification (I had to invent a word on the fly here).
It does not matter what season it is, Ukraine can push on here regardless.
On a personal note.
I love deserts and other desolate places.
When the war is over I will walk out into this huge expanse and just get myself lost for a week or two.
It was so extremely beautiful.
Unless Russia devote a mechanized brigade to defending here and somehow manages to get it into the area, they have lost Southern Kherson.
Leaving the Ukrainians alone unmolested like this is the perfect recipee for a loss.
And the Ukrainians have prepared for months to go across, collecting boats, ferries, barges, tugs...
It is quite busy on the rivers as they take advantage of Russia not being arsebothered about what they are doing.
Ukraine is though taking it slowly and are building up their forces inside their slowly expanding bridgehead taking no chances.
Very professional units taking no risks.
Time is truly right now on their side, and if Russia sends something big their direction, they have both time and distance to deal with it.
Zugzwang
With the resources at their disposal Russia had two bad options.
They had two moves to make.
Save Kherson, or save Zhaporizhzhia, saving both was really by now beyond their means without sacrificing Donbas.
So, Russia chose to do nothing in regards of Kherson, or almost nothing.
By skipping to do their move, they had to give up Kherson.
Let me walk through the options they had.
Sending reinforcements out of Donbas would have risked losing Donetsk and Luhansk longterm.
Seemingly Russia is not willing to do that, so Russia is currently only moving units within Donbas itself, but not out of Donbas.
Moving forces out of Zhaporizhzhia while fighting a retreating battle would have collapsed their front here.
The troops here are currently not trapped, and keeping the troops in Zhap gives Russia the alternative to pull them out to reinforce in Donbas on a massive scale and will, at least for the time being, give them the option to continue to control Donbas, or even do limited offensives.
This is where we are heading now.
Reinforcing Kherson would have trapped the soldiers behind the Ukrainian advancement in Zhap, and later trap them in Crimea without logistics and the possibility to reinforce.
Crimea can not sustain a large amount of soldiers, so if Russia will try to hold it they have to go for quality, hence the VDV in Ladas.
Conclusion
As winter sets in Kherson will be free and Ukraine will be bombarding that Western landbridge approach into smithereens.
I am also sure that by that time Ukraine will have cut the Southern Landbridge and liberated a large part, or all, of Zhaporizhzhia.
Question is more where they will make the cut(s).
Russia seems to prefer that the cut is made at Melitopol since that would give Russia more ground to hold and more time to retreat if needed.
We can see that from Russia being more keen to reinforce further East compared to the Robotyne, Tokmak to Melitopol axis.
Equally Ukraine prefer the cut to be as far East as possible, with Mariupol being the prefered option.
But, they will take any "freebee" obviously.
And, if they cut to Melitopol they will have two front-directions to progress on, from the North and from the West, giving the ability to alternate punches as weaknesses appear.
Now I am off for 36 hours.
Odesa is beconing for me, it will be good to go "home"."
"We cut the inspecting short due to lack of Russians to inspect so, I just landed in Northern Kherson for a bit of lunch.
Also, we did not want to be in the way as Ukraine is hauling over an unusually light-weight mechanized brigade.
This was the first takeaway, they have formed mechanized battalions that are using lightweight and fast armour, going for speed over weight.
This is brilliant since you can truly keep up the speed in that flat huge area, and speed is in and of itself protection against getting hit by artillery.
Next thing is the lack of Russians.
Around Kozachi Laheri there are none to be found, same goes around a couple of other spots.
And there are signs that if they are hit, they withdraw to avoid taking losses.
They then withdraw to south of the desert.
The Lada-VDV guys mostly seem to aim for the southern side and are milling about North of the Crimea land approach.
My working theory is that they were sent to reinforce that position, and not to fight the Ukrainians on the open reaches.
But my biggest takeaway after renting a local Lada from a dude we met and driving out on the open steppe/desert was "dear lord"...
It is the largest sand desert in Europe, and in between you have steppes.
The ground is impervious to mudification (I had to invent a word on the fly here).
It does not matter what season it is, Ukraine can push on here regardless.
On a personal note.
I love deserts and other desolate places.
When the war is over I will walk out into this huge expanse and just get myself lost for a week or two.
It was so extremely beautiful.
Unless Russia devote a mechanized brigade to defending here and somehow manages to get it into the area, they have lost Southern Kherson.
Leaving the Ukrainians alone unmolested like this is the perfect recipee for a loss.
And the Ukrainians have prepared for months to go across, collecting boats, ferries, barges, tugs...
It is quite busy on the rivers as they take advantage of Russia not being arsebothered about what they are doing.
Ukraine is though taking it slowly and are building up their forces inside their slowly expanding bridgehead taking no chances.
Very professional units taking no risks.
