The end?

For the military minded, this is what's heading Russia's way:

Let me present the 21st Brigade/Division/Army...
This list is as accurate as can be given at this point in time, but there are more units attaching every other week.
Some of them I can't divulge yet due to Swedy Sneakifications.

The Dainty Feet
Note that the first seven Battalions are double strength.
1. Headquarters & Headquarters Company
2. 1st Mechanised Battalion
3. 2nd Mechanised Battalion
4. 3rd Mechanised Battalion
5. Tank Battalion
6. Artillery Battalion + 2 Missile Companies + 2 GRAD-companies (you didn't expect her to forget her beloved GRADs?)
7. Air Defence Battalion
8. Engineering Battalion
9. Logistics Battalion
10. Maintanence Battalion
11. Signal Company
12. Radar Company
13. Medical Company
14. CBRN Protection Company

The 21st is a Division, and it is still retaining being the heaviest title, it is the heaviest Division ever fielded.
There was never 50 CV90s, there was 150, same goes for the 30 tanks (not 10), Archers are full 24, 24 GLSDB launcher trucks, a full Patriot and 2 IRIS-Ts, etcetera etcetera ad absurdum.
Even calling it a division is somewhat a stretch, it is more powerful than that.
 
I can say that after 12 hours, they paused the firing. Consolidating and waiting to see if the enemy sent reinforcements.
There opsec is clearly very good. Apparently the whole division schooled in not taking photos or video and trying to avoid being caught on civilian cameras.
 
I can say that after 12 hours, they paused the firing. Consolidating and waiting to see if the enemy sent reinforcements.
There opsec is clearly very good. Apparently the whole division schooled in not taking photos or video and trying to avoid being caught on civilian cameras.

They are. Although there are some reports of progress in a couple of spots on the front and I've been looking for hints that it is this force in one of them, it's been impossible to tell so far.
 
They are. Although there are some reports of progress in a couple of spots on the front and I've been looking for hints that it is this force in one of them, it's been impossible to tell so far.

The place to look (they are well and truly through the defence lines) is in the area between Orekhov, Mariupol, Berdyansk and Tokmak. They are still taking stock to see what RF does.
 
A short frontline update from Zhap. It starts with something that @Lefty asked me privately to ask my mate a few days ago. Basically, can the kind of imaging used on Timeteam be used to spot minefields. That tech is actually expensive and also much of thr ground on the front is disturbed. But now, juet days later, it appears they have founds ways to use cheaper thermal imaging to spot mines at night. This is ground breaking and life saving stuff. Now, if it has been warm, you can use thermal imaging to spot mines in the cooler night air.


"I will go through the frontline news below.
But first I will answer a question from Nick.
It is about how Ukraine find mines and minefields.

Some crafty Ukrainian drone operator used the IR-camera on a more advanced drone and noticed a lot of weird white dots, they then compared it to a spot they knew was mined by them the next night...
Turns out that the mines soak up heat during the day even when dug down, and then disperse it during the night.
Basically all mines on the planet are now visible through simple means, and the entire world will have to switch over to heat-neutral mines...
See picture.

Bakhmut
It is the season for Klichi'ivka tennis.
About two weeks ago Ukraine took Klich, then a few days ago Russia took it back (sort of), and now Ukraine has taken it back with quite severe losses of T-90M2 Proryv (at least 3 of them).
This is Russias most modern tank, and they have never lost that many in one go.
Ouch.

Urozhaine
Ukraine has reached the small river north of Zavitne Bazhannya and they are sitting firing point blank at the few Russians that are there.
It turns out that Russia is not gonna defend here, no units are moving in this direction, and the small garrison is leggin it away.

As soon as bridging equipment arrive they will take the village formally.
This will in turn leave Volodyne to the West of Staromlynivka open for the taking.
Russia is currently pooling their meager resources at Staromlynivka for what might be their last stand behind the rivers.
They are moving in troops that was waiting at the bigger Surovikin line to the south.
Probably intent on trying to use the rivers as a natural barrier.
Desperate move.

Polohy Direction
The zeroline hath zeroth'd.
After 12 hours nothing was left alive.
Nobody escaped, no POVs was taken.
They have now pulled back inviting Russia to try to retake the trenches.
If they do rinse/repeat, if not they will most likely move again taking the next line in the same manner.
For now they are resting and eating large amounts of Borstj.

Taking Polohy would open up the road to Berdyansk, and simultaneously give a second access road to Tokmak.
Choices, good thing to have in life.

Robotyne
Ukraine here has already moved through the first Surovikin line at Verbove.
Here they did not truly push home the attack though.
Instead they have now reached the First S-line directly South of Robotyne.
Going this route comes with better main road access, and roads are premiered since they give the advantage of ability to continue the offensive if autumn sets in.
Better to have that ability if it turns out to be needed, waiting for Springtime for Putler is not a good option since they then would have time to build even more S-lines.

Zhaprozhzhia East-West Railline
It dawned on me that I have forgotten to explain something.
There is an East-West Railline sort of in the middle of the entire contested area in Zhaporizhzhia.
North of it you have the big defence lines, South of it you have almost nothing.

