brief frontline stuff
"Urozhaine.
The Russians there finally broke and tried to flee, but the Ukrainian HQ did not want them to go away, so it basically ended up like Izyum.
As the Spetznas and VDV soldiers started to leg it they where hit by intense artillery fire, mainly using cluster bombs.
Very few survived.
Similar scenes are now seen south of Robotyne where more VDV units are hit by cluster ammunition as they try to withdraw.
For natural reasons the Ukrainians are not to keen on having the VDV remain as a fighting force due to their will to stay and fight.
Much better if Russia has to rely on inferior forces.
There are reports of fights between different units as they try to rob each other for resources, especially forces receiving more resources are attacked like the Kadyrovites.
Yesterday there was even a larger shot out between Kadyrovites and a regular unit resulting in several deaths.
Kherson
Yesterday I told you about the strike on Marine column moving from The Castle towards Kozachi Laheri.
As that failed Russia instead tried to send reinforcements from Crimea, mainly the troops guarding the Western Landbridge approach to Crimea.
They sent them to set up shop in a forward base in Radens'k 15 kilometres south of Dniepro.
From there they were expected to move forward in to counter-attack the units in Oleschky and Kozachi Laheri.
It is quite normal to forward base like this to assemble troops and stores, but one always has to ponder how fare the opposition can reach, and be well behind their reach.
Now ponder 15km...
Standard artillery has a reach beyond 30km, and Himars 85ish km (90+ in favourable winds).
Since unlike the Russian commanders you all are endowed with functional brains I assume that you see the pickle that the Russians put themselves in.
Let us just say that hell was dropped on the hapless Russians and leave it at that.
Due to this being less than elite forces with low morale they broke and ran away in every direction imaginable.
The result of 3 major losses in a single week, no supplies coming in, and generally wanting to go home and drink vodka in Tobolsk, resulted in mass scale desertion.
Locals report Russians in underwear hiding in barns, Russians begging the farmers to hide them and handing over their weapons, asking to be taken captive by civilians...
And, many Russians are trying to flee across the salt marshes to Crimea since they know that they would be arrested and shot if they try to cross the bridges or landbridge to Crimea.
The salt marshes are huge, so many fail and drown on their way.
Has this reached the level that would totally remove Russian combat capability in Kherson?
No, but it is a huge problem for the Russians.
So much so that they are now going from house to house searching for deserters, killing them on sight.
There are though few reports of this, and more reports of Russian units sent out to hunt just sitting down behind the nearest bush to relax.
Russia has their problems, but Ukraine does not overly care as they are ferrying over ever more troops to further secure their bridge heads. Problem is obviously the slow rate that they can get over artillery.
It takes time to break down a 155mm artillery piece into parts, ship it over on a dozen rib boats, and then reassemble it.
On top of that the small boats still used can only take a dozen or so shells and charges each.
Each one does though extend their reach, securing more and more, and very soon the Ukrainians will be able to use their barges and the floodgate opens.
How many Ukrainians are there now in Kherson?
Between 1500 and 2000 of them divided into 3 spots.
The bulk of them are though at Oleshky and Kozachi Laheri, with the weight leaning towards the latter.
Why is Kherson important?
My favourite colonel bestowed this upon me:
It is impervious to Rasputitsa, there is just no mud to turn into mud, it is very dry and sandy.
So much so that it is holding a fair sized part that is a desert.
In Kherson Ukraine can go on a continued winter offensive, and they do not even need to break off if they reach Crimea since the same goes for Crimea.
I wish someone had told me that before...
Kersh Bridge
Yesterday Ukraine lobbed six PrSMs against the Kersh Bridge, due to lack of satelite coverage and Russia clamping down on any images from the bridge it is still unclear how much damage was done.
First the Russians claimed that they shot down 8 modified S-200 missiles and that the attack failed.
Then it changed into no damages was caused.
Then they claimed that all of the smoke was caused by their smoke generators in an attempt to safeguard against naval drones.
And yes, we do see 2 huge white clouds from those smoke generators, but this does not explain the amount of black smoke.
One should though note that the bridge is closed for now."