Time is truly right now on their side, and if Russia sends something big their direction, they have both time and distance to deal with it.
Zugzwang
With the resources at their disposal Russia had two bad options.
They had two moves to make.
Save Kherson, or save Zhaporizhzhia, saving both was really by now beyond their means without sacrificing Donbas.
So, Russia chose to do nothing in regards of Kherson, or almost nothing.
By skipping to do their move, they had to give up Kherson.
Let me walk through the options they had.
Sending reinforcements out of Donbas would have risked losing Donetsk and Luhansk longterm.
Seemingly Russia is not willing to do that, so Russia is currently only moving units within Donbas itself, but not out of Donbas.
Moving forces out of Zhaporizhzhia while fighting a retreating battle would have collapsed their front here.
The troops here are currently not trapped, and keeping the troops in Zhap gives Russia the alternative to pull them out to reinforce in Donbas on a massive scale and will, at least for the time being, give them the option to continue to control Donbas, or even do limited offensives.
This is where we are heading now.
Reinforcing Kherson would have trapped the soldiers behind the Ukrainian advancement in Zhap, and later trap them in Crimea without logistics and the possibility to reinforce.
Crimea can not sustain a large amount of soldiers, so if Russia will try to hold it they have to go for quality, hence the VDV in Ladas.
Conclusion
As winter sets in Kherson will be free and Ukraine will be bombarding that Western landbridge approach into smithereens.
I am also sure that by that time Ukraine will have cut the Southern Landbridge and liberated a large part, or all, of Zhaporizhzhia.
Question is more where they will make the cut(s).
Russia seems to prefer that the cut is made at Melitopol since that would give Russia more ground to hold and more time to retreat if needed.
We can see that from Russia being more keen to reinforce further East compared to the Robotyne, Tokmak to Melitopol axis.
Equally Ukraine prefer the cut to be as far East as possible, with Mariupol being the prefered option.
But, they will take any "freebee" obviously.
And, if they cut to Melitopol they will have two front-directions to progress on, from the North and from the West, giving the ability to alternate punches as weaknesses appear.
Now I am off for 36 hours.
Odesa is beconing for me, it will be good to go "home"."
Reading your mates update are like watching everything everywhere all at once...
One second the war is over in a day, the next second Ukraine are taking it slowly whilst just bombing every Russian position to smithereens, Putin's dead, Putin's alive. Random names of places that when you look at them on a map are smaller than the local hamlet.
Russians and their useless army unable to hold a square inch of land, Ukraine the best fighting force in the world. Yet everyone else is saying it's a grind, both sides are heavily mobilising men, the conflict is frozen.
It's a wild ride but I think I need to get off, your mate is like the ex you can't let go of. She's sexy, great in bed and promises the world but is also insane.
One second the war is over in a day, the next second Ukraine are taking it slowly whilst just bombing every Russian position to smithereens, Putin's dead, Putin's alive. Random names of places that when you look at them on a map are smaller than the local hamlet.
Russians and their useless army unable to hold a square inch of land, Ukraine the best fighting force in the world. Yet everyone else is saying it's a grind, both sides are heavily mobilising men, the conflict is frozen.
It's a wild ride but I think I need to get off, your mate is like the ex you can't let go of. She's sexy, great in bed and promises the world but is also insane.
Scrote
Well-known member
This is just the nature of warfare though.
Ukraine make a plan to slowly move forward due to large minefields and heavily defended positions. Those minefields aren't there and Russia has moved troops elsewhere. The narrative changes almost instantly.
“No plan survives contact with the enemy” (or lack of contact!).
The thing with the hamlets was explained a few days ago. Fresh water is available from wells. It's not some convoluted explanation that only exists to join the dots. It makes perfect sense and passes the Occam's Razor test with flying colours.
I had some doubts very early on as to how much actual intel this source had but as time has gone on things ring far truer when you compare them to after-the-fact accounts from WW2, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.
Even the Putin stuff has always been framed as best-guess. At the same time Putin's intelligence officers will be trying to make those guesses difficult.
If it affects you this way, as you said, probably best not to visit this thread. Unless he meets an untimely end (obvs I hope not) or gets rotated out, then these updates will likely continue. Things do change rapidly and what you will get from him is "as he sees it" from his position .... which is much closer to the front than most other sources you might read.
Meanwhile in Sweden (open in chrome for translation)
www.svt.se
Zelenskyj i Sverige – har skrivit nytt avtal om Stridsfordon 90
Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelenskyj är på plats i Sverige. Ett nytt avtal om att gemensamt producera svenska Stridsfordon 90 på plats i Ukraina har upprättats under dagen. – Det är så viktigt för oss, säger Zelenskyj vid en pressträff med statsminister Ulf Kristersson (M).
www.svt.se
Frankie Lee
Well-known member
The Putin stuff was ridiculous to be fair. I don’t want to knock this thread because I’m enjoying it as much as everyone else. But saying Putin was dead when he was there in plain sight meeting Xi of China, or making tv addresses was just daft.
Oh Lord, another one.
Hap
Well-known member
You can only explain something so many times…
Frankie Lee
Well-known member
I’m being respectful here and not insulting anyone. I. Just disagreeing with you. The whole thread has been full of ridiculous comments. Just like at the very beginning when the Kremlin was surrounded ready for a Coup. Anyways, I don’t want to get banned so I’ll shut up.
Well, suggesting that the thread is full of ridiculous comments is disrespectful. Especially as you are aiming those remarks at someone who is currently at the front trying, successfully so far, to prevent a nuclear power station from blowing up. You are also suggesting that you know more than someone with many years of experience as a military intelligence analyst in a country which has long had a much more acute reason to be following Putin's movements that the UK. And, unlike you I suspect, those intelligence analysts (and this was coming from a specific team who have tracked/watched Putin for years) can distinguish the real Putin from his doubles, it's their job... my mate was merely reporting their thoughts. He never categorically said he was dead ... they just had come to the conclusion that he was or was incapacitated, since he was not seen for months. The second the real Putin reappeared, they knew. So do be respectful when the information you are reading is coming from someone who is in harm's way at the moment.
Frankie Lee
Well-known member
Sure, I can do that no problem.
Last edited by a moderator:
Not specifically for Frankie, but for all readers following this thread. Some context.
When I first started this thread it was because the first signs of willingness among politicians to express dissent against Putin, who had up until then managed to keep all such dissent quiet. As things developed with the war I started to paraphrase some things that my mate was telling me. When I started to quote his ramblings directly, people seemed to enjoy it so I continued. At that time there was absolutely no indication that he would end up in Ukraine on the front. None. He had no idea.
I had known him for over ten years. Although we seldom actually see each other in person, aside from through zoom/teams meetings, we communicate more or less daily, usually several times a day. We have been engaged with our project for about 16 months now ... so we talk mostly about that. But we get on really well, so discuss other things too. He is insanely bright and very articulate. He is also physically fairly impressive ... though has been a bit out of shape.
I have known for years that he had a military past. I suspected special forces, but didn't know for sure as he would very rarely talk about it in any detail. I did know that he had served in some tricky spots in Africa .... Congo, Zaire for instance and also had done stuff in eastern Europe. He has also, over the time that I've know him, had a tendency to go missing for extended periods of time. I now know that this was because he was on military duty (ie training the Ukrainian forces). He never revealed precisely what he was doing. Over time I got to know that, once a month, he would have to attend a meeting in the capital that involved all sorts of arcane stuff ... wearing particular brown woollen suits ...and the minutes all being taken on typewriters. This became known as typewriter day. Think John Le Carre.
When the Russians were preparing to invade, his knowledge of what was happening on the ground indicated that he had access to the kind of intelligence and satellite info that was not available to many people. As the conflict developed he was called up (he has always been a reservist since leaving the special forces). Again, this involved training UAF but also it was clear that Sweden was preparing for the eventually of a Russian invasion. The Swedes knew chapter and verse what Putin's grand plans were and it would have seen a greater Russia extending across the Baltic states.
The intelligence work started to take up a lot of his time ... but he was still working on our stuff when he could. I started to understand the bigger picture in Sweden and why he had a former Prime minister as a boss. I also got to know that a certain family pulls a lot of strings.... in Sweden and on a global scale. And I learned, eventually, that he kind of worked for them.
When the right wing democrats got themselves into a position of power, he actually tried to resign from all his duties in protest ... but that same ex PM wouldn't let him step away from all of them. Hence he ended up on a plane to Indonesia last year for the G7/8/9 or whatever it was. He was that ex PM's military advisor.
When the Russians planted mines at the ZNPP "the West" decided something had to be done ... directly. It couldn't be a NATO country though. There was an obvious, well armed, well located country with very good special forces (SOG) that have been busy on global peacekeeping duties for a decade. They were though short of commanders with the right kind of battlefield experience. Much to my annoyance he "unretired" himself and volunteered to lead the mission. This has been incredibly inconvenient (costly) for me, not to mention worrying on a personal level. There was so much "you couldn't make this up" going on that I thought I was being pranked for a while .... for instance the training they undertook for the mission was at a closed down nuclear power plant, which was the very location for one of our first projects.
Anyway, it is what it is. I see enough from him to know that he is exactly where he says he is, doing what he says he is doing. Given what I know about him, and the kind of troops/hardware/munitions/tech that he has at his disposal.... I really would not want to be up against him.
Oh, and Tank Girl has just been filmed in 70mm for a Jean Claude Van Damme type spectacular advertisement for the Swedish forces. And someone has beaten me to the rights to her story (annoying). They filmed her as she gave the order for the 21sts first volley of fire the other day. When it is published in Sweden I will share it.
So this is how a football message board has become the unlikely place to read direct missives from someone with such "inside" information.
I don't share everything, even though he is clear that he only shares what he is allowed.
When I first started this thread it was because the first signs of willingness among politicians to express dissent against Putin, who had up until then managed to keep all such dissent quiet. As things developed with the war I started to paraphrase some things that my mate was telling me. When I started to quote his ramblings directly, people seemed to enjoy it so I continued. At that time there was absolutely no indication that he would end up in Ukraine on the front. None. He had no idea.
I had known him for over ten years. Although we seldom actually see each other in person, aside from through zoom/teams meetings, we communicate more or less daily, usually several times a day. We have been engaged with our project for about 16 months now ... so we talk mostly about that. But we get on really well, so discuss other things too. He is insanely bright and very articulate. He is also physically fairly impressive ... though has been a bit out of shape.
I have known for years that he had a military past. I suspected special forces, but didn't know for sure as he would very rarely talk about it in any detail. I did know that he had served in some tricky spots in Africa .... Congo, Zaire for instance and also had done stuff in eastern Europe. He has also, over the time that I've know him, had a tendency to go missing for extended periods of time. I now know that this was because he was on military duty (ie training the Ukrainian forces). He never revealed precisely what he was doing. Over time I got to know that, once a month, he would have to attend a meeting in the capital that involved all sorts of arcane stuff ... wearing particular brown woollen suits ...and the minutes all being taken on typewriters. This became known as typewriter day. Think John Le Carre.
When the Russians were preparing to invade, his knowledge of what was happening on the ground indicated that he had access to the kind of intelligence and satellite info that was not available to many people. As the conflict developed he was called up (he has always been a reservist since leaving the special forces). Again, this involved training UAF but also it was clear that Sweden was preparing for the eventually of a Russian invasion. The Swedes knew chapter and verse what Putin's grand plans were and it would have seen a greater Russia extending across the Baltic states.
The intelligence work started to take up a lot of his time ... but he was still working on our stuff when he could. I started to understand the bigger picture in Sweden and why he had a former Prime minister as a boss. I also got to know that a certain family pulls a lot of strings.... in Sweden and on a global scale. And I learned, eventually, that he kind of worked for them.
When the right wing democrats got themselves into a position of power, he actually tried to resign from all his duties in protest ... but that same ex PM wouldn't let him step away from all of them. Hence he ended up on a plane to Indonesia last year for the G7/8/9 or whatever it was. He was that ex PM's military advisor.
When the Russians planted mines at the ZNPP "the West" decided something had to be done ... directly. It couldn't be a NATO country though. There was an obvious, well armed, well located country with very good special forces (SOG) that have been busy on global peacekeeping duties for a decade. They were though short of commanders with the right kind of battlefield experience. Much to my annoyance he "unretired" himself and volunteered to lead the mission. This has been incredibly inconvenient (costly) for me, not to mention worrying on a personal level. There was so much "you couldn't make this up" going on that I thought I was being pranked for a while .... for instance the training they undertook for the mission was at a closed down nuclear power plant, which was the very location for one of our first projects.
Anyway, it is what it is. I see enough from him to know that he is exactly where he says he is, doing what he says he is doing. Given what I know about him, and the kind of troops/hardware/munitions/tech that he has at his disposal.... I really would not want to be up against him.
Oh, and Tank Girl has just been filmed in 70mm for a Jean Claude Van Damme type spectacular advertisement for the Swedish forces. And someone has beaten me to the rights to her story (annoying). They filmed her as she gave the order for the 21sts first volley of fire the other day. When it is published in Sweden I will share it.
So this is how a football message board has become the unlikely place to read direct missives from someone with such "inside" information.
I don't share everything, even though he is clear that he only shares what he is allowed.
DearChicago
Well-known member
This thread gives me hope and is a fantastic read. If it annoys some people so much, don’t read it. It’s definitely the most interesting thing I’ve read on here!
Decent_Left
Well-known member
Anyone else wondering if the Ukrainians have launched a tractor in response and it’s just doing what Ukrainian tractors do
ChrisChefYork
Active member
Poor people, I worry that as a last resort, Putin will go nuclear.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
To be honest most of what you have just explained you have said on here in a round about way at various points and the people who have been heavily involved in the thread had probably worked a lot of that out already(obviously not exact details such as times frames etc etc).
I have at no point been given any reason to doubt you or your mate as a lot of things have been eventually shared on various social media accounts or mainstream media, other things haven't been publicly released but with a bit of digging on social media you can get mild hints of the things which have been said. Something's haven't come to fruition but that is to be expected as much as things coming true due to the constant evolution of an active conflict and FoW.