Right, back to business. Kersh.
"So, the reports are starting to come in on the status of the Kersh Bridge.
Russia has now upgraded it to a "special air defence exercise", but is still refusing to admit any hits.
Leaving on smoke generators for more than 24 hours in a row is very risky, they create a lot of heat and there is a definite risk that the diesel droplets can ignite in the air by now.
At best they will soon probably fail anyway.
In the real part of the world it is though confirmed that several columns are damaged with large cracks in them, the span over the shipping channel is damaged, and at least one car deck is damaged.
The rail bridge is severely damaged and all rail traffic is suspended for the time being while repairs are attempted.
The car traffic is suspended while they evaluate the damages.
All shipping is suspended due to the damages to the span across the shipping channel and the risk that the span might drop on a ship.
It is unlikely that the bridge will be able to sustain a follow up attack.
We do not see it becoming operational within the next couple of months.
Panic
The Russians are now in full panic mode.
There are close to two million tourists in Crimea, without food, water, fuel, etcetera.
Remember that the logistics chain to Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia was already down, so they can't feed them the other way.
2 million tourists go through a lot of food and water per every day...
2 million starving Russian citizens with Telegram and VKontakte accounts are now happily sending back complaints about their ruined vacations and general misery.
The optics for the Kremlin is truly awesomely bad.
The Problem is compounded by the lack of ships, and the closure of shipping performed by Ukraine.
Ukraine has openly stated that they are closing down shipping on (if I remember correctly) Wednesday.
After that they will attack ships going for Russia that are military, or suspected dual use.
So, Russia does not even dare put any of them on a ferry even.
Only way home would be probably to walk over the bridge, hopping between damaged sections going from the two car bridge sections...
Regardless it is now apparent to the Russian government that they have to somehow evacuate them.
It is also becoming apparent that they will have to move away their fleet somehow, and probably their army.
Panic does not even come close to describing the situation in Moscow tonight.
The next few days will probably be very interesting.
We will see!"
In addition to this information, it is clear that the biggest problem now for the Russian forces at the front is lack of food and water. My mates' unit have been periodically "borrowing" Russians to interrogate them on the situation in and around "the Castle". The captain they took hadn't had a cup of tea for weeks. The commandos stationed there are resorting to fishing in order to feed themselves .... which my mates troops are allowing them to do. Imagine being so hungry that you walk a kilometer or two to fish, knowing that there are snipers watching you. In the Castle, there is a borehole, so fresh water is not a problem. In the trenches it's another matter. They are collecting rainwater. One of the captured soldiers from the castle said he had paid the equivalent of 10 quid for a tin of beans. In the trenches, there's cannibalism.
You'll note that the Russians are always keen to hold onto settlemennts...... hamlets with small farms etc. This is not just because they offer cover. Each one will have a well or wells, so clean water. In between .... not a lot.
All the small "nipples" of territory gained by the Russians in recent weeks were achieved at great cost. And they have managed to retain none of them as far as I am aware.
The narrative in the media that the counter-offensive is going badly has died down. I think that there is a growing awareness of why the UAF have taken things slowly. We'd all like this finished and for the senseless bloodshed to stop, but whilst those in power in Moscow still have control ... and they seem to have eliminated threats from opposition ... then they will continue on the same path. The alternative for them is death or the ICC. The best hope is for them to be toppled. Maybe there is a little more hope for that now that there is discontent in Moscow .... the war has come to them, and with tourists in Crimea reporting home. The Kremlin has been able, up to now, to project an image that everything is going to plan and that the people are being protected. If it no longer looks like Putin/Shoigu etc can offer that protection, things may change. The image of strong leadership is taking a hit.