This railline goes along the highest elevation, from there to the sea it is downhill.
If Ukraine can get here the Offensive is over since they from then on would have a nice downhill slog and the height advantage.
At this point there is not much Russia can do, and everything down to the coast will be under tube artillery fire control.

This is when Ukraine have won, not at the point of reaching the coast, the coast will come almost per automatic by then.
And there is no chance that any sane general would stay in battle at that point.
So, obviously Russia will try and take horrendous losses and lose anyway.

The Kherson Armsrace
Ukraine is now sending over main battle units.
It is light infantry due to necessity.
Also, they do not need to send anything heavy through.

Remember that there was only B- and C-units there, and they have only rudimentary equipment, and very few artillery pieces.
And the artillery they had is now mostly gone.
The artillery that was originally positioned here to pummel the Ukrainian side and civilians had to be moved to Zhaporizhzhia to cover the losses of artillery systems there.
Dilemmas... I told you about them. :)

This means that light infantry theoretically could take all of Kherson for the time being.

On the Russian side they lost one armoured column from the Castle, it was their last great hope of decissively pushing the Ukrainians out in a decissive battle.
As it was trapped as the bridge found out about gravity and the rest was annihilated in the ensuing traffic jam, that hope was gone.

Then Russia tried to send a column of trucks with infantry of somewhat good B-units that was tasked to man the defence of the Western landbridge to Crimea.
That commander picked a staging area to close to the Ukrainian artillery and they got demolished.

At this point the dilemma slammed shut around the Russians and evolved in a Zugzwang, the point where any move with be worse...
If they did nothing Ukraine would take Kherson, if they did they had to move good units able to fight an infantry war without heavy equipment.

At this point Russia decided to go back to the fundamentals of warfare, a cavalry charge.
Instead of steads and riders they unveiled the wunderwaffe of Russia.
An order was sent out and 1000 VDV turned into car thieves stealing Ladas.
It is the only car nimble enough to get there on crap-roads.
Heck, they can even ford smaller streams with the help of a pair of logs and a sturdy rope.

If anyone would have told me that the most important battle of the war would be fought using infantry in stolen Ladas (on both sides now!), I would have laughed and said that the one saying it was insane.
After all, Russia back then was the most tank'd nation on the planet.
But, here we are.

The place is totally flat.
Perfect for mechanized battles, and instead we are getting cavalry charges with Ladas.
Priceless!

Russian Offensives
In the last 48 hours the Russian offensive attempts have dropped with 90 percent, artillery with 50 percent.
We are also finally seeing large movements of forces from the North towards the south.

After the losses in the last couple of weeks they need heavy units for the Zhap region, and they need lighter units for the Kherson Regions.
So, they are moving a couple of brigades of armour, two brigades of mobiks, and the last VDV brigade (heading for Kherson probably since they left everything heavy behind and stole ladas and left.

I am almost certain that a couple of Ukrainian mechanized Units will attack over in Luhansk taking advantage of things and in an attempt to haul those heavy units back.

Final Tragic Funny
Shoigu has declared that the Russian war is conducted to free the Prisoners of War.
Let us skip the part that those only exist due to Russia starting the war in the first place... and move on to the next news.
Russia has stopped accepting Prisoners of War from Ukraine.
They are not even accepting back wounded Russian soldiers, something that Ukraine must hand over due to the Vienna Convention.

Now read through this paragraph again.
Russia, the epicenter of Russian logic.

IR Mines.png
 
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just watched konstantins thing about the economy, something he's normally pretty good with. sounds like things are going to get interesting in the coming weeks.
 
It would be interesting to see if they can take that IR technology a bit further and use it to get a GPS position of each of those mines then take them out with a drone swarm and a few hand grenades...
 
just watched konstantins thing about the economy, something he's normally pretty good with. sounds like things are going to get interesting in the coming weeks.

A combination of the domestic economy going down the toilet (which does take a while) and the military defeat or at least stalemate is one that usually ends a country’s participation in a war, rather than just the casualties alone.
 
I'm heading back out there on Monday. Flight to KRK then drive to Kyiv with a car of aid and then bring back some people. I've not gone that far in to UA before, will be interesting. People inc my wife say I shouldn't go that far in, but I have to do it. Someone again asked me yesterday, how much are you paid to do this? All volunteer and if we didn't, who would?

Not sure what the aid is, last time I took animal food, the time before drones.
 
I'm heading back out there on Monday. Flight to KRK then drive to Kyiv with a car of aid and then bring back some people. I've not gone that far in to UA before, will be interesting. People inc my wife say I shouldn't go that far in, but I have to do it. Someone again asked me yesterday, how much are you paid to do this? All volunteer and if we didn't, who would?

Not sure what the aid is, last time I took animal food, the time before drones.
You need to change your name to bravegit! Well done sir, a proper hero making a real difference to the poor people(and animals) who have had there lives torn apart by this senseless and pointless war started by the sad little dictator.
 